Presentation on theme: "The Importance of Being Earnest: A review of the affluent case."— Presentation transcript:
The Importance of Being Earnest: A review of the affluent case
Retirement Portfolio risk Market returns Policy regarding taxation, savings & entitlements Longevity Employment: earnings and duration Consumption vs. savings OUT OF YOUR CONTROL SOME CONTROL TOTAL CONTROL 1 The retirement equation
The Browns: Lets look at some factors under their control The Browns Have one working spouse that since 1972 consistently earns 6x the median income (in 2012, 6x MI = $340,000) Buy a home once they save enough for a down payment, and which they own free and clear by retirement Make annual pre-tax 401(k) contributions equal to 6% of wages, which an employer matches up to a 3% rate (subject to prevailing caps) Put aside another 4.5% of after-tax income in a savings account, for a total lifetime savings rate of 22% (2%–3% over averages for their income demographic) Invest in a balanced portfolio of 65% equities at age 25, declining to 45% by age 65 (remainder in fixed income) Are subject to an effective Federal tax rate (incl. payroll taxes) of 20%, and a 3% state tax Intend to spend 80% of their pre-retirement after-tax, after-savings cash flow in retirement 2 The above example is hypothetical and is shown for illustrative purposes only.
Sources of spending conservation often seen in affluent families: Mortgage, paid off Opportunity to downsize real estate needs Gifts/tuition for children no longer needed, now in workforce Work-related apparel, transportation, entertainment and food expenses Gas, insurance and maintenance expenses on a second car Home improvements Charitable contributions Costs of supporting aging parents eventually fade How do affluent families cut 20% from their pre-retirement spending? 3
Baseline case Source: TPC, BEA, NAR, BLS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Census, Bloomberg. Shown for illustrative purposes only. 4
Where they get their cash flow from 5 Source: TPC, BEA, NAR, BLS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Census, Bloomberg. Shown for illustrative purposes only.
6 People that want to or have to retire early, or live much longer than expected? People that save a lot, but not in the most efficient vehicles, either by choice or due to lack of access? People that invest too conservatively? People that spend too much money? People that want to spend more than 80% of pre-retirement income after they retire? Future policy risks regarding entitlements and taxation? What are the benefits and disadvantages of Roth 401(k) plans, annuities, non-qualified deferred compensation plans, Sep IRAs and non-deductible IRAs? That all looks fine, but what about…
7 Early retirement can be costly, even for diligent savers Source: TPC, BEA, NAR, BLS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Census, Bloomberg. Shown for illustrative purposes only.
8 Comparing different means of saving Source: TPC, BEA, NAR, BLS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Census, Bloomberg. Shown for illustrative purposes only.
9 If you manage your own future, you cannot under-invest… Source: TPC, BEA, NAR, BLS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Census, Bloomberg. Shown for illustrative purposes only.
10 …or over-spend Source: TPC, BEA, NAR, BLS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Census, Bloomberg. Shown for illustrative purposes only.
For the big spender, its hard to invest out of an under-saving hole 11 Source: TPC, BEA, NAR, BLS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Census, Bloomberg. Shown for illustrative purposes only.
12 A comment on savings consistency – The impact of periodic savings lapses For purposes of highlighting the impact of savings lapses, the baseline case in this chart does not include an initial home purchase. This has the impact of increasing pre-retirement financial assets, from which the impact of savings lapses can be more readily examined. Shown for illustrative purposes only.
13 So far, we have examined factors under the Browns control. Now lets consider the ones that arent Retirement Portfolio risk Market returns Policy regarding taxation, savings & entitlements Longevity Employment: earnings and duration Consumption vs. savings OUT OF YOUR CONTROL SOME CONTROL TOTAL CONTROL
14 Example: Equity market returns Source: Robert J. Shiller data set, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Shown for illustrative purposes only.
15 And another: The national debate about the debt and the deficit Source: CBO, OMB, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Shown for illustrative purposes only.
16 Potentially adverse changes that could affect the Browns of the future Potential outcome in the future: Social Security: Changing indexation results in payments lagging behind overall inflation by 0.4% per year. Benefits are means-tested, and the eligibility age for full benefits is raised from 66 to 69 Medicare: An affluent family must purchase supplemental Medicare insurance at a cost of 2% of pre-retirement income Taxation: Tax rates on all brackets revert to higher pre-2001 levels. In addition, Pease limitations on itemized deductions are increased (3% exclusion raised to 4%, $300k threshold lowered to $250k) Restrictions on the use of pretax savings plans: Limits are applied to 401(k) contributions as per the Bowles-Simpson proposals (the 20/20 rule), over-riding existing caps
17 The Browns of the future: Baseline case, subject to policy and market risks Source: TPC, BEA, NAR, BLS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Census, Bloomberg. Shown for illustrative purposes only.
