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June 04 National Council on Ageing and Older People Population Ageing In Ireland: Projections 2002-2021 Peter Connell and Dennis Pringle Trinity College.

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Presentation on theme: "June 04 National Council on Ageing and Older People Population Ageing In Ireland: Projections 2002-2021 Peter Connell and Dennis Pringle Trinity College."— Presentation transcript:

1 June 04 National Council on Ageing and Older People Population Ageing In Ireland: Projections Peter Connell and Dennis Pringle Trinity College Dublin and National University of Ireland, Maynooth.

2 Population Projections Population projections basically entail making assumptions about the key demographic variables, namely: Population projections basically entail making assumptions about the key demographic variables, namely: –Birth rates, by age and marital status; –Death rates/survivorship, by age and sex; and –Migration rates, by age and sex. These assuptions are then use to extrapolate from the current population to predict future population trends. These assuptions are then use to extrapolate from the current population to predict future population trends.

3 Age and Sex Each of the key demographic variables are influenced by the composition of the population, especially age and sex. Assumptions must therefore be made for each age and sex category. Each of the key demographic variables are influenced by the composition of the population, especially age and sex. Assumptions must therefore be made for each age and sex category. These assumptions are used to estimate the number of births, deaths and movements for each age and sex category over the first inter- censal period (i.e ). These assumptions are used to estimate the number of births, deaths and movements for each age and sex category over the first inter- censal period (i.e ). The procedure is repeated to project the population in 2011, 2016 and The procedure is repeated to project the population in 2011, 2016 and 2021.

4 The Spatial Dimension The key demographic variables also vary over space (e.g. some areas have higher mortality rates than others; some areas experience net in- migration, whereas others experience net out- migration). The key demographic variables also vary over space (e.g. some areas have higher mortality rates than others; some areas experience net in- migration, whereas others experience net out- migration). Unlike other projections which tend to operate at the national level, we have attempted to take account of these geographical variations by analysing the data at a County / County Borough level. Unlike other projections which tend to operate at the national level, we have attempted to take account of these geographical variations by analysing the data at a County / County Borough level.

5 Additional Considerations In addition to total population by age and sex, by county, we estimated future trends in various other features: In addition to total population by age and sex, by county, we estimated future trends in various other features: –Fertility rates; –Marriage rates; –Dependency ratios; and –Percentages living alone.

6 Structure of Presentation I will discuss the assumptions underlying our projections and summarise the main features of our projections of the total population by age, sex and county. I will discuss the assumptions underlying our projections and summarise the main features of our projections of the total population by age, sex and county. Peter will then discuss the projected trends in marital status and people living alone, focussing upon the elderly, and also look at the projected trends in dependency ratios. Peter will then discuss the projected trends in marital status and people living alone, focussing upon the elderly, and also look at the projected trends in dependency ratios.

7 Assumptions (1) Births The Total Period Fertility Rate in Ireland fell from 4.07 in 1964 to 1.85 in 1995, but subsequently increased to almost 2.0. The Total Period Fertility Rate in Ireland fell from 4.07 in 1964 to 1.85 in 1995, but subsequently increased to almost 2.0. We have assumed that the fertility rate will remain higher than the European average, but will decline to 1.80 by We have assumed that the fertility rate will remain higher than the European average, but will decline to 1.80 by These assumptions were used to generate age specific birth rates for each inter-censal period until These assumptions were used to generate age specific birth rates for each inter-censal period until Geographical variations were ignored. Geographical variations were ignored.

8 Assumptions (2) Deaths (1) Age specific death rates were analysed for the period since Age specific death rates were analysed for the period since Little change was observed for people aged less than 45. It was assumed that the death rates for these ages would remain the same until Little change was observed for people aged less than 45. It was assumed that the death rates for these ages would remain the same until Deaths rates are still declining for those aged It is assumed that there will be further improvements for 5 years, but at a slower rate, followed by static rates until Deaths rates are still declining for those aged It is assumed that there will be further improvements for 5 years, but at a slower rate, followed by static rates until For each of the age groups from 55 upwards, it is assumed that improvements will continue until 2021 at the same rate as a weighted average over the period since For each of the age groups from 55 upwards, it is assumed that improvements will continue until 2021 at the same rate as a weighted average over the period since 1981.

