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Macroeconomic Policies in Open Economy International Economics Chapter 9.

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Presentation on theme: "Macroeconomic Policies in Open Economy International Economics Chapter 9."— Presentation transcript:

1 Macroeconomic Policies in Open Economy International Economics Chapter 9

2 Chapter 9 Macroeconomic Policies in Open Economy 9.1 Internal Balance and External Balance 9.2 Policy Mix to Achieve Internal Balance and External Balance 9.3 Effects of Macroeconomic Policies under Fixed Exchange Rates 9.4 Effects of Macroeconomic Policies under Floating Exchange Rates

3 9.1 Internal Balance and External Balance Internal Balance and External Balance  Internal balance means (1) full employment, (2) no inflation, or more realistically, low inflation, and (3) steady economic growth.  External balance is the achievement of neither BP deficits nor BP surpluses.

4 9.1 Internal Balance and External Balance

5 Policy Instruments  Expenditure-changing policies include fiscal policy and monetary policy, altering the level of aggregate demand for goods and services which are either produced domestically or imported.  Expenditure-switching policies refer to exchange-rate policies, including appreciation or depreciation of a currency, which shifts the direction of demand between domestic output and imports.

6 9.1 Internal Balance and External Balance  When an economy is located in the disequilibrium zones of Quadrant I and III, expenditure-switching policies can restore the economy to overall balance. In Quadrant I: An appreciation of its currency decreases the international competitiveness of its goods and leads to a fall in export, which, on the one hand, decreases its BP surplus, and on the other hand, reduces its aggregate demand and thus output, lessening its inflation. In Quadrant III: A depreciation can restore the overall balance.

7 9.1 Internal Balance and External Balance  Tinbergen Rule One economic goal could be attained by at least one effective policy tool. Thus, to achieve n independent goals, we need no less than n effective policy tools.

8 9.1 Internal Balance and External Balance  Meade Conflict Under fixed exchange rate system, a country cannot change its exchange rate and thus it loses expenditure switching policy tools. In this condition, the goals of internal balance and external balance may become conflicting since the government now can only resort to expenditure changing policies.

9 9.1 Internal Balance and External Balance –In Quadrant I, the economy will meet the conflict between internal balance and external balance. »A contractionary expenditure changing policy will reduce output and income, decreasing the inflation and restoring internal balance. But reduced national income then weakens imports, enlarging its BP surplus and worsening its external imbalance. »If the government uses an expansionary expenditure-changing policy, the external balance can be achieved but the internal economy will be imbalanced with more severe inflation. – In Quadrant III, the economy will also meet the conflict between internal balance and external balance.

10 9.1 Internal Balance and External Balance In a fixed exchange rate system where expenditure-switching policies cannot be fulfilled, we need two independent policy tools to achieve both internal balance and external balance and thus solve Meade Conflict.

11 Chapter 9 Macroeconomic Policies in Open Economy 9.1 Internal Balance and External Balance 9.2 Policy Mix to Achieve Internal Balance and External Balance 9.3 Effects of Macroeconomic Policies under Fixed Exchange Rates 9.4 Effects of Macroeconomic Policies under Floating Exchange Rates

12 9.2 Policy Mix to Achieve Internal Balance and External Balance Mundell Assignment Rule  Fiscal policy and monetary policy have different effects on internal economy and external economy. So even under fixed exchange rate system, it is likely to utilize fiscal policy and monetary policy to achieve both internal and external balance.  Fiscal policy and monetary policy may affect national income and the current account to the same extent. But they have different influence on the interest rate and the capital and financial account. Contractionary fiscal policy can reduce the interest rate, causing capital outflows and worsening the capital and financial account. Contractionary monetary policy will increase the interest rate, causing capital inflows and improving the capital and financial account.

13 9.2 Policy Mix to Achieve Internal Balance and External Balance  IB slopes downward: (T-G)↑=> Y↓, requiring r↓ =>I↑. Right to IB: Unemployment; Left to IB: Inflation.  EB slopes downward: (T-G)↑=> Y↓ =>M↓, requiring r↓ =>capital outflow. Above EB: BP surplus; Below IB: BP deficit.

14 9.2 Policy Mix to Achieve Internal Balance and External Balance  Point A: BP deficit with unemployment. Ms↓=> (1) r↑ => capital inflow => KA↑; (2) Y↓=> M↓=> CA↑ =>B: EB + unemployment. G↑ => Y↑ => C: IB + BP deficit. Finally, Ms↓ + G↑ => E: IB + EB

15 9.2 Policy Mix to Achieve Internal Balance and External Balance  Conclusion: Fiscal policy should be assigned to solve internal imbalance while monetary policy should be assigned to solve external imbalance. If policies are wrongly assigned, the economy will diverge from the overall balance.

16 9.2 Policy Mix to Achieve Internal Balance and External Balance Swan Model  Mundell Assignment Rule solves Meade Conflict under fixed exchange rate system by assigning fiscal policy and monetary policy effectively.  Swan Model aims to achieve both internal balance and external balance by combining expenditure-changing policies and expenditure-switching policies when the exchange rate can be changed.

