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Asia-Pacific Mega Trends Charles E. Morrison, East-West Center Half Moon Bay, January 2010.

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Presentation on theme: "Asia-Pacific Mega Trends Charles E. Morrison, East-West Center Half Moon Bay, January 2010."— Presentation transcript:

1 Asia-Pacific Mega Trends Charles E. Morrison, East-West Center Half Moon Bay, January 2010

2 Connecting Dots: Three Mega-Disasters December 2004: Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami: 230,000 dead December 2004: Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami: 230,000 dead October 2005: Kashmir Earthquake: 80,000 dead October 2005: Kashmir Earthquake: 80,000 dead May 2008: Sichuan Earthquake: 70,000 dead May 2008: Sichuan Earthquake: 70,000 dead

3 Tectonic Plates in Southern Asia INDIA PLATE EURASIA PLATE Chengdu Aceh Kashmir Kathmandu

4 Human Change in 40 Years

5 Certainties/Uncertainties Near Certainties: The “rise” of Asia The “rise” of Asia Demographic changes Demographic changes Pressures on resources and the environment Pressures on resources and the environment New health challenges New health challengesUncertainties: Sustainable development? Sustainable development? Social and political evolution Social and political evolution International relations International relations Asia-Pacific role in addressing global issues Asia-Pacific role in addressing global issues

6 The Rise/Re-rise of Asia Share of Gross World Product (PPP) From “World Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, A.D.,” by Angus Maddison; Asia includes South Asia

7 Labor Productivity Growth WORLD: 10.9 percent WORLD: 10.9 percent Sub-Saharan Africa: -1.5 percent Sub-Saharan Africa: -1.5 percent Middle East: 0.9 percent Middle East: 0.9 percent Latin America: 1.2 percent Latin America: 1.2 percent Industrialized economies: 14.9 percent Industrialized economies: 14.9 percent Transition economies: 25.4 percent Transition economies: 25.4 percent Southeast Asia: 21.6 percent Southeast Asia: 21.6 percent South Asia: 37.9 percent South Asia: 37.9 percent East Asia: 75.0 percent East Asia: 75.0 percent International Labor Organization

8 Growth of Tertiary Enrollment (Enrollment Ratios, ) Source: World Bank

9 Demographic Tectonics

10 China’s Population in Comparative Perspective

11 Fertility Decline Total Fertility Rate: Babies per Female East-West Center, The Future of Population in Asia, 2002, p. 10.

12 “Flight from Marriage:” (Never Married Rates: Female, Age 35-39) Adapted from Gavin C. Jones, The “Flight from Marriage” in South-East and East Asia

13 Asia Population E East-West Center, Future of Population

14 Composition of Population (Japan)

15 Growth of Elderly Percent of Population Over Age 75 Source: East-West Center, Future of Population, 2002

16 East Asian Urban Areas (Mega- cities) over 10 million 1950 Tokyo, 11.3 million 1975 Tokyo, 26.3 million Osaka, 14.0 million Seoul, 12.0 million Shanghai, 11.4 million 2008 estimate Tokyo, 34.4 million Jakarta, 21.8 million Seoul, 20.0 million Manila, 19.6 million Osaka, 17.3 million Shanghai, 14.5 million Beijing, 12.8 million Guangzhou, 11.8 million Shenzhen, 11.7 million Bangkok, 10.8 million Wikipedia Sources, figures vary

17 Comparative GDP, 2008 (PPP estimates) Tokyo, $1,479 billion Tokyo, $1,479 billion South Korea, $1,342 billion South Korea, $1,342 billion Canada, $1,303 billion Canada, $1,303 billion Australia, $795 billion Australia, $795 billion Seoul, $291 billion Seoul, $291 billion Vietnam, $240 billion Vietnam, $240 billion Source: Cities, Pricewaterhousecoopers, Countries, IMF

18 Asia Pacific Disaster Map with Mega- cities Source: Pacific Disaster Center yo Manila Jakarta Shanghai Seoul Beijing Osaka Tokyo Pacific Disaster Center Kolkata

19 Resource Pressures

20 Regional Petroleum Deficits Millions of Barrels per day Congressional Research Service

21 Growth in Energy Use with Income 1980 to 2002

22 Growth of Auto Production 2007 Millions Vehicles Manufactured Source: International Organization of Automobile Manufacturers Percent Increase over 2006

23 China’s Share of... World Population: 20.1 percent World Population: 20.1 percent Coal Reserves: 12.6 percent Coal Reserves: 12.6 percent Oil Reserves: 1.3 percent Oil Reserves: 1.3 percent Natural Gas Reserves: 1.3 percent Natural Gas Reserves: 1.3 percent Source: East-West Center, The Future of Energy in Asia-Pacific, 2007

