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Revue de la littérature récente 26 novembre 2009 Fécondité et famille Demographic research Demography European journal of population Journal of population.

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Presentation on theme: "Revue de la littérature récente 26 novembre 2009 Fécondité et famille Demographic research Demography European journal of population Journal of population."— Presentation transcript:


2 Revue de la littérature récente 26 novembre 2009 Fécondité et famille Demographic research Demography European journal of population Journal of population economics Journal of population research

3 Thèmes dominants 1.Les déterminants de la fécondité 2.En Europe, la sous-fécondité de lItalie 3.La mutation des modes de cohabitations et ses conséquences méthodologiques

4 Demographic Research

5 Quoi Men's childbearing desires and views of the male role in Europe at the dawn of the 21st century Qui Allan Puur; Livia Sz. Oláh; Myriam Irene Tazi-Preve; Jürgen Dorbritz Où Demographic research Quand 18 novembre 2008 Quoi encore There is theoretical support for the assumption that the persistence of low fertility levels across Europe is likely to be linked to the incomplete gender revolution, more specifically to the lack of, or only limited changes in the male gender role as opposed to womens role. Examining within-country differences, we find that men with egalitarian attitudes seem to have higher fertility aspirations than their traditional counterparts in contemporary Europe. Données Our analyses include men aged 20-44 years in eight countries: Austria, Estonia, East Germany, West Germany, Italy, Lithuania, the Netherlands and Poland. The data are extracted from the Population Policy Acceptance Study of the early 2000s.


7 Quoi The impact of female employment on fertility in Dakar (Senegal) and Lomé (Togo) Qui Donatien Beguy Où Demographic research Quand 13 février 2009 Quoi encore This paper investigates the impact of female employment on fertility in two urban contexts in sub-Saharan Africa: Dakar (Senegal) and Lomé (Togo). The hypothesis that wage employment and maternal obligations are incompatible seems to be corroborated in Lomé, where women are likely to consider work as a legitimate alternative to their role as a mother or spouse. Being involved in economic activity is a real option and can therefore impact upon their reproductive life. By contrast, in Dakar working does not seem to hinder family formation. Greater involvement of women in the labour force is not the main reason for fertility decline in Dakar. Données In Dakar the survey, carried out by researchers at the French Institute of research for Development (IRD – Equipe Jeremi) and the University of Dakar (Institut Fondamental dAfrique Noire – IFAN), was part of a study called Crisis, Transition to Adulthood and Family Changing within the Middle and Poor Classes in Dakar and was funded by CODESRIA (Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa). In Lomé the data came from a retrospective survey – Survey on Migrations and Urban Integration in Lomé – directed by researchers at the Demographic Research Unit of the University of Lomé. This was part of the Survey on Family Structures, Migrations and Urbanization in Togo, which is funded by the African Development Bank.


9 Quoi Is Latin America starting to retreat from early and universal childbearing? Qui Luis Rosero-Bixby; Teresa Castro-Martin; Teresa Martín-García Où Demographic research Quand 20 février 2009 Quoi encore The 2000 censuses show that the proportion of women below age 30 who are mothers has dropped substantially in most Latin America countries, suggesting that the social imperative of early motherhood, which has long prevailed in the region, is weakening. Surveys conducted in 14 Latin American countries in 2006 also show a strong link between childlessness and higher education across several cohorts. Données The census data were taken from several sources, including the UN Demographic Yearbook, as well as online census data on the web from the IPUMS project (Minnesota Population Center 2008), the University of Costa Rica (CCP 2008), and the census offices in Colombia, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Nicaragua, and Honduras.


11 Quoi Does fertility decrease household consumption? An analysis of poverty dynamics and fertility in Indonesia Qui Jungho Kim;Henriette Engelhardt;Alexia Prskawetz;Arnstein Aassve Où Demographic research Quand 5 juin 2009 Quoi encore The analysis suggests that a newborn child decreases household consumption per person by 20 percent within four years. When the estimates of equivalence scales implied by the Indonesian sample are applied, the effect of a child on household consumption is still negative, but the magnitudes are in the range from 20 to 65 percent of that found with the per-capita expenditure as a measure of consumption. Therefore, it is suggested that the analysis based on the conventional measure of poverty is likely to exaggerate the effect of fertility on poverty at least because of the neglect of the proper equivalence scale. Données 1)Source of TFR: World Population Prospects: The 2000 Revision, Vol. I, United Nations Population Division 2)Source of GDP per capita: World Development Indicators 2004, The World Bank. 3) Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS)