17 9.2 Policy Mix to Achieve Internal Balance and External Balance  IB slopes downward: eP*/P↑=>NX↑, requiring A↓=>Y↓. Right to IB: inflation; Left to IB: unemployment.  EB slopes upward: eP*/P↑=> NX↑, requiring A↑=>M↑. Above EB: BP surplus; Below EB: BP deficit.

18 9.2 Policy Mix to Achieve Internal Balance and External Balance  Point A: BP deficit with unemployment. Expansionary expenditure-changing policy to deal with the internal unemployment; Depreciation of domestic currency to restore its balance of payments.

19 Chapter 9 Macroeconomic Policies in Open Economy 9.1 Internal Balance and External Balance 9.2 Policy Mix to Achieve Internal Balance and External Balance 9.3 Effects of Macroeconomic Policies under Fixed Exchange Rates 9.4 Effects of Macroeconomic Policies under Floating Exchange Rates

20 9.3 Effects of Macroeconomic Policies under Fixed Exchange Rates IS-LM-BP Model  IS curve slopes downward. G↑=> IS shifts rightward; G↓=> IS shifts leftward.  LM curve slopes upward. Ms↑=> LM shifts rightward; Ms↓=> LM shifts leftward.

21 9.3 Effects of Macroeconomic Policies under Fixed Exchange Rates  Right to BP: BP deficit; Left to BP: BP surplus. (a): Perfect capital immobility; (b): Imperfect capital mobility; (c): Perfect capital mobility.

22 9.3 Effects of Macroeconomic Policies under Fixed Exchange Rates Effects of Fiscal Policy under Fixed Exchange Rate  Fiscal policy has no effect on economy under fixed exchange rate when capital is perfectly immobile, only to find a higher interest rate.  Fiscal policy has some effect on economy under fixed exchange rate when capital is imperfectly mobile. But the extent of effect relies on the sensibility of capital flow to changes of the interest rate. The more sensible the capital flow is, the larger the effect of fiscal policy is.  Fiscal policy has perfect effect on economy under fixed exchange rate when capital is perfectly mobile.

23 A. Case of Perfect Capital Immobility

24 B. Case of Imperfect Capital Mobility (BP>LM)

25 B. Case of Imperfect Capital Mobility (BP=LM)

26 B. Case of Imperfect Capital Mobility (BP { "@context": "http://schema.org", "@type": "ImageObject", "contentUrl": "http://images.slideplayer.com/1388933/9/slides/slide_25.jpg", "name": "B. Case of Imperfect Capital Mobility (BP

27 C. Case of Perfect Capital Mobility

28 9.3 Effects of Macroeconomic Policies under Fixed Exchange Rates Effects of Monetary Policy under Fixed Exchange Rate  Monetary policy has no effect on economy under fixed exchange rate regardless of the extent of capital mobility.

29 A. Case of Perfect Capital Immobility

30 B. Case of Imperfect Capital Mobility

31 C. Case of Perfect Capital Mobility

32 Chapter 9 Macroeconomic Policies in Open Economy 9.1 Internal Balance and External Balance 9.2 Policy Mix to Achieve Internal Balance and External Balance 9.3 Effects of Macroeconomic Policies under Fixed Exchange Rates 9.4 Effects of Macroeconomic Policies under Floating Exchange Rates

33 Under floating exchange rate, changes of the exchange rate will cause shifts of BP curve.  A depreciation of domestic currency leads to a rightward shift of BP curve.  An appreciation leads to a leftward shift of BP curve.

34 9.4 Effects of Macroeconomic Policies under Floating Exchange Rates  On BP curve, r 0 and Y 0 keeps the economy in external balance.  A depreciation results in more export and less import, leading to a surplus of the balance of payments.  To digest the surplus of the balance of payments, national income needs to grow in order to encourage more import.  At any other interest rates, the same thing happens.

35 9.4 Effects of Macroeconomic Policies under Floating Exchange Rates Effects of Fiscal Policy under Floating Exchange Rate  The effect of fiscal policy under floating exchange rate is inversely proportional to the extent of capital mobility. The less mobile capital is, the stronger effect fiscal policy has.

36 A. Case of Perfect Capital Immobility

37 B. Case of Imperfect Capital Mobility (BP>LM)

38 B. Case of Imperfect Capital Mobility (BP=LM)

39 B. Case of Imperfect Capital Mobility (BP { "@context": "http://schema.org", "@type": "ImageObject", "contentUrl": "http://images.slideplayer.com/1388933/9/slides/slide_38.jpg", "name": "B. Case of Imperfect Capital Mobility (BP

40 C. Case of Perfect Capital Mobility

41 9.4 Effects of Macroeconomic Policies under Floating Exchange Rates Effects of Monetary Policy under Floating Exchange Rate  Monetary policy has perfect effect on economy under floating exchange rate regardless of the extent of capital mobility.

42 A. Case of Perfect Capital Immobility

43 B. Case of Imperfect Capital Immobility

44 C. Case of Perfect Capital Mobility

45 9.4 Effects of Macroeconomic Policies under Floating Exchange Rates A Summary of Mundell-Flemming Model

46 9.4 Effects of Macroeconomic Policies under Floating Exchange Rates Mundell Incompatible Trinity  One country cannot have a fixed exchange rate system, free capital movement and an independent monetary policy at the same time.


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