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Meteorology 415 Fall 2011 Review of Forecast 6 Contest 2 Big Piney and Laramie, WY.

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Presentation on theme: "Meteorology 415 Fall 2011 Review of Forecast 6 Contest 2 Big Piney and Laramie, WY."— Presentation transcript:

1 Meteorology 415 Fall 2011 Review of Forecast 6 Contest 2 Big Piney and Laramie, WY

2 Big Piney, WY

3 FAA Identifier: BPI Lat/Long: 42- 35-06.2510N / 110-06-40.1510W 42-35.104183N / 110-06.669183W 42.5850697 / -110.1111531 (estimated) Elevation: 6990 ft. / 2130.6 m (surveyed) Variation: 16E (1975) From city: 3 miles N of BIG PINEY, WY

4 Observations from Big Piney KBPI 061753Z AUTO 34016G21KT 10SM OVC021 02/01 A2950 RMK AO2 WSHFT 1658 RAE31 SLP953 P0001 60004 T00170006 10061 20017 53006 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 061853Z AUTO 36007KT 10SM OVC020 03/01 A2954 RMK AO2 SLP964 T00330011 TSNO= KBPI 061944Z AUTO 01019G25KT 10SM SCT023 06/01 A2951 RMK AO2 TSNO= KBPI 061953Z AUTO 01013G24KT 10SM FEW023 06/01 A2953 RMK AO2 SLP955 T00560011 TSNO= KBPI 062008Z AUTO 36012KT 10SM BKN027 05/01 A2956 RMK AO2 TSNO= KBPI 062037Z AUTO 02012G18KT 10SM OVC031 04/00 A2957 RMK AO2 TSNO= KBPI 062053Z AUTO 01013KT 10SM BKN031 BKN045 OVC065 03/00 A2958 RMK AO2 SLP979 T00330000 53020 TSNO= KBPI 062135Z AUTO 34015KT 5SM -SN BKN022 OVC048 03/M01 A2961 RMK AO2 SNB25 P0000 TSNO= KBPI 062142Z AUTO 34016G19KT 1 1/2SM -SN OVC018 03/M01 A2961 RMK AO2 VIS 3/4V4 SNB25 P0000 TSNO= KBPI 062147Z AUTO 36017G21KT 3/4SM -SN VV014 02/M01 A2961 RMK AO2 SNB25 P0000 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 062153Z AUTO 33015KT 1/2SM SN VV012 02/M01 A2961 RMK AO2 SNB25 SLP995 P0000 T00171011 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 062209Z AUTO 35016KT 1/2SM SN FG VV009 01/M01 A2963 RMK AO2 P0000 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 062219Z AUTO 33013KT 1/2SM SN FG VV012 01/M01 A2963 RMK AO2 P0000 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 062238Z AUTO 32014G21KT 1 1/4SM -SN BR FEW009 OVC014 01/M01 A2962 RMK AO2 P0000 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 062238Z AUTO 32014G21KT 1 1/4SM -SN BR FEW009 OVC014 01/M01A2962= KBPI 062245Z AUTO 31017G22KT 1 3/4SM -SN BR FEW009 OVC016 01/M01 A2962 RMK AO2 P0000 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 062245Z AUTO 31017G22KT 1 3/4SM -SN BR FEW009 OVC016 01/M01A2962= KBPI 062253Z AUTO 31015G22KT 3SM -SN BR FEW012 BKN018 OVC035 01/M01 A2962 RMK AO2 SLP001 P0000 T00061011 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 062308Z AUTO 31010G22KT 9SM SCT020 OVC037 01/M02 A2964 RMK AO2 SNE06 P0000 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 062353Z AUTO 32012KT 10SM OVC039 02/M03 A2965 RMK AO2 SNE06 SLP010 P0000 60000 T00171028 10067 20006 53012 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070053Z AUTO 32015G23KT 10SM OVC049 01/M03 A2967 RMK AO2 SLP015 T00111033 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070153Z AUTO 33013KT 10SM OVC049 01/M04 A2968 RMK AO2 SLP019 T00111039 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070253Z AUTO 31004KT 10SM OVC046 02/M04 A2969 RMK AO2 SLP021 T00171044 53012 FZRANO TSNO=

