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Trends in job quality during the Great Recession: a comparative multi-dimensional approach for the EU Christine Erhel CEE, Université Paris 1 Based on.

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Presentation on theme: "Trends in job quality during the Great Recession: a comparative multi-dimensional approach for the EU Christine Erhel CEE, Université Paris 1 Based on."— Presentation transcript:

1 Trends in job quality during the Great Recession: a comparative multi-dimensional approach for the EU Christine Erhel CEE, Université Paris 1 Based on a paper co-authored by M. Guergoat-Larivière (CNAM), Janine Leschke (Department of Business and Politics, Copenhagen Business School), and A. Watt (IMK) Flexwork, Amsterdam, 25th of october 2013

2 Structure of the presentation 1.Job quality as a multi-dimensional concept 2.What dynamics during the Great Recession? Aggregate and individual descriptive results 3.Job quality trends and labour market institutions

3 1-Job quality: a multi-dimensional concept Institutional definitions of job quality -ILO approach: Decent Work indicators (1999) -EU approach: Laeken indicators (2001)+ Employment Committee discussions since Since 2007 an integration of the two approaches (Task Force then Expert Group UNECE/ILO/EUROSTAT): a common set of indicators is at the disposal of national statistical offices -Other institutions have also proposed such multi-dimensional definitions (Eurofound) Main dimensions of job quality according to these international approaches -Employment conditions (wages, labour contrat…) -Working conditions (physical environment, hours, work intensity…) -Training opportunities -Gender equality and work-family reconciliation Empirical studies based on such a multi-dimensional framework have been numerous in the 2000s ETUI job quality index Employment in Europe report (2008) based on Davoine et al (2008) Eurofound (2012) But also some analyses focusing on one dimension For instance on wages and employment structure (using LFS, Eurofound 2008 and 2011), working conditions (using EWCS, Greenan et al, 2012; Amossé, Kalugina, 2013; Green, Mostafa, 2012)

4 1-Job quality: a multi-dimensional concept Over the 1990s and 2000s, an increasing trend in job quality as measured by synthetic indexes… -Dimensions contributing the most to this trend=training opportunities/ gender equality/in work accidents -Some (but limited) convergence in the EU -And persisting differences across sectors, by social groups (education level…) -…as well as some contradictory trends (work intensification, precarity, polarized job creations on the wage scale…) What dynamics during the Great Recession? 3 conflicting hypotheses -Bargaining power hypothesis: high unemployment leads to weaker bargaining power of workers and thus to declining job quality -Composition-effect hypothesis: economic crisis leads to shake-out of low- productivity 'bad' jobs with statistical effect of higher average job quality -Perception effect hypothesis: « perceived » and declared job quality might be increased in a crisis context

5 1-Job quality: a multi-dimensional concept Our analysis for the crisis period combines 2 levels -Aggregate level using LFS, EWCS, EU-SILC, and the JQI methodology: job quality trends at the country level between 2005 and Individual level using EU-SILC panel : job quality trends for individuals in the panel between 2007 and The two levels are complementary in terms of observation period (constrained for EWCS survey, more flexible for EU-SILC panel) and dimensions considered (much more limited in SILC panel)

6 2-What dynamics during the Great Recession? Methodology and data Step 1-Aggregate analysis based on JQI JQI allows comparisons between EU 27 countries, over time ((2000), 2005 and 2010) and between men and women Assesment of overall job quality and job quality in different sub-fields (using LFS, EWCS, EU-SILC, ICTWSS, AMECO): wages Involuntary non-standard employment (inverted) working time and work-life balance working conditions and job security skills and career development collective interest representation Descriptive analysis on country and gender trends in aggregate job quality Step 2-Individual analysis based on EU-SILC panel Compared to JQI multi-dimensional framework, only a few dimensions/variables are available: Wages (for 17 countries) Non standard employment: temporary labour contract; part time (self-declared) Working time: weekly working time Skills and career development: occupational mobility (ISCO) Descriptive analysis and multi-nomial multilevel logit models for individuals in employment in 2007

7 Developments in overall JQI by country between 2005 et 2010 Source: Erhel, Guergoat-Larivière, Leschke, Watt (2012)

8 Most pronounced negative and positive changes by sub-index – Wages Involuntary non- standard (inverted) Working time and work-life balance Working conditions and job security Skills and career develop ment Collective interest representa tion JQI total ImprovementIEPL, BE, LT RO, PL, LV, SK, HU, BG CZ, PT, PL, DE, FI LU, PL, CY, EE, BE PL, CZ, BE, DK DeteriorationRO, DEIE, IT, UKFR IE, LU, FR, SE FR, SESK, PT, EE IE, FR, UK, SE Source: Erhel, Guergoat-Larivière, Leschke, Watt (2012)

9 Developments in JQI dimensions between 2005 et 2010 (EU average) Source: Erhel, Guergoat-Larivière, Leschke, Watt (2012)

10 10 Relationship between unemployment rate changes and changes in not worried about losing job, Source: Erhel, Guergoat-Larivière, Leschke, Watt (2012)

11 11 Change in the unemployment rate between 2005 and 2010 and change in the overall JQI, Source: Erhel, Guergoat-Larivière, Leschke, Watt (2012)

12 Aggregate and individual level trends: temporary jobs between 2007 and 2009 (EU-SILC) Share of temporary employment Transitions from temporary employment