12 Quoi The one-child family France in the European context Qui Didier Breton; France Prioux Où Demographic research Quand 9 juin 2009 Quoi encore This paper observes the change since the 1970s in the proportion of men and women having only one child during their reproductive life, and examines their sociodemographic characteristics. The aim is to explore the significant variables of the complement of the parity progression ratio from first to second birth (1- A1). First, we present the theories, findings and results relating to the single- child family model in Europe. Then, we perform a multivariate analysis with the dependent variable of the model being the fact of not having had a second child ten years after the birth of a first child in stable unions. Données Un mélange des données de létats civils et de recensements.


14 Quoi Does early childbearing and a sterilization-focused family planning programme in India fuel population growth? Qui Zoë Matthews;Sabu S. Padmadas;Inge Hutter;Juliet McEachran;James J. Brown Où Demographic research Quand 16 juin 2009 Quoi encore The analyses presented in this paper have illustrated that, in India, a younger age pattern of fertility and the rise in sterilisation combined with shorter rather than longer birth intervals will encourage faster population growth. If the United Nations medium variant forecasts of Indian fertility are to be relied upon, by 2050, the additional number of persons in Indias total population due to an early childbearing pattern will be as much as 52 million. Données The main datasets used in this study include those from the Sample Registration System (SRS), the National Family Health Surveys (NFHS), the Census of India and the United Nations World Population Prospects Database.


16 Quoi Neither single, nor in a couple. A study of living apart together in France Qui Arnaud Regnier-Loilier; Éva Beaujouan; Catherine Villeneuve-Gokalp Où Demographic research Quand 31 juillet 2009 Quoi encore The present study provides an overall view into noncohabiting relationships in France, shedding light on the characteristics of both the individuals concerned and their relationships. There has been no recent increase in the prevalence of this living arrangement. It competes with cohabiting relationships both among students and among people with cohabiting children. Four main groups of living apart relationships are described: Young adults, Out of a family, Single parents, and Seniors. The reasons for living apart as well as future intentions vary considerably across these groups. Données The "Generations and Gender Survey," known in French as Étude des relations familiales et intergénérationnelles (GGS-ERFI). In order to look at the development of LAT unions, the Family Situation and Employment Survey (ESFE, 1994, INSEE-INED) was reanalysed.


18 Quoi "Living Apart Together" relationships in the United States Qui Charles Strohm; Judith Seltzer; Susan Cochran; Vickie Mays Où Demographic research Quand 13 août 2009 Quoi encore About one third of U.S. adults not married or cohabiting are in LAT relationships – these individuals would be classified as single in conventional studies that focus on residential unions. Gay men are somewhat more likely than heterosexual men to be in LAT relationships. For heterosexuals and lesbians, LAT relationships are more common among younger people. Heterosexuals in LAT unions are less likely to expect to marry their partners, but more likely to say that couples should be emotionally dependent than are cohabiters. Regardless of sexual orientation, people in LAT relationships perceive similar amounts of emotional support from partners, but less instrumental support than cohabiters perceive. Données We use data from two complementary population-based data sources, one a national sample and the other a state sample. The national data source is the U.S. General Social Survey (GSS) from 1996 and 1998. We supplement the GSS data with data from the 2004-05 California Quality of Life Survey I (Cal-QOL, Cochran and Mays 2007).


20 Quoi Is Poland really 'immune' to the spread of cohabitation? Qui Anna Matysiak Où Demographic research Quand 18 août 2009 Quoi encore Various data have constantly pointed out a low incidence of non-marital unions in Poland (at 1.4-4.9% among all unions). In this paper we demonstrate that these data, coming exclusively from cross-sectional surveys, clearly underestimate the scale of the phenomenon. By exploiting data on partnership histories we show that young Poles have increasingly opted for cohabitation. Consequently, in the years 2004-2006, entries to cohabitation constituted about one third of all first union entries. Consensual unions have traditionally been seen as being more widespread among the lower social strata, but a clear increase in cohabitation has been also been recently observed among groups with higher levels of educational attainment. Données The Employment, Family and Education Survey (EFES) which is used in this study took place in the fourth quarter of 20064. It is a retrospective survey which provides us with monthly data on 3,000 life histories of women born 1966-1981.