5 Observations from Big Piney KBPI 070253Z AUTO 31004KT 10SM OVC046 02/M04 A2969 RMK AO2 SLP021 T00171044 53012 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070253Z AUTO 31004KT 10SM OVC046 02/M04 A2969 RMK AO2 SLP021 T00171044 53012 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070353Z AUTO 33007KT 10SM OVC028 01/M04 A2972 RMK AO2 SLP032 T00111044 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070353Z AUTO 33007KT 10SM OVC028 01/M04 A2972 RMK AO2 SLP032 T00111044 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070406Z AUTO 33007KT 1 3/4SM -SN OVC018 01/M04 A2972 RMK AO2 VIS 1 1/2V2 1/2 SNB0356 P0000 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070406Z AUTO 33007KT 1 3/4SM -SN OVC018 01/M04 A2972 RMK AO2 VIS 1 1/2V2 1/2 SNB0356 P0000 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070453Z AUTO 00000KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR OVC016 M01/M02 A2972 RMK AO2 SNB0356 SLP042 P0000 T10061022 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070453Z AUTO 00000KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR OVC016 M01/M02 A2972 RMK AO2 SNB0356 SLP042 P0000 T10061022 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070510Z AUTO 21004KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR OVC018 M01/M02 A2973 RMK AO2 P0000 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070510Z AUTO 21004KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR OVC018 M01/M02 A2973 RMK AO2 P0000 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070526Z AUTO 08003KT 1 3/4SM -SN BR FEW005 OVC018 M01/M02 A2973 RMK AO2 P0000 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070526Z AUTO 08003KT 1 3/4SM -SN BR FEW005 OVC018 M01/M02 A2973 RMK AO2 P0000 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070526Z AUTO 08003KT 1 3/4SM -SN BR FEW005 OVC018 M01/M02A2973= KBPI 070526Z AUTO 08003KT 1 3/4SM -SN BR FEW005 OVC018 M01/M02A2973= KBPI 070542Z AUTO 15005KT 3/4SM -SN BR VV013 M01/M02 A2973 RMK AO2 P0000 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070542Z AUTO 15005KT 3/4SM -SN BR VV013 M01/M02 A2973 RMK AO2 P0000 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070553Z AUTO 15005KT 3/4SM -SN BR VV010 M01/M02 A2973 RMK AO2 SLP056 P0000 60000 T10111017 10017 21011 53005 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070553Z AUTO 15005KT 3/4SM -SN BR VV010 M01/M02 A2973 RMK AO2 SLP056 P0000 60000 T10111017 10017 21011 53005 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070609Z AUTO 16005KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV009 M01/M02 A2974 RMK AO2 P0001 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070609Z AUTO 16005KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV009 M01/M02 A2974 RMK AO2 P0001 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070653Z AUTO 19005KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV007 M01/M02 A2973 RMK AO2 SLP052 P0005 T10111017 400671011 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070653Z AUTO 19005KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV007 M01/M02 A2973 RMK AO2 SLP052 P0005 T10111017 400671011 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070738Z