13 2-What dynamics during the Great Recession? Aggregate and individual descriptive results -JQI and some dynamics based on individual data show… For the EU average: improvement in working conditions (intensity, autonomy), hours worked, and work-life balance. Degradation for wages, involuntary non-standard employment, job security perception. Stability for training. Heterogeneity across countries and hardly any convergence. For France, all dimensions follow negative trends: increase in involuntary temporary jobs, in jobs insecurity feeling, long hours, decrease in training opportunities… +Heterogeneity by individual characteristics: youth, low qualified and older workers experience the most negative trajectories between 2007 et 2009 To enhance the analysis of the links between individual and country characteristics, we use multi-level modelling

14 3-Job quality trends, individual characteristics and labour market institutions: a multi-level analysis In our sample we consider individuals who are employed in For those employed in 2009 we construct a variable indicating a decrease in job quality: either a transition from permanent towards temporary job, or from full time to part time, or a descending occupational mobility (from high- skilled to low-skilled jobs). Using multi-nomial multilevel logits, we modelize probabilities to experience the following situations in 2009: non employment; in employment with a lower quality job; in employment with no degradation in job quality. This last situation is taken as a reference. Explanatory variables are the following: - Individual level: age, gender, education level, children under 16, having a child between 2007 and 2009, experience of unemployment in 2008; -Country level: employment composition by sector, GDP and unemployment variations, employment protection legislation, labour market policy

15 Results of the best fit model Not employed vs JQ staying the same or improving JQ deteriorating vs JQ staying the same or improving Intercept < <0.001 Contextual variables EPL EXP_UNEMPL UNEMPL_DIFF Individual variables Child <0.001 Child < Unemploy < <0.001 Age < <0.001 Age < <0.001 ISCED < <0.001 ISCED < <0.001 Woman < TERTIARY (cross- level) Source: EU-SILC individual data (longitudinal database from 2007 to 2009) and aggregated data from Eurostat and OECD individuals aged 15 to 64; 20 countries.

16 3-Job quality trends, individual characteristics, and labour market institutions: a multi-level analysis Individual determinants of job quality evolution -probability of NE and decrease in JQ is higher for: youth, older workers, low- educated, people having experienced unemployment between 2007 and both probabilities are lower for individuals having children (under 16). The effect of child birth is not significant for JQ (but positive on the probability to be NE). -being a woman increases probability of NE and decreases probability of decrease in JQ. Country level factors influencing job quality evolution EPL: no effect on JQ (decreases probability of NE) LMP expenditure: small positive effect on JQ trends Unemployment variation: increases both probabilities of NE and JQ decrease Sectors: no effect except for tertiary employment share that decreases the probability to experience JQ deterioration for women

17 Conclusions Both JQI and individual analysis confirm the heterogeneity of job quality trends in times of crisis: -Across sub-populations -Across countries Some evidence for composition-effect hypothesis: reduction in very high weekly working hours, lower work intensity, higher work autonomy Some explanatory factors for inter-country differences: -Size of the macroeconomic and labour market shock: confirms the bargaining power hypothesis -Share of employment in the different sector: matters for women (tertiary sector) -Institutions and policies: small effect of LMP

18 References Amossé T., Kalugina E. (2012), More and Better Jobs in Europe. Really? A Micro-statistical Analysis of Links between Work Quality and Job Dynamics in Ten European Countries (1995–2005), Centre détudes de lemploi, document de travail n° 162. Amossé T., Kalugina E. (2013), « Qualité du travail et dynamique de lemploi en Europe pendant la crise ( ) », à paraître dans un ouvrage collectif CEE (coord. C. Spieser). Davoine L., Erhel C. (2007), « La qualité de lemploi en Europe : une approche comparative et dynamique », Economie et Statistique, n° 410, p Davoine L., Erhel C., Guergoat-Larivière M., 2008, Monitoring Employment Quality in Europe: European Employment Strategy Indicators and Beyond, International Labour review, september, No. 147 (2-3), pp EMCO [Employment Committee] (2011): Indicators on quality in work: taking stock of existing material and indicators, INDIC/08/110311/EN Erhel C., Gautié J., Gazier B., (2013), Job quality as an objective of the European Employment Strategy, in Barbier J-C., Collomb F., Rogowski R. (dir, 2012), The sustainability of the European Social Model, Edward Elgar. Erhel C., Guergoat-Lariviere M., Leschke J., Watt A. (2012), Trends in job quality during the Great Recession: a comparative approach for the EU, Document de travail du CEE, novembre Eurofound (2008), More and better jobs? Patterns of employment expansion in Europe – ERM report 2008, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg (authors Fernández-Macías, E. and Hurley, J.). Eurofound (2011), Shifts in the job structure in Europe during the Great Recession Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg (authors Hurley J., Storrie D., with Jean-Marie Jungblut) Eurofound (2012), Trends in Job Quality in Europe, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg (authors F. Green and T. Mostafa) Greenan N., Kalugina E., Walkowiak E. (2010), Trends in Quality of Work in the EU-15:Evidence from the European Working Conditions Survey ( ), Centre détudes de lemploi, document de travail n° 133. ILO, 1999 Report of the Director General Decent work, International Labour Office, Geneva. Leschke J., Watt A., Finn M., 2012, Job Quality in the Crisis –An Update of the Job Quality Index (JQI), ETUI Working Paper , European Trade Union Institute, Brussels. Leschke, J. / A. Watt (2013) Challenges in Constructing a Multi-dimensional European Job Quality Index, in: Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal of Quality-of-Life Measurement:

19 Over the 1990s and 2000s, an increasing trend in job quality… Job Quality Index (Davoine et al, 2008)


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