9 Assumptions (2) Deaths (2) Under these assumptions, life expectancy at birth will increase from 73.0 in 1996 to 78.3 in 2021 for males, and from 78.5 to 81.5 for females. Under these assumptions, life expectancy at birth will increase from 73.0 in 1996 to 78.3 in 2021 for males, and from 78.5 to 81.5 for females. Death rates tend to fluctuate from year to year for individual counties. However, over the longer term, some counties are observed to have higher death rates than others – all cause SMRs are generally within the range 80 to 120. Death rates tend to fluctuate from year to year for individual counties. However, over the longer term, some counties are observed to have higher death rates than others – all cause SMRs are generally within the range 80 to 120. It was assumed that the geographical variations in mortality observed in the period since 1981 for each age group will remain until It was assumed that the geographical variations in mortality observed in the period since 1981 for each age group will remain until 2021.

10 Assumptions (3) Migration (1) Net migration at national level can be defined as the number of immigrants minus the number of emigrants. Net migration at national level can be defined as the number of immigrants minus the number of emigrants. To make projections at a county level, it is necessary to make assumptions about the number of emigrants leaving each county, and the number of immigrants moving into each county. To make projections at a county level, it is necessary to make assumptions about the number of emigrants leaving each county, and the number of immigrants moving into each county. It is also necessary to make assumptions about internal migration (i.e. movements between counties). It is also necessary to make assumptions about internal migration (i.e. movements between counties).

11 Assumptions (3) Migration (2) The Census provides information on inter-county moves in the previous 12 months. It also provides information on movements into each county from abroad in the previous 12 months. The Census provides information on inter-county moves in the previous 12 months. It also provides information on movements into each county from abroad in the previous 12 months. The Census does not provide information on the moves to abroad from each county – this has to be estimated as a residual from estimates of net migration. The Census does not provide information on the moves to abroad from each county – this has to be estimated as a residual from estimates of net migration. The Census information was used to generate assumptions about the patterns of internal and external moves for each age group. The Census information was used to generate assumptions about the patterns of internal and external moves for each age group. Movement patterns are based on information from both the 1996 and 2002 Censuses. Movement patterns are based on information from both the 1996 and 2002 Censuses.

12 Assumptions (3) Migration (3) Predicting the number of moves is much more problematic than predicting births or deaths. Predicting the number of moves is much more problematic than predicting births or deaths. Ireland has experienced net out-migration for most of its history, but the period since 1996 has seen large-scale in-migration. Ireland has experienced net out-migration for most of its history, but the period since 1996 has seen large-scale in-migration. It is impossible to know whether the period until 2021 will experience a continuation of recent trends, or whether migration will revert to traditional patterns. It is impossible to know whether the period until 2021 will experience a continuation of recent trends, or whether migration will revert to traditional patterns. To take account of this uncertainty, four different projections were made based on four different sets of assumptions about external net migration. To take account of this uncertainty, four different projections were made based on four different sets of assumptions about external net migration.

13 A115,00010,0005,0005,000 A220,00015,00015,00010,000 A325,00017,50017,50010,000 A425,00025,00025,00025,000

14 Specific Problems Time does not permit a detailed discussion of methodological issues, but there were several complicating factors. For example: Time does not permit a detailed discussion of methodological issues, but there were several complicating factors. For example: The 6-year gap between the 1996 and 2002 censuses complicated the tracking of cohorts. The 6-year gap between the 1996 and 2002 censuses complicated the tracking of cohorts. The most recent Life Tables (1995-7) are quite old, and do not provide county-specific estimates. It was therefore necessary to estimate death and survival rates using data from the Annual Reports on Vital Statistics. The most recent Life Tables (1995-7) are quite old, and do not provide county-specific estimates. It was therefore necessary to estimate death and survival rates using data from the Annual Reports on Vital Statistics. This, in turn, necessitated the re-assignment of deaths within age-groups to cohorts. This, in turn, necessitated the re-assignment of deaths within age-groups to cohorts.