22 Quoi Understanding low fertility in Poland. Demographic consequences of gendered discrimination in employment and post-socialist neoliberal restructuring Qui Joanna Z. Mishtal Où Demographic research Quand 27 octobre 2009 Quoi encore These data reveal that discriminatory practices by employers against pregnant women and women with small children are decisive in womens decisions to postpone or forego childbearing. The case of Poland demonstrates the urgent need to redress fundamental gendered discrimination in employment before work-family reconciliation policies can be effective. Données I investigated these issues in a research study conducted from May until August 2007 in Poland. The project was a descriptive cross-sectional survey with qualitative and quantitative primary data collection in Gdańsk and the Tricity area. The Tricity (the contiguous towns of Gdańsk, Gdynia, and Sopot) is the second largest (after Warsaw) urban region in Poland with a population of over one million in the metro area, located on the Baltic coast in the north of the country. I carried out 55 qualitative interviews and 418 quantitative surveys with women ages 18-40 in four major healthcare facilities.


24 Quoi Lowest-Low Fertility: Signs of a recovery in Italy? Qui Marcantonio Caltabiano; Maria Castiglioni; Alessandro Rosina Où Demographic research Quand 6 novembre 2009 Quoi encore This study aims to describe the process of birth postponement and recovery in Italy, a country with persistent very low fertility levels. The case of Italy is particularly significant given that this country carries great demographic weight in "Southern Europe"; an area characterized by cultural and institutional specificities which have important implications for the timing of family formation and the final number of children. We find that a recovery is presently in progress in the northern regions of Italy, even if not all postponed births are recovered. As expected, signs of recovery are above all evident among the youngest generations and more educated women. Données The regional-level, age-specific fertility rates analyzed here come from two different sources: Stato Civile, which registers births from the actual (de facto) population (Istat 1997, 1998a, 1998b, 2000) for the years 1952-1998, and Anagrafe, which records births from the resident (de jure) population, for the years 1999-2007. Birth data by parity and mothers age are not available after 1996 (Bonarini 2006).


26 Quoi When Harry left Sally: A New Estimate of Marital Disruption in the U.S., 1860 - 1948 Qui Tomas Cvrcek Où Demographic research Quand 10 novembre 2009 Quoi encore Divorce rate is a poor indicator of marital instability because many marital disruptions never become divorces. This paper provides the first estimate of the rate of marital disruption in the U.S. in 1860 - 1948. Marital disruption rate was similar to divorce rate after the Civil War but the two rates wildly diverged in the early 20th century. In 1900 - 1930, the disruption rate was as much as double the divorce rate, implying that perhaps half of all disruptions never reached the court. In the long run, the cohort rate of marital disruption increased from about 10% in the mid-1860s to about 30% in the 1940s. Données The size of each marital cohort was obtained from Jacobson (1959: Table 2). The same data are also cited in Plateris (1973: Table 1). Jacobson (1959) obtained the number of marriages for 1867 – 1956 from National Office of Vital Statistics and estimated those for 1860 – 1866 himself. The proportion of a marriage cohort that is still intact at a point in time is estimated with the aid of the IPUMS (Ruggles et al. 2008) and the totals from Jacobson (1959). Three US censuses – those in 1900, 1910 and 1950 – included a question about duration of current marriage (variable DURMARR ).


