Presentation on theme: "Learning from the energy transition in four OECD Countries Germany, Italy, Japan, Switzerland Dr Fulcieri Maltini Dr Jean-Roger Mercier November 2012."— Presentation transcript:
Learning from the energy transition in four OECD Countries Germany, Italy, Japan, Switzerland Dr Fulcieri Maltini Dr Jean-Roger Mercier November 2012
Overview Germany, Italy, Japan and Switzerland are currently implementing an energy transition away from nuclear power and giving priority to energy conservation and renewables, Motivations behind these transitions vary and so do their pace, costs and fundings, This presentation tries to distill lessons from these transitions that can apply to Europe and France.
Germany - background Historically, a divided country after WW2 reuniting in 1990 and requiring high power supply for its reunification and industrial development: 4,140 TWh/year in 1990 Politically, a strong surge of the Green party (« die Grünen ») that makes, from the onset, nuclear phasing-out as one of its key targets A strong energy efficiency policy has allowed a 10% power demand reduction, with only 3,715 TWh consumed in 2011
Germany - Strategy In 2000, the socialist-green coalition puts a moratorium on nuclear power in the country The decision is reversed by the Merkel Government in 2010, at a time when nuclear produces 11% of Germany’s primary energy And in 2011, the political decision comes to phase out nuclear entirely with several potential deadlines,
Germany – the plan(s) Energiewende (energy transition) becomes a household name and the world looks at Germany for guidance and enlightment March of 2011: 8 nuclear plants are closed down Summer of 2011: the legal package adopted projects the end of nuclear generation by 2022 Many challenges have been identified
Germany – objectives for 2050 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission reduction: 80 to 95% (ref. 1990) Renewables in the overall energy balance 60% Ditto in gross power production 80% Primary energy production (ref 2008) - 50% Electric power consumption (ditto)- 25%
Germany 2050 – Renewables Lion’s share to wind170 TWh (113 offshore) Biomass and photovoltaics40 TWh each Hydro: stable at 24 TWh In all, 80% of domestic power production, and needing creative network management to compensate for volatility Another huge challenge: extending the transmission grid at a pace of 470 km/year vs 35 at present.
Opportunities and euros The decentralized management of the country opens up great local opportunies and several « cantons » are already generating more energy than they consume (« positive energy ») DIW’s prognosis: up to 800 billion € to spend over the coming 50 years. Increases of consumer prices have begun and are confronted with criticism and protests.
Italy - Background End of WW2: Italy relies almost exclusively on hydro (88% of power generation) 1990: thermal power has taken over the lead (63%), with hydro down to 16% and electricty imports making up for the rest (12%) After a brief attempt to develop nuclear, the Italian people, in a 1990 referendum following Chernobyl, reject further nuclear power development.
Italy – the historic referendum Under the pressure of the French, the Berlusconi government embarks on a new referendum in 2011, hoping to reintroduce nuclear Over 90% of the voters reject nuclear again and the Italian government moves forward Targets of 17% renewables by 2020, inferior to the European average, are set
Italy – Local Power After the referendum, municipalities and regions are encouraged to develop their own power generation/conservation programs By2012, over 400,000 local power generation units of various dimensions were operational across the country and over 95% municipalities, large cities as well as small villages, were equipped with multiple sources of energy mix
Italy – Renewable present Growth in the number of municipalities equipped with renewable energy generation is spectacular: from 3,190 in 2008 to 7,986 in 2011, As a result, Italy comes second in Europe for solar power generation (12,750 MW vs 24,700 for Germany) Energy mixes are adapted to local resource availability (solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, hydro)
Italy – the pionneer Large solar thermal power generation plants are also being installed and run: 30 MW in Sicily in operation, more planned in this range Wind farms are multiplying and Italy is third produced behind Germany and Spain Biomass use is maximized with various substrates and processes: e.g. fermentation of wine production by-products, biogas distribution in local natural gas grids, biogas in vehicles, ….
