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STATISTICS FOR MANAGERS LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION BASICS OBJECTIVES

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INTRODUCTION Statistical thinking Logical reasoning Data needed and proxies How to get the data Statistical tools Numerology

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INTRODUCTION Good managers and directors get impress by intelligent comments (you can fool mediocre managers by appealing to his/her ego!!!) Grading in class: good comments and group work is also rewarded. I try to measure everything!!!

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BASICS I

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BASIC PROBLEM I Endogeneity Circularity Egg and chicken Causality and correlation: two very different concepts!!

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BASIC PROBLEM I Interpretation of any graph/table implies many assumptions. However, these assumptions are almost never explicit. Assumptions for the interpretation of the previous graph? Direction Omission

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BASICS II 1936 US presidential election Sampling list: mail out ballot cards to residential telephone subscribers and owners of cars. Result of the poll: Landon (republican) will win with 57% of the vote over Roosevelt (democract).

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BASICS II Outcome of the election: Roosevelt won with 62.5% of the votes (523 of the 531 electoral votes!!) What happened? GROUP EXERCISE

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BASICS PROBLEM II Sample selection problem. Training courses for employees. GROUP WORK

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BASICS PROBLEM II Therapy of hormonal replacement for women with menopause. Does it work? Possible problem. Solution. Why did the result with observational data was wrong? GROUP EXERCISE

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SOLUTION if possible Randomized experiment. Example. In business this alternative is NEVER AVAILABLE. Look for other designs: “clever” regression.

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IMPORTANT!! Statistical methods are never wrong! It is their application by clumsy, un- experienced or careless researchers that makes the results wrong. Remember: if you get the design /assumptions /data right the results will always be right.

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OBJECTIVES Logical thinking using statistical facts. Proper interpretation of statistical results Posing hypothesis and checking their likelihood. Sources of data.

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