28 Demography

29 Urbanization and Fertility: An Event-History Analysis of Coastal Ghana Fertility Effects of Abortion and Birth Control Pill Access for Minors No Trend in the Intergenerational Transmission of Divorce Prenatal Health Investment Decisions: Does the Childs Sex Matter? Marriage Behavior Response to Prime-Age Adult Mortality: Evidence from Malawi Bayesian Estimation of Hispanic Fertility Hazards from Survey and Population Data Family Boundary Ambiguity and the Measurement of Family Structure: The Significance of Cohabitation The Rising Share of Nonmarital Births: Is It Only Compositional Effects? Comment: There may be Compositional Effects, but They Do Not Work that Way Composition and Decomposition in Nonmarital Fertility (3 réponses à: The Rising Share of Nonmarital Births: Fertility Choice or Marriage Behavior.) Unwed Fathers Ability to Pay Child Support: New Estimates Accounting for Multiplepartner Fertility Parental Imprisonment, the Prison Boom, and the Concentration of Childhood Disadvantage Motherhood, Labor Force Behavior, and Womens Careers: An Empirical Assessment of the Wage Penalty for Motherhood in Britain, Germany, and the United States Proximate Sources of Population Sex Imbalance in India Family Allowances and Fertility: Socioeconomic Differences Consequences of Family Disruption on Children's Educational Outcomes in Norway The Effect of Sexual Abstinence on Females Educational Attainment The Evolution of Fertility Expectations Over the Life Course Cohabitation and Family Formation in Japan

30 Quoi Fertility Effects of Abortion and Birth Control Pill Access for Minors Qui Melanie Guldi Où Demography Quand Novembre 2008 Quoi encore In this article, age-specific policy variables measure either a minors legal ability to obtain an abortion or to obtain the birth control pill without parental involvement. I find fairly strong evidence that young womens birthrates dropped as a result of abortion access as well as evidence that birth control pill access led to a drop in birthrates among whites. Données As described in the text of the article, data on births come from the 1968–1979 Vital Statistics Natality Detail Files,and population estimates come from the U.S. Census Bureau. Policy Variables come from sources listed in the notes to Table 1 [Alan Guttmacher Institute (2003, 1978); Council of State Governments (1972, 1973); Merz et al. (1995); Paul and Pilpel (1979); Paul, Pilpel, and Wechsler (1974, 1976); and Pilpel and Wechsler (1969, 1971); U.S. DHEW (1974).]


32 Quoi Family Boundary Ambiguity and the Measurement of Family Structure: The Significance of Cohabitation Qui Susan L. Brown Wendy D. Manning Où Demography Quand Février 2009 Quoi encore We examine family boundary ambiguity in adolescent and mother reports of family structure and found that the greater the family complexity, the more likely adolescent and mother reports of family structure were discrepant. This boundary ambiguity in reporting was most pronounced for cohabiting stepfamilies. Among mothers who reported living with a cohabiting partner, only one-third of their teenage children also reported residing in a cohabiting stepfamily. Conversely, for those adolescents who reported their family structure as a cohabiting stepfamily, just two-thirds of their mothers agreed. Levels of agreement between adolescents and mothers about residing in a two-biological-parent family, single- mother family, or married stepfamily were considerably higher. Estimates of the distribution of adolescents across family structures vary according to whether adolescent, mother, or combined reports are used. Moreover, the relationship between family structure and family processes differed depending on whose reports of family structure were used, and boundary ambiguity was associated with several key family processes. Données The first wave of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health


34 Quoi Motherhood, Labor Force Behavior, and Womens Careers: An Empirical Assessment of the Wage Penalty for Motherhood in Britain, Germany, and the United States Qui Markus Gangl Andrea Ziefle Où Demography Quand Mai 2009 Quoi encore We establish wage penalties for motherhood between 9% and 18% per child, with wage losses among American and British mothers being lower than those experienced by mothers in Germany. Labor market mechanisms generating the observed wage penalty for motherhood differ markedly across countries, however. For British and American women, work interruptions and subsequent mobility into mother-friendly jobs fully account for mothers wage losses. In contrast, respective penalties are considerably smaller in Germany, yet we observe a substantial residual wage penalty that is unaccounted for by mothers observable labor market behavior. We interpret this finding as indicating a comparatively more pronounced role for statistical discrimination against mothers in the German labor market. Données Harmonized longitudinal data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY)


36 Quoi The Evolution of Fertility Expectations Over the Life Course Qui Sarah R. Hayford Où Demography Quand Novembre 2009 Quoi encore Group-based trajectory analysis illuminates common patterns in the evolution of fertility intentions and identifies individual characteristics associated with these patterns. Factors related to family formation, such as marriage and whether a woman has a child at an early age, are found to be the most consistent correlates of patterns of change in expected family size. Données National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1979 cohort


