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C LIMATE C HANGE AND A RMED C ONFLICT : T HE F UTURE IS N OT S O F AR - O FF Jim Lee, American University Innovations in Student Leadership Conference,

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Presentation on theme: "C LIMATE C HANGE AND A RMED C ONFLICT : T HE F UTURE IS N OT S O F AR - O FF Jim Lee, American University Innovations in Student Leadership Conference,"— Presentation transcript:

1 C LIMATE C HANGE AND A RMED C ONFLICT : T HE F UTURE IS N OT S O F AR - O FF Jim Lee, American University Innovations in Student Leadership Conference, Georgetown, February 2010

2 L ONG T ERM AND S HORT T ERM P ERSPECTIVES Forecasts and Scenarios of Climate Change and Conflict over the next 100 years Forecasts and Scenarios of Climate Change and Conflict over the next 20 years

3 R E -T HINK THE W ORLD : IPCC R EGIONS

4 T EMPERATURE F ORECASTS IN 2100

5 P RECIPITATION F ORECASTS IN 2100

6 P OST -1945 C ONFLICT H ISTORY (U SING SIPRI)

7 F UTURE TO 2015 C ONFLICTS (U SING DOD)

8 H OT AND C OLD W ARS Hot Wars War of Contraction Livelihood conflict Ancient Conflict Developing Countries Cold Wars War of Expansion Militarized conflict New Conflict Developed Countries

9 C LIMATE C HANGE AND C ONFLICT : H OT (O LD ) AND C OLD (N EW ) T ENSION B ELTS

10 F OUR S HORT T ERM T HREATS 1. Moving Borders 2. Cloud Seeding 3. Polar Passages 4. African Livelihood and Food Security

11 1. M OVING M OUNTAIN B ORDERS

12 2. C LOUD S EEDING A ROUND THE W ORLD (NCAR)

13 3. P OLAR P ASSAGES (U. T EXAS )

14 4 A. A FRICA G ROWING S EASONS (2050)

15 4 B. P OPULATION DENSITIES IN A FRICA

16 I N SUM … 1. Climate change will work with other social factors to create conflict. 2. Conflict will have its own impetus that climate change will accelerate. 3. Forecasting is a politically- influenced process, but there are some clear typologies of behavior. 4. There are on-going, impending, and possible conflicts. These new confluences have already begun.

17 C ONTACT I NFORMATION jlee@american.edu James R. Lee, Climate Change and Armed Conflict: Hot and Cold Wars (Routledge, 2009) Inventory of Conflict and Environment (ICE) in Mandala projects http://www1.american.edu/ted/ICE/index. html Hot and Cold War Project http://www1.american.edu/ted/ICE/climat echange/hotcoldwar.html


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