AUTO 20005KT 1 1/4SM -SN BR FEW002 OVC011 M02/M02 A2975 RMK AO2 P0005 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070738Z AUTO 20005KT 1 1/4SM -SN BR FEW002 OVC011 M02/M02 A2975 RMK AO2 P0005 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070738Z AUTO 20005KT 1 1/4SM -SN BR FEW002 OVC011 M02/M02A2975= KBPI 070738Z AUTO 20005KT 1 1/4SM -SN BR FEW002 OVC011 M02/M02A2975= KBPI 070746Z AUTO 20005KT 2SM -SN BR OVC015 M01/M02 A2976 RMK AO2 P0005 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070746Z AUTO 20005KT 2SM -SN BR OVC015 M01/M02 A2976 RMK AO2 P0005 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070753Z AUTO 19005KT 2SM -SN BR OVC017 M01/M02 A2976 RMK AO2 SLP054 P0005 T10111022 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070753Z AUTO 19005KT 2SM -SN BR OVC017 M01/M02 A2976 RMK AO2 SLP054 P0005 T10111022 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070807Z AUTO 17005KT 1 3/4SM -SN BR OVC019 M01/M02 A2976 RMK AO2 P0000 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070807Z AUTO 17005KT 1 3/4SM -SN BR OVC019 M01/M02 A2976 RMK AO2 P0000 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070818Z AUTO 16004KT 2SM -SN BR OVC021 M01/M02 A2977 RMK AO2 P0000 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070818Z AUTO 16004KT 2SM -SN BR OVC021 M01/M02 A2977 RMK AO2 P0000 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070853Z AUTO 17003KT 1 3/4SM -SN BR OVC021 M01/M02 A2978 RMK AO2 SLP070 P0000 60010 T10111022 51014 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070853Z AUTO 17003KT 1 3/4SM -SN BR OVC021 M01/M02 A2978 RMK AO2 SLP070 P0000 60010 T10111022 51014 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070953Z AUTO 20004KT 1 3/4SM -SN BR OVC017 M01/M02 A2980 RMK AO2 SLP081 P0000 T10111017 FZRANO TSNO=KBPI 071039Z AUTO 16005KT 2SM -SN BR OVC038 M02/M02 A2981 RMK AO2 P0000 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 070953Z AUTO 20004KT 1 3/4SM -SN BR OVC017 M01/M02 A2980 RMK AO2 SLP081 P0000 T10111017 FZRANO TSNO=KBPI 071039Z AUTO 16005KT 2SM -SN BR OVC038 M02/M02 A2981 RMK AO2 P0000 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 071049Z AUTO 16004KT 5SM -SN BR OVC050 M02/M02 A2981 RMK AO2 P0000 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 071049Z AUTO 16004KT 5SM -SN BR OVC050 M02/M02 A2981 RMK AO2 P0000 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 071053Z AUTO 15005KT 5SM -SN BR OVC055 M02/M02 A2981 RMK AO2 SLP091 P0000 T10171022 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 071053Z AUTO 15005KT 5SM -SN BR OVC055 M02/M02 A2981 RMK AO2 SLP091 P0000 T10171022 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 071106Z AUTO 16004KT 6SM -SN BR FEW001 OVC060 M02/M02 A2982 RMK AO2 P0000 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 071106Z AUTO 16004KT 6SM -SN BR FEW001 OVC060 M02/M02 A2982 RMK AO2 P0000 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 071153Z AUTO 07003KT 8SM -SN FEW050 OVC060 M01/M02 A2982 RMK AO2 SLP088 P0000 60010 70014 T10111022 11011 21017 53005 FZRANO TSNO= KBPI 071153Z AUTO 07003KT 8SM -SN FEW050 OVC060 M01/M02 A2982 RMK AO2 SLP088 P0000 60010 70014 T10111022 11011 21017 53005 FZRANO TSNO=