38 European Journal of Population

39 Fertility and Womens Employment: A Meta-analysis Impact of Induced Abortion on Fertility in Romania Book review - Jacqueline Scott, Judith Treas and Martin Richards (eds): The Blackwell Companion to the Sociology of Families Marital and Reproductive Behavior in Italy After 1995: Bridging the Gap with Western Europe? The Influence of Partner Relationship Quality on Fertility Economic Consequences of Union Dissolution in Italy: Findings from the European Community Household Panel Childcare Cash Benefits and Fertility Timing in Norway Italys Path to Very Low Fertility: The Adequacy of Economic and Second Demographic Transition Theories Sweeping Changes in Marriage, Cohabitation and Childbearing in Central and Eastern Europe: New Insights from the Developmental Idealism Framework High Fertility in City Suburbs: Compositional or Contextual Effects? (book review) Tiziana Nazio: Cohabitation, Family and Society Traces of the Second Demographic Transition in Four Selected Countries in Central and Eastern Europe: Union Formation as a Demographic Manifestation Change and Stability in Parent–Child Contact in Five Western Countries Family Composition and Remarriage in Pre-Transitional Italy: A Comparative Study Religious Socialisation and Fertility: Transition to Third Birth in The Netherlands

40 Quoi Fertility and Womens Employment: A Meta-analysis Qui Anna Matysiak and Daniele Vignoli Où European Journal of Population Quand Décembre 2008 Quoi encore Notre objectif est de faire la synthèse de la littérature concernant la relation entre fécondité et travail des femmes à léchelle micro, et nous avons effectué une méta-analyse plutôt quune synthèse traditionnelle. Ceci nous a permis de comparer les estimations de différentes études en ajustant pour le pays, la méthode danalyse, les variables de contrôle, et léchantillon. Nous avons considère deux effets: limpact du travail sur la fécondité, et limpact des jeunes enfants sur lentrée de la mère dans la vie professionnelle. En premier lieu, nous avons observé une forte variation des effets en fonction du contexte détude, avec lexistence dun gradient Nord-Sud. En second lieu, nous démontrons que la non prise en compte de la position sociale du sujet, de celle de son partenaire et des caractéristiques de lemploi tend à conduire à des biais dans lestimation des effets. Données NA


42 Quoi The Influence of Partner Relationship Quality on Fertility Qui Arieke J. Rijken and Aart C. Liefbroer Où European Journal of Population Quand Février 2009 Quoi encore Cette étude examine linfluence de la qualité de la relation avec le partenaire sur la fécondité, et cherche à identifier les aspects de la relation les plus pertinents par rapport à cette question. Différentes hypothèses sont explorées. La première postule que plus la qualité de la relation est bonne, plus la fécondité est élevée, car une relation de bonne qualité offre le contexte le plus favorable pour élever des enfants. A lopposé, une deuxième hypothèse postule que plus la qualité de la relation est mauvaise, plus la fécondité est élevée, car les couples pourraient avoir des enfants pour améliorer leur relation. Des modèles de durée sont utilisés pour analyser les trois vagues du Panel dEtude de lIntégration Sociale aux Pays-Bas. Il apparaît que les interactions positives, de même que les interactions négatives entre partenaires ont une influence négative sur les naissances de rang 1 et sur les suivantes. Ce résultat suggère que les couples ont le plus de chances davoir des enfants sils ont des interactions qui ne sont ni trop bonnes, ni trop mauvaises. Laccord entre partenaires au niveau du système de valeurs influence de façon négative les naissances de rang supérieur. Données The data used in this study are from the PSIN (Liefbroer and Kalmijn 1997). This study consists of six waves of data collection (1987–2006) among a sample of Dutch young adults.


