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1 Cosmic - Solar beyond the IPCC consensus Francis Massen

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1 1 Cosmic - Solar beyond the IPCC consensus Francis Massen

2 2 Remember: 1972 In 1972 the Club of Rome published its landmark report, Limits to Growth, which dramatically predicted the inevitable collapse of civilization unless economic growth was halted immediately The only solution to avoid this horrible outcome? Strict government-imposed controls on just about everything and a restriction of average industrial output per capita at about the 1975 level.

3 3 remember: 1975

4 4 Newsweek

5 5 The Little Ice Age (LIA) From (?) to 1850(?) At least 1°C colder Probably global, not only NH Not uniform (time/regional)

6 6 Maunder Minimum

7 7 Solar irradiance variation 1880

8 8 Be10 = solar activity proxy (ice core) Inverted scale

9 9 C14 = solar activity proxy (tree rings) Red + Green = Be10

10 10 Solar wind

11 11 Solar wind speed

12 12 Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) GCR = electrons protons (90%) helium (9%) other nuclei (all elements)

13 13 GCR modulation by solar activity Active sun > many sun spots > strong solar wind > blown away GCRs > less Be10 + C14

14 14 Decreasing GCR

15 15 Cosmic shower (here iron)

16 16 Ion density low middle high

17 17 GCR >>> CCN

18 18 GCR and clouds

19 19 GCR >>> clouds Low clouds ( < 3.2 km) Middle clouds ( km) High clouds ( > 6.5 km)

20 20 Cloud forcings

21 21 GRC and low cloud cover measured low cloud cover

22 22 TSI - GCR - cloud cover Inverted scale!

23 23 Sky experiment Svensmark, Danish National Spacecenter, 2005 Natural Cosmic rays > free electrons > clustering > CCN

24 24 CERN: CLOUD project (J. Kirkby, ?)

25 25 Radiative heating IPPC: CO2 emissions = W/m2 Palle: warming due to the reduction in cloud cover 1993 to 2001 = W/m2

26 26 IPCC consensus forcings LOSU = level of scientific understanding high low ( Change relative to pre-industrial 1750 situation)

27 27 IPCC concensus ignored climate forcings Cosmic rays UV increase (10 times TSI increase) Ocean emissivity (positive solar feedback) Albedo decrease (greening earth) ???? IPCC climate sensitivity Cs = dT/Σforcings = 0.75K/(Wm -2 ) probably much too high i.e. wrong!

28 28 Dirty snow June 2007 IPCC: < 7%

29 29 Decreasing AOT (atmospheric optical thickness) AOT is a measure of the atmospheres turpitude at a special wavelength. AOT = [0…1]

30 30 Prof. Akasufo (director of the Arctic International Research Center) March 2007

31 31 GCM models unreliable Observation Arctic Winter Model (hindcast)

32 32 Prof. S. Akasufo (director of the Arctic International Research Center) There is so far no definitive proof that most of the observed warming is due to the (man made) greenhouse effect (March 2007)

33 33 Prof. R. Lindzen, MIT Die heutige Unruhe hat ihre Ursachen zum grössten Teil in mangelnden Kenntnissen, was bei Wetter und Klima normal ist… Sämtliche Untersuchungen zu den Auswirkungen des Klimawandels gehen von einer langen Kette von Voraussetzungen aus, und es besteht nur eine sehr geringe Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass die Folgen dieser Kette richtig vorausgesagt werden [Cicerone, Juni 07]

34 34 Prof. Roger Pielke, Univ. of Boulder June 2007

35 35 Helmut Schmidt May 2007

36 36 Censuring GW sceptics Question parlementaire 1743

37 37 Web (1) The Global Warming Sceptic

38 38

39 39 Web (2)

40 40 Books M. Leroux 2005 Singer/Avery 2006 P. Michaels 2005 Svensmark/Calder 2007 P. Michaels 2000 Pielke&Cotton, 2007

41 41 Global temperature anomaly (versus mean of ) and CO2 for : no more warming! NCDC (National Climatic Data Center)

42 42 The new indulgence (Der neue Ablass)

43 43 Merci de votre attention…


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