Italy – more good news Energy efficiency and conservation are highly developed Smart grids and smart meters (over 30 million units sold and installed) complement the approach As of 2012, 23 municipalities were selling more energy than they were producing Energy storage is diversified and is putting Italy at the forefront of this critical element of Energiewende.
Italy – Towards 2020 - Objectives Primary energy demand - 4% (reference 2010). Stable power demand Renewables 20% of final energy demand and 38% superior of gas’s The required 180 billion € investment to be allocated at 72% for renewables and remaining 28 % for conventional sectors (extraction, oil & gas production and transportation, GNL regazeification and thermal power plant construction)
Japan – Recovering from the trauma The third largest power consumer in the world, Japan started, in the late 40’s with a simple energy mix: coal 50%, hydro 33%. In the early 70’s, nuclear comes into the picture and is hailed as a miracle source for an oil importer, Nuclear share in power production grew from 4% in 1973 to 24% in 2009 in spite of activists’ protest, overheated after each nuclear accident (TMI, Chernobyl)
The Fukushima turning point The vast majority of Japanese, however, were following suit with the nuclear lobby, very well organized under the auspices of the powerful Nippon Keidanren 54 nuclear power plants were in operation in early 2011, And then Fukushima happened and, beyond the human/economic drama, exposed the lack of preparation and the ineffectiveness of TepCo and the Japanese Government
Eighteen months later… The situation is yet to be stabilized in Fukushima and surroundings (e.g. sea pollution) The Japanese government, under the pressure of the street, had to revise and deeply modify its energy plans All nuclear plants were closed and their production rapidly substituted with thermal plants
Prospects Japan will have difficulties meeting its carbon emission reduction targets if the ban on nuclear is confirmed The new target (- 20% by 2030 vs the previous – 25% by 2020) is heavily critized by local activists Japan plans to spend nearly 500 b US$ on renewables in the coming two decades No cost estimate for Energiewende seems to have been produced/discussed
Switzerland - background After WW2, the country was relying primarily on hydro, then attempted to introduce nuclear The accident at the Lucens nuclear experimental power plant in 1969 killed the public sector program In parallel, between 1969 and 1984, the private sector built five nuclear power plants that are in operation and provide 3.2 of the 20 GW national power demand
Switzerland after Fukushima March 25, 2011, the Federal council opts out of nuclear, programming the closing of the 5 existing plants between 2019 and 2034, possibly earlier for Mühlenberg that has similar features with Fukushima The Federal Government is actively preparing a national energy law to be adopted by Parliament in end of 2012 and subjected to referendum in 2014
Key features of the Energiewende Focus on energy efficiency, with targets of demand reduction of 70 TWh and 20 TWh resp. for total energy and electricity demand reduction by 2050 Priority to energy conservation measures in houses and offices Reliance on rapid take-off of a variety of renewables
Parallel processes Three « popular initiatives » launched – Closing of all nuclear plants by 2023 – Cleantech: to accelerate energy efficiency and renewables development – Ecological fiscal reform Several « cantons », opposed to nuclear, have set their own bans (e.g. Geneva which gets 87% of energy from renewables and imports the rest)
Costing The Cleantech initiative has been costed by the University of Lausanne The losers would be importers (0.6 billion CHF over 2012-2030, power producers 3.1 and the Federal Treasury 2.1)… In exchange for 21-26 b CHF increase in GDP, or 2% and the creation of 15,000 jobs
What lessons for France and Europe? France lives in the economic crisis mode. The Fukushima shock has largely been forgotten and the nuclear lobby is strong as ever France is, however, increasingly isolated in the refusal of the Energiewende In the four countries studied here, the Energiewende is in place and central as well as local governments are marching. France’s centralization is also a handicap.
France and Europe Adding to the French delay is the inertia of a system that took 11 years to transpose the European Directive 2001/42 on the environmental assessment on plans and programs in the energy sector The only viable solution can come from Europe, which has the tools and mechanisms to help integrate these Energiewende into a stable and effective system. Will there be the politicial will?