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What might the Future Generations Bill mean for Carmarthenshire? Dr. Alan Netherwood March 2014 NETHERWOOD SUSTAINABLE FUTURES Sustainable Development.

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Presentation on theme: "What might the Future Generations Bill mean for Carmarthenshire? Dr. Alan Netherwood March 2014 NETHERWOOD SUSTAINABLE FUTURES Sustainable Development."— Presentation transcript:

1 What might the Future Generations Bill mean for Carmarthenshire? Dr. Alan Netherwood March 2014 NETHERWOOD SUSTAINABLE FUTURES Sustainable Development & Climate Change Consultancy alan.netherwood@gmail.com Honorary Research Fellow, Cardiff School of Planning & Geography Cardiff University

2 Professor Dennis F. Thompson Harvard Kennedy School Citizens discount future so democratic process follows suit = Presentism Presentism neglects long term risks, citizens not yet born maximises the interests of immediate descendants temporal limits on politics, policy and finance discounts, rather than accounts for needs of future generations Do unto future generations as you would have past generations do unto you (John Rawls) Do policies/actions provide greater utility or less utility? Representatives may: Express the perspectives of future citizens Act as a surrogate for future citizens Identify values likely to be neglected and priorities to adopt Protect capacity for making collective [sustainable] decisions Representing future generations meaningfully is going to be difficult

3 Generational hindsight 1966 – 2014 0.5 LIFETIME OF CHANGE? 1.Geopolitics 2.Technology 3.Health 4.Communities 5.Resources 6.Individuals WHAT HAS CHANGED IN 47 YEARS? 1.Soviet Union, China and India, N.Ireland, EU Expansion, Globalisation 2.Internet, Phones, Computers, Cloning 3.Diagnostics, Transplants, Genomics 4.Diversity, Migration, Marriage, Transience 5.North Sea Oil, Consumption, Waste, Energy 6.Gender, Information, Voting, Consumerism Generational Foresight - students I teach retire in 2063

4 Generational Foresight : A Carmarthenshire citizen Evie Netherwood (currently aged 7)

5 Generational Foresight : A Carmarthenshire citizen Born2006 Leaves School2024 Graduates2027 First Job2028 Next generation born2033 - 2040 Career2028 -2068 Puts me in retirement home 2046 Mortgage paid off2068 Retires2068 Daughter Ebony puts her in retirement home 2090 Born2033 Leaves School2051 Graduates2051 First Job2052 Next generation born2060 - 2067 Career2052 - 2092 Puts Evie in retirement home 2090 Mortgage paid off2092 Retires2092 Daughter Emma puts her in retirement home 2113 Evie Netherwood (currently aged 7) Ebony Netherwood (tba 2033)

6 What if the Bill works and we successfully look after the needs of future generations as we navigate our way through the next 50 years +…… What might the Bill have meant for Carmarthenshire? Major trends from Foresighting work with WLGA: Climate Adaptation Resource Scarcity Energy Security Food Security Water Security Ageing Population Poorer Health Austerity – less public money Employment

7 We would have adapted well to climate change predicted by 2050 and be planning for a changing future….

8 Renewables technology would have limited fuel poverty and increased sufficiency

9 Our energy supplies would be secure despite resource conflict abroad Our electricity grid would be well adapted for microgeneration

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11 Our transport infrastructure is still usable even though we had to let some roads go Rural communities receive grants to maintain vital B roads

12 Early intervention in the 2020s has meant high literacy and numeracy High levels of skills are translated into small scale businesses across Carmarthenshire Which all have good broadband!

13 Public sector still serves the community and provides many jobs……… ……and Carmarthenshires green economy is booming using its rich natural assets ……. sustainable approaches to agriculture, horticulture, energy production and tourism

14 Farmers now store water and supply a water grid for business use and irrigation

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17 Council investment portfolios have been used in public/private partnerships and to make our infrastructure last to build affordable homes

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19 Our systems of government, public funding, taxation and investment all work with the future in mind Looking after the needs of the next generation….. They are held accountable.

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21 Questions for students at Trinity St Davids in 2050 Did the Future Generations Bill shift our short termist culture from 2015 onwards? Were our public bodies post 2015 held accountable for their plans for mid- century?

22 10 BUILDING BLOCKS FOR EARLY ADOPTERS OF FUTURE GENERATIONS BILL Long term strategy (2050) Business Processes Approach to Physical Development Financial and legal systems Service co-design with Community and Partners Sustainable Decision Making Governance for Future Generations Collaboration in the authority area and across administrative boundaries Capacity building in the Council Being accountable to future generations Currently working on change management and accountability frameworks with Welsh Local Government

23 Incrementalism? …….or shift?

24 Conclusions?

25 Diolch yn fawr iawn Thankyou for listening Questions? NETHERWOOD SUSTAINABLE FUTURES Sustainable Development & Climate Change Consultancy alan.netherwood@gmail.com Honorary Research Fellow, Cardiff School of Planning & Geography Cardiff University


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