6 Synoptic Pattern

7 Radar

8 Surface Analysis

9 Up the Road – at Jackson Hole

10 Verification

11 Standings

12 Up close and Personal

13 Lessons Learned – Big Piney Terrain has an enormous effect on the weather in the West and the surface wind flow is both altered by the terrain and can affect local conditions (sky cover and precip). Terrain has an enormous effect on the weather in the West and the surface wind flow is both altered by the terrain and can affect local conditions (sky cover and precip). In spite of terrain, a large-intense disturbance will still create a cold conveyor and this will overwhelm/enhance terrain effects. In spite of terrain, a large-intense disturbance will still create a cold conveyor and this will overwhelm/enhance terrain effects.

14 Laramie, WY

15 FAA Identifier: LAR Lat/Long: 41- 18-43.4000N / 105-40-30.0000W 41-18.723333N / 105-40.500000W 41.3120556 / -105.6750000 (estimated) Elevation: 7284 ft. / 2220.2 m (surveyed) Variation: 13E (1980) From city: 3 miles W of LARAMIE, WY

16 Observations from Laramie KLAR 061753Z AUTO 03004KT 10SM CLR 14/01 A2952 RMK AO2 SLP915 60000 T01390006 10161 20056 58026 TSNO= KLAR 061853Z AUTO 10011KT 10SM -RA BKN050 OVC060 12/04 A2951 RMK AO2 RAB47 SLP922 P0000 T01170039 TSNO= KLAR 061939Z AUTO 02009KT 10SM -RA BKN060 OVC070 08/04 A2951 RMK AO2 WSHFT 1919 P0005 TSNO= KLAR 061953Z AUTO 02011KT 10SM BKN060 BKN080 BKN090 09/04 A2949 RMK AO2 WSHFT 1919 RAE46 SLP918 P0005 T00940044 TSNO= KLAR 062040Z AUTO 23029G40KT 4SM +RA SQ SCT040 BKN065 OVC080 06/03 A2958 RMK AO2 PK WND 22040/2035 RAB00E12B37 PRESRR P0005 TSNO= KLAR 062040Z AUTO 23029G40KT 4SM +RA SQ SCT040 BKN065 OVC080 06/03A2958= KLAR 062053Z AUTO 26025G37KT 3SM RA BR BKN038 OVC060 04/02 A2957 RMK AO2 PK WND 22040/2035 WSHFT 2033 RAB00E12B37 SLP970 P0007 60012 T00390022 53013 TSNO= TSNO= KLAR 062101Z AUTO 26019G31KT 3SM RA BR FEW029 OVC034 04/03 A2959 RMK AO2 PK WND 26027/2054 WSHFT 2041 P0002 TSNO= KLAR 062053Z AUTO 26025G37KT 3SM RA BR BKN038 OVC060 04/02 A2957= KLAR 062101Z AUTO 26019G31KT 3SM RA BR FEW029 OVC034 04/03 A2959= KLAR 062153Z AUTO 20009KT 10SM FEW031 SCT060 OVC090 05/02 A2964 RMK AO2 PK WND 25027/2119 WSHFT 2041 RAE31 PRESRR SLP994 P0005 T00500022 TSNO= KLAR 062253Z AUTO 16006KT 10SM CLR 07/02 A2960 RMK AO2 SLP971 T00670017 TSNO= KLAR 062325Z AUTO 22024G33KT 10SM CLR 08/M04 A2958 RMK AO2 PK WND 22033/2325 WSHFT 2305 TSNO= KLAR 062353Z AUTO 22030G43KT 10SM CLR 06/M06 A2961 RMK AO2 PK WND 22045/2338 WSHFT 2305 SLP970 60017 T00611061 10144 20039 51011 TSNO= KLAR 070053Z AUTO 22020G29KT 10SM CLR 04/M05 A2966 RMK AO2 PK WND 22038/0009 SLP997 T00391050 TSNO= KLAR 070153Z AUTO 22018KT 10SM CLR 01/M03 A2967 RMK AO2 PK WND 24028/0116 SLP010 T00111033 TSNO= KLAR 070253Z AUTO 22017G24KT 10SM CLR 01/M04 A2969 RMK AO2 SLP012 T00111039 51021 TSNO=