15 Projected Population The total population projected for 2021 ranges from a low of 4.57 million (A1) to a high of 4.91 million (A4). The other estimates were 4.70 million (A2) and 4.75 million (A3). The total population projected for 2021 ranges from a low of 4.57 million (A1) to a high of 4.91 million (A4). The other estimates were 4.70 million (A2) and 4.75 million (A3). The population projected for 2021 by CSO in 2001 ranges from 4.04 million (M2F3) to 4.56 million (M1F1). The population projected for 2021 by CSO in 2001 ranges from 4.04 million (M2F3) to 4.56 million (M1F1). The population projected for 2020 by Blackwell and Associates in 2001 for the National Spatial Strategy ranges from 4.39 million (Current Trends 2) to 5.02 million (Economic Growth 1). The population projected for 2020 by Blackwell and Associates in 2001 for the National Spatial Strategy ranges from 4.39 million (Current Trends 2) to 5.02 million (Economic Growth 1). Our best estimate (A1) lies about halfway between the extremes of the other projections. Our best estimate (A1) lies about halfway between the extremes of the other projections.

16 Geographical Patterns Our projections suggest that the largest population increases will be in the east, but that the County Boroughs will not experience much growth –with the exception of Galway. Our projections suggest that the largest population increases will be in the east, but that the County Boroughs will not experience much growth –with the exception of Galway. These projections are strongly influenced by the migration patterns in the period They suggest that the existing County Borough areas are approaching saturation. It is likely that Galway CB will become saturated before These projections are strongly influenced by the migration patterns in the period They suggest that the existing County Borough areas are approaching saturation. It is likely that Galway CB will become saturated before Population increases can be expected in the counties adjoining the CBs due to the continued growth of commuter populations. Population increases can be expected in the counties adjoining the CBs due to the continued growth of commuter populations.

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18 Percentages Of Older People The percentage of males aged 65 or more is projected to increase from 9.7 in 2002 to between 13.9 (A4) and 14.1 (A1). The percentage of males aged 65 or more is projected to increase from 9.7 in 2002 to between 13.9 (A4) and 14.1 (A1). The percentage of females aged 65 or more is projected to increase from 12.5 in 2002 to between 15.8 (A4) and 16.4 (A1) in The percentage of females aged 65 or more is projected to increase from 12.5 in 2002 to between 15.8 (A4) and 16.4 (A1) in It must be remembered that these are higher percentages of a larger total. The number of males aged 65 or more is projected to increase by between 70.2 and 79.1 per cent. The number of females is projected to increase from between 52.2 and 57.6 per cent. It must be remembered that these are higher percentages of a larger total. The number of males aged 65 or more is projected to increase by between 70.2 and 79.1 per cent. The number of females is projected to increase from between 52.2 and 57.6 per cent.

19 Implications The increase in the absolute number of people aged 65 or more will have numerous ramifications (e.g. for the health services). The increase in the absolute number of people aged 65 or more will have numerous ramifications (e.g. for the health services). On the plus side, the percentage of people aged 65 or more is likely to remain under the West European average. On the plus side, the percentage of people aged 65 or more is likely to remain under the West European average. Also, a large proportion of those aged 65 or more in 2021 will be aged less than 75. The impact of the ageing population will probably be much greater by 2031 when the baby boomers will be about 80. Also, a large proportion of those aged 65 or more in 2021 will be aged less than 75. The impact of the ageing population will probably be much greater by 2031 when the baby boomers will be about 80.

20 Geographical Patterns The highest percentages of people aged over 65 will be in the west. The highest percentages of people aged over 65 will be in the west. The County Boroughs will generally tend to have lower percentages (except Dublin for females). The County Boroughs will generally tend to have lower percentages (except Dublin for females). Many of the areas with low percentages have large populations, so the map may give a misleading impression of the need for services. Many of the areas with low percentages have large populations, so the map may give a misleading impression of the need for services. However, it also suggests that areas with low and dispersed populations will have higher percentages of people requiring services. However, it also suggests that areas with low and dispersed populations will have higher percentages of people requiring services.