18 Assessing the relative impact of policy, market and behavioral changes to retirement assets Bowles-Simpson limits applied to pre-tax 401(k) contributions Cost of supplemental Medicare insurance premium equal to 2% of pre-retirement income Social Security means-testing and eligibility delayed by one year Tax rates revert back to higher pre-2001 levels Savings rate lowered by 3% Shift of 5% from equities to fixed income Annualized equity market returns are 1% lower Impact of: Source: TPC, BEA, NAR, BLS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Census, Bloomberg. Shown for illustrative purposes only.
19 Some conclusions for affluent families The importance of being earnest Know what your savings rate is, including pre-tax contributions to savings plans. It should be > 15% Monitor investment risk in assets put aside for your retirement. Under-investing and over-spending is a potentially toxic combination Accelerating retirement by even 2–3 years can substantially change the trajectory of your retirement assets, and requires adjustments in advance to your savings, or after the fact to your spending 401(k) plans can be more effective than IRAs due to higher limits and employer matching on the former The prior four decades of equity returns benefitted from the Volcker disinflation, a phenomenon that is unlikely to repeat itself. As a result, real returns over inflation may be modestly lower than in the past Congress has focused much of the deficit reduction burden on affluent families earning more than $250,000 in adjusted gross income. In the future, they may continue to do so, through policies which increase effective tax rates, and limit pre-tax contributions to savings. They may also means-test the largest component of retiree spending (medical) Lifespans are gradually increasing, increasing the amount of assets families need in retirement
20 Some rules of thumb: Many people underestimate the importance of their investment and saving decisions Breakeven calculations on working, spending, investing and saving Our overly conservative investor would need to spend 15–20% less in retirement than in the baseline case, or increase the lifetime savings by 5–7% to maintain the same wealth cushion Accelerating retirement by 2 years requires either a lifetime savings rate thats 2% higher, or a 15% further reduction in spending in retirement For every 1% decline in lifetime savings rates, real equity returns need to rise by roughly 0.5% Every additional year you work adds financial assets sufficient to support an additional 5 years in retirement Moving from a high-tax to a low-tax state allows for post-retirement spending to rise by 4%–5% Families would have to work for 2 more years to offset the impact of all our adverse policy changes By the time the Browns retire, 70% of their financial assets will come from their investment decisions, rather than from their initial contributions to savings Ratio of retirement spending to lifetime savings contributions, in 2012 dollars: 3.0x
21 Saving is a constant battle against the temptation to over-spend Perhaps more than any other country, the United States effectively encourages its citizens to spend, which may be why consumption is so high relative to GDP (71%). Examples of pro-spending policies include: Lower sales, VAT, excise and import duties on a wide range of goods and services, including fuel, food, wine, electronics, accountants and lawyers Favorable tax treatment of housing (mortgage interest deduction, capital gains exemption on sale of residence), which results in lower population densities, greater suburban sprawl and increased household spending on home improvements, transportation, etc. Lack of single-payer health care which leads to greater healthcare consumption (U.S. private sector healthcare expenditures are more than twice every other OECD country) The private sector finances most post-graduate education expenditures, unlike other OECD countries
Additional options to invest with pre-tax and after-tax dollars OptionComment Roth 401(k)Roth 401(k) plans are like traditional 401(k) plans, but involve contribution of after-tax dollars to an account that compounds tax free, and which is not subject to taxation upon withdrawal. Largest benefits generally accrue to families that anticipate higher tax rates in retirement, and families whose intended contributions are higher than prevailing 401(k) caps. Since traditional and Roth 401(k) contribution limits are the same, the latter allows greater value to compound since it is funded after-tax. Non-qualified deferred compensation plans Contribute pre-tax dollars into a tax-deferred account without being subject to IRS contribution limits; withdrawals are taxed at ordinary rates. The pre-tax compounding is beneficial to wealth dynamics, but families should be conscious of unsecured credit risks and monitor concentrations accordingly. Non-deductible IRAs Benefits vs. after-tax savings: the IRA compounds on a pre-tax basis. However, some income that would have been taxed as capital gains is taxed as ordinary income upon withdrawal. The net benefit depends on the time horizon (the longer the better), and the nature of the investment in the IRA (the less tax-efficient, the better). AnnuitiesSame as non-deductible IRAs, but typically with higher fees Sep IRA, Solo 401(k) For self-employed individuals, who can effectively save more in these plans than non-self- employed individuals subject to IRS limits on employee contributions, and who benefit from traditionally smaller employer contributions. However, the potential tax savings need to be weighed against a plans administrative complexity, and the cost of contribution requirements that might have to be extended to other employees. 23
24 What it takes to spend 100% of pre-retirement income in retirement Source: TPC, BEA, NAR, BLS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Census, Bloomberg. Shown for illustrative purposes only.
25 Viable retirement cash flow targets under baseline case: Before and after potential policy and market shifts Shown for illustrative purposes only. Using historical data Using the policy and equity market assumptions for the future discussed on pages 14 and 16
Taxes Source: IRS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Shown for illustrative purposes only. 26
Equities Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Shown for illustrative purposes only. 27