17 Observations from Laramie KLAR 070253Z AUTO 22017G24KT 10SM CLR 01/M04 A2969 RMK AO2 SLP012 T00111039 51021 TSNO= KLAR 070253Z AUTO 22017G24KT 10SM CLR 01/M04 A2969 RMK AO2 SLP012 T00111039 51021 TSNO= KLAR 070353Z AUTO 22018G25KT 10SM CLR 01/M04 A2972 RMK AO2 PK WND 22030/0328 SLP008 T00061039 TSNO= KLAR 070353Z AUTO 22018G25KT 10SM CLR 01/M04 A2972 RMK AO2 PK WND 22030/0328 SLP008 T00061039 TSNO= KLAR 070453Z AUTO 21019G26KT 10SM CLR 00/M05 A2972 RMK AO2 PK WND 21027/0443 SLP007 T00001050 TSNO= KLAR 070453Z AUTO 21019G26KT 10SM CLR 00/M05 A2972 RMK AO2 PK WND 21027/0443 SLP007 T00001050 TSNO= KLAR 070553Z AUTO 23018G27KT 7SM -SN BKN030 BKN040 BKN049 M01/M03 A2974 RMK AO2 PK WND 23031/0540 SNB41 SLP015 P0000 60000 T10061033 10061 21006 KLAR 070553Z AUTO 23018G27KT 7SM -SN BKN030 BKN040 BKN049 M01/M03 A2974 RMK AO2 PK WND 23031/0540 SNB41 SLP015 P0000 60000 T10061033 10061 21006 51013 TSNO= 51013 TSNO= KLAR 070653Z AUTO 23018G27KT 10SM CLR 00/M06 A2974 RMK AO2 PK WND 23030/0643 SNE01 SLP022 P0000 T00001061 401611011 TSNO= KLAR 070653Z AUTO 23018G27KT 10SM CLR 00/M06 A2974 RMK AO2 PK WND 23030/0643 SNE01 SLP022 P0000 T00001061 401611011 TSNO= KLAR 070753Z AUTO 23019G24KT 10SM CLR M01/M07 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 23026/0656 SLP034 T10061067 TSNO= KLAR 070753Z AUTO 23019G24KT 10SM CLR M01/M07 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 23026/0656 SLP034 T10061067 TSNO= KLAR 070853Z AUTO 23022G30KT 10SM FEW055 00/M08 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 23030/0852 SLP049 60000 T00001083 50003 TSNO= KLAR 070853Z AUTO 23022G30KT 10SM FEW055 00/M08 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 23030/0852 SLP049 60000 T00001083 50003 TSNO= KLAR 070953Z AUTO 23021G28KT 10SM SCT055 00/M08 A2974 RMK AO2 PK WND 24031/0915 SLP041 T00001078 TSNO= KLAR 070953Z AUTO 23021G28KT 10SM SCT055 00/M08 A2974 RMK AO2 PK WND 24031/0915 SLP041 T00001078 TSNO= KLAR 071053Z AUTO 23015G25KT 10SM FEW055 00/M08 A2975 RMK AO2 SLP041 T00001078 TSNO= KLAR 071053Z AUTO 23015G25KT 10SM FEW055 00/M08 A2975 RMK AO2 SLP041 T00001078 TSNO= KLAR 071153Z AUTO 23023G30KT 10SM CLR 01/M08 A2976 RMK AO2 PK WND 23033/1142 SLP044 60000 70017 T00061083 10006 21011 53002 TSNO= KLAR 071153Z AUTO 23023G30KT 10SM CLR 01/M08 A2976 RMK AO2 PK WND 23033/1142 SLP044 60000 70017 T00061083 10006 21011 53002 TSNO=

18 Synoptic Pattern

19 Radar

20 Surface Analysis

21 Verification

22 Standings

23 Up close and Personal

24 Lessons Learned – Laramie Similar to east of the Appalachians (though much cooler and drier)….a cold front sweeping through can be accompanied by a squall line and then be followed by a brief wrap-around (snow) shower later on. Similar to east of the Appalachians (though much cooler and drier)….a cold front sweeping through can be accompanied by a squall line and then be followed by a brief wrap-around (snow) shower later on. The high elevation (>7000ft) allows cold air to mix down from aloft so it can get colder than guidance. The high elevation (>7000ft) allows cold air to mix down from aloft so it can get colder than guidance.

25 Weekly Winners


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