24 Annual Renewable Fresh Water Supply Source:Liquid Assets, 2005, cited in RAND, “One World, One Well”

25 Water Problem: A Chinese Perspective China Daily cartoon, 14 November 2006

26 Growth of Per Capita Meat Consumption – China, kg 54 kg Source: Jonathan Watts, The Guardian, 30 May 2008 Note: For comparison, US per capita consumption about 122 kg

27 Health Tectonics Traditional Health Risks (down) Traditional Health Risks (down) New infectious diseases, including HIV/AIDS, avian flu, new strains of tuberculosis (careful monitoring required) New infectious diseases, including HIV/AIDS, avian flu, new strains of tuberculosis (careful monitoring required) Chronic conditions and diseases associated with aging and life style changes (up) Chronic conditions and diseases associated with aging and life style changes (up)

28 Infectious Diseases: A Health Fault Line? “Spanish Flu” Pneumonia: 1919 “Spanish Flu” Pneumonia: 1919 Asian Flu: 1967 Asian Flu: 1967 Bird Flu (Hong Kong): 1997 Bird Flu (Hong Kong): 1997 SARS: 2003 SARS: 2003 Avian Flu: Avian Flu: 2004-

29 Poultry Density Source: FAO, AGA Livestock Atlas Series

30 11-Year-Old Children’s Fitness Japan Source: Japan Ministry of Education, Science and Technology, 2007

31 Prevalence of Diabetes: % increase 104% 148% increase Source: Wild, S, Roglic G., Green, A., Sicree, R, and King, H. “Global Prevalence of Diabetes: Estimates for the Year 2000 and Projects for 2030, Diabetes Care, Vol. 27, Number 5, May Average global increase 114%.

32 The Uncertainties Sustainable development Sustainable development - Economic models - Economic models - Resource impacts - Resource impacts Domestic evolution Domestic evolution - Social disparities - Social disparities - Political dynamics - Political dynamics International relations International relations Global leadership Global leadership

33 Asia Pacific Current Account Imbalances (US bn) Pacific Economic Cooperation Council, 2007

34 Gini Co-efficients Brazil Japan Mexico China USA Sources: World Bank, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

35 Income Changes China 1995 to 2005 Bottom 10 percent have seen incomes rise 42 percent Bottom 10 percent have seen incomes rise 42 percent Middle 10 percent have seen incomes rise 115 percent Middle 10 percent have seen incomes rise 115 percent Top 10 percent have seen incomes rise 168 percent Top 10 percent have seen incomes rise 168 percent Danny Leipziger and Michael Spence, Financial Times, 15 May 2007, p. 11

36 Environmental Futures

37 Global Carbon Emissions Map from The Guardian Datablog

38 CO 2 Emitters Per Capita ( tons ) CO 2 Emitters Per Capita ( tons )

39 Attitude Survey on Environment Who Hurts the Environment the Most? ChinaUS % % % % Americans Chinese 9 26 Japanese Koreans Indonesians Germans Pew Global Attitude Project, 2008

40 Governance Issues and Political Transitions

41 Political Systems in Evolution Recent coups or attempted coups: Thailand, Philippines, Timor Leste, Fiji, Bangladesh Recent coups or attempted coups: Thailand, Philippines, Timor Leste, Fiji, Bangladesh New democracy: Indonesia New democracy: Indonesia Maturing democracies: South Korea, Taiwan Maturing democracies: South Korea, Taiwan Significant change may be underway: Malaysia, Japan Significant change may be underway: Malaysia, Japan Socialist countries in transition: China, Vietnam Socialist countries in transition: China, Vietnam Autocratic regimes: North Korea, Burma, Brunei Autocratic regimes: North Korea, Burma, Brunei

42 Some Geo-Political Issues Last international war? Last international war? Ethno-nationalism (internal/international dimensions) - Pacific/Atlantic difference Ethno-nationalism (internal/international dimensions) - Pacific/Atlantic difference Power Transitions Power Transitions “Afpak” “Afpak” Future of Cross-Strait Relations Future of Cross-Strait Relations Future of the Korean Peninsula Future of the Korean Peninsula Territorial Disputes Territorial Disputes Regional Architecture Regional Architecture

43 Mutual Attitudes Two Main Points: + In general, Asians feel “warmer” toward America than Americans toward Asia + In general, positive images of the U.S. appear to have been declining

44 Overall Warmth of Americans Toward Asian Countries and Asians Toward the United States, 2008/ (cold) to 100 (hot) Asians toward US: 61 Asians toward US: 61 US toward Asian countries: 44 US toward Asian countries: 44 Source: Chicago Council of Foreign Relations, Based on Data from China, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, and India

45 US-China Mirrored Perceptions SoSo Source: Committee of 100, December 2007

46 Asian Views of US Percent favorable Percent favorable 2000* * %% % % Pakistan Indonesia Malaysia China India Japan S. Korea * 2000 trends provided by the Office of Research, U.S. Department of State. Some data from Other data from Pew Global Attitudes Project


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