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22 June 04 National Council on Ageing and Older People Population projections Population projections by marital status Population projections by marital status Past trends and future assumptions Past trends and future assumptions Changing patterns among older age groups Changing patterns among older age groups Projections of older people living alone Projections of older people living alone Geographical patterns of those living alone Geographical patterns of those living alone Dependency ratios – some international comparisons Dependency ratios – some international comparisons

23 Martial status – past trends and future assumptions Marriage rate has stabilised at 5.0 per thousand from 4.3 per thousand in 1995 Marriage rate has stabilised at 5.0 per thousand from 4.3 per thousand in 1995 Later age of marriage. 83% females aged 30 to 34 were married in 1986 compared to 60% in 2002 Later age of marriage. 83% females aged 30 to 34 were married in 1986 compared to 60% in 2002 Assumption – slow decline in marriage rate. 53% of females aged 30 to 34 married in Assumption – slow decline in marriage rate. 53% of females aged 30 to 34 married in Gradual decline in total fertility rate but will remain above that of most western European countries. Gradual decline in total fertility rate but will remain above that of most western European countries. Rising rates of martial separation. In % of females aged 40 to 54 recorded as separated or divorced. Assumption – trend evident in to continue to 2011 then increase more slowly. Rising rates of martial separation. In % of females aged 40 to 54 recorded as separated or divorced. Assumption – trend evident in to continue to 2011 then increase more slowly. Future martial status of older population easier to project based on current population aged 45 and over. Future martial status of older population easier to project based on current population aged 45 and over.

24 Projected change in population by marital status, and over and over and over SingleMarried Widowed

25 Percentage change in males and females by marital status, Slight increase in number of single males; fall in number of single females of 75 and over Over 80% increase in married males aged 65 to 74 Over 70% increase in married females aged 65 to 74

26 Changing composition of the older population, As a proportion of all 65 and over Single people will fall from 18% to 11% Married people will rise from 49% to 60% Widowed people will fall from 33% to 28%

27 Martial status of older population Population 65 and over to increase by 262,000. Population 65 and over to increase by 262,000. Married persons 65 and over to increase by 204,000. Married persons 65 and over to increase by 204,000. Proportion of older people who are single to fall from more than 1 in 6 to 1 in 9 Proportion of older people who are single to fall from more than 1 in 6 to 1 in 9 Number of older people separated to rise from 9,000 to 60,000 (8% of older population). Number of older people separated to rise from 9,000 to 60,000 (8% of older population).

28 Geographical patterns – single older people Overall number of single older people to rise marginally – 77,000 to 80,000 Overall number of single older people to rise marginally – 77,000 to 80,000 Most of increase to take place in Dublin hinterland – 6,500 to 11,500 Most of increase to take place in Dublin hinterland – 6,500 to 11,500 Numbers in west and north west to remain constant – 18,000 to 18,500 Numbers in west and north west to remain constant – 18,000 to 18,500 Sharp decline in proportion of single older men in this region – from 28% to 21% Sharp decline in proportion of single older men in this region – from 28% to 21%

29 Projected numbers of older people living alone Growing propensity of older people to live alone Growing propensity of older people to live alone Up to 2006 growing propensity of single and widowed to live alone cancelled out by growing proportion of marrieds. Up to 2006 growing propensity of single and widowed to live alone cancelled out by growing proportion of marrieds. Overall number of older people living alone to almost double Overall number of older people living alone to almost double Proportion living alone will increase from 25% to 30%. Proportion living alone will increase from 25% to 30%.

30 Geographical patterns of older people living alone

31 Geographical patterns of increase in numbers of older people living alone, Change % change MalesFemalesMalesFemales Dublin Co % Kildare % Meath % Wicklow % Galway City %

32 Historic and projected trends in Irish dependency ratios Projected Accelerating increase in old age dependency ratio after 2011 Young dependency ration stabilising after sustained fall up to 2002 Overall dependency ratio projected to rise after 2006

33 Irelands old age dependency ratio – some international comparisons Irelands old age dependency ratio very low relative to other developed countries Internationally, this dependency ratio projected to increase significantly by 2020 (UN) Projected Irish ratio in 2021 similar to current situation in some European countries – see UK, Spain, France


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