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ACCESS TO FRESH SURFACE WATER UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE CASE STUDY: BLACK SEA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT, BULGARIA Panka Babukova – master student in Management.

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Presentation on theme: "ACCESS TO FRESH SURFACE WATER UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE CASE STUDY: BLACK SEA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT, BULGARIA Panka Babukova – master student in Management."— Presentation transcript:

1 ACCESS TO FRESH SURFACE WATER UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE CASE STUDY: BLACK SEA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT, BULGARIA Panka Babukova – master student in Management of the Hydro-climatic Resources Faculty of Geology and Geography, Sofia University St. Kliment Ohridski

2 CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECTING QUANTITY OF WATER RESOURCES

3 ANNUAL PRECIPITATION CHANGE IN EUROPE Source:

4 PROJECTED CHANGE IN SUMMER PRECIPITATION TO 2080 Source:

5 BLACK SEA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT IN BULGARIA

6 Location Source: Water Management Plan, Black Sea WMD

7 BLACK SEA WMD IN NUMBERS: Area: km² (18.7% of Bulgarian territory); Population: persons /2007/ (17.5% of Bulgarian population); GDP: thousand BGN (15.8% of Bulgarian GDP); GVA: thousand BGN (15.8% of Bulgarian GVA). Source: Water Management Plan, Black Sea WMD

8 ANTHROPOGENIC IMACT ON QUANTITY OF WATER RESOURCES

9 MAIN WATER CONSUMERS Total used water (without cooling water) : thousand m³ SectorTotal used water (thousand m³) Average per year (thousand m³) Share Total used water (without cooling water) % Industry (without cooling) % Agriculture and forestry (including fishery) % *irrigation: 66.73% Households % Service sector % *tourism: 34.85% Source: Water Management Plan, Black Sea WMD

10 QUANTITATIVE STATE OF THE FRESH WATER RESOURCES Renewable freshwater /1930/31–2002/03/: 2412,9.10^6 m³; 12, 5% from national resources; м³ per capita /2003/ /Lazarov, Ziapkov, 2003/.

11 CLIMATE CHANGES IN THE REGION

12 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT: TEMPERATURE Source: Zlatunova D. Sustainable Water Use under Climate Change /Case Study in Bulgaria/

13 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT: PRECIPITATION Source: Zlatunova D. Sustainable Water Use under Climate Change /Case Study in Bulgaria/ Correlation value: 0, 52

14 AVAILABLE FRESH WATER RESOURCES Extreme years with high and low water-level Source: Zlatunova D. Sustainable Water Use under Climate Change /Case Study in Bulgaria/ WMDWET YEARSDRY YEARS Black sea 1955/561954/551966/671989/901948/491984/85 R (10 6 m3) P % of normal Bulgaria1962/631954/551955/561989/901993/941992/93 R (10 6 m3) P % of normal

15 AVAILABLE FRESH WATER RESOURCES Water manageme nt districts Years with:Water resources 10 6 m 3 Total Water Abstraction 10 6 m 3 Rates of water abstraction (%) Black SeaHigh water level Average water level Low water level BulgariaHigh water level Average water level Low water level Source: Zlatunova D. Sustainable Water Use under Climate Change /Case Study in Bulgaria/

16 WATER LOSSES AND SUPPLY RESTRICTION Source: National Statistical Institute Bulgaria

17 CONCLUSIONS AND PROGNOSIS Increase of urban population Growing life standard More water supplied population Increased irrigation water by 10% - 20% Industry remains in stagnation INCREASED WATER CONSUMPTION DECREASE OF THE WATER RESOURCES Conflict People - EnvironmentConflict People - People Positive temperature anomalies Periods of decreased precipitation

18 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!


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