44 Quoi High Fertility in City Suburbs: Compositional or Contextual Effects? Qui H. Kulu and P.J. Boyle Où European Journal of Population Quand Mai 2009 Quoi encore Les taux de fécondité sont connus pour être plus élevés dans les banlieues que dans les villes. Cette caractéristique pourrait sexpliquer soit un effet du contexte suburbain sur le comportement des individus, soit par le rôle de la composition de la population. De plus, les migrants récemment arrivés en banlieue et qui souhaitent avoir des enfants pourraient exercer une influence significative sur les taux de fécondité dans ces zones. A laide de données longitudinales de registre finlandais, nous établissons que les taux de fécondité sont plus élevés dans les banlieues et les zones rurales que dans les villes. Les variations entre contextes résidentiels se réduisent significativement après prise en compte des caractéristiques démographiques et socio-économiques des femmes. Toutefois, ces variations ne disparaissent pas entièrement, ce qui laisse penser que le contexte local pourrait exercer une influence sur la fécondité. Alors que les nouveaux arrivants dans les banlieues ont une fécondité plus élevée que les habitants de longue date, leur rôle reste limité car ils ne constituent quune petite part de la population suburbaine. Données Finnish Longitudinal Fertility Register


46 Quoi Religious Socialisation and Fertility: Transition to Third Birth in The Netherlands Qui Caroline Berghammer Où European Journal of Population Quand Août 2009 Quoi encore A laide des techniques de lanalyse des biographies, les probabilités dagrandissement de rang 1, rang 2 et rang 3 ont été modélisées de façon conjointe, en contrôlant lhétérogénéité non observée. Les résultats mettent en évidence limpact de la fréquentation actuelle de léglise par les femmes et de leur socialisation religieuse, mesurée par lappartenance religieuse de leur père quand elles étaient adolescentes. Il apparaît que la religiosité du contexte familial exerce une influence, même quand la femme ne fréquente plus léglise, et que les effets des indicateurs de pratique religieuse se renforcent dune génération à lautre. Enfin, lappartenance religieuse conjointe des parents de la femme détermine significativement la probabilité davoir un troisième enfant. Données Les données exploitées sont celles de la première vague du Panel Néerlandais dEtude de la Parenté (the Netherlands Kinship Panel Study, 2002–2004).


48 Journal of Population Economics

49 Does child gender affect marital status? Evidence from Australia Birth order matters: the effect of family size and birth order on educational attainment The influence of wages on parents allocations of time to child care and market work in the United Kingdom Understanding the link between the economy and teenage sexual behavior and fertility outcomes The earned income tax credit and fertility Fertility, child care outside the home, and pay-as-you-go social security Effects of public education and social security on fertility On high fertility rates in developing countries: birth limits, birth taxes, or education subsidies? The impact of changes in child support policy Does mothers employment conflict with child development? Multilevel analysis of British mothers born in 1958 Who benefits from paid family leave? Impact of expansions in Canadian paid family leave on maternal employment and transfer income Happiness functions with preference interdependence and heterogeneity: the case of altruism within the family Strategic altruistic transfers and rent seeking within the family The fertility effect of catastrophe: U.S. hurricane births Variety expansion and fertility rates Demographic transitions: analyzing the effects of mortality on fertility Household division of labor and cross-country differences in household formation rates

50 Quoi Birth order matters: the effect of family size and birth order on educational attainment Qui Alison L. Booth and Hiau Joo Kee Où Journal of Population Economics Quand Avril 2009 Quoi encore Theory suggests a trade-off between child quantity and quality and that siblings are unlikely to receive equal shares of parental resources devoted to childrens education. We construct a new birth order index that effectively purges family size from birth order and use this to test if siblings are assigned equal shares in the familys educational resources. We find that the shares are decreasing with birth order. Ceteris paribus, children from larger families have less education, and the family size effect does not vanish when we control for birth order. These findings are robust to numerous specification checks. Données The British Household Panel Survey


52 Quoi Who benefits from paid family leave? Impact of expansions in Canadian paid family leave on maternal employment and transfer income Qui Maria Hanratty and Eileen Trzcinski Où Journal of Population Economics Quand Juillet 2009 Quoi encore This paper estimates the impact of a recent expansion in Canadian paid family leave from 25 to 50 weeks on maternal employment and transfer income. It finds the expansion coincided with increases in transfers to mothers of children age zero to one relative to mothers of children age three to four, and with decreases in returns to work in the year after birth. These changes were concentrated among economically advantaged groups of women, defined by marital status, education, and non-wage income. Despite these changes, there was no evidence of a decrease in returns to work or relative employment for mothers of children age one. Données National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth (NLSCY)


54 Quoi On high fertility rates in developing countries: birth limits, birth taxes, or education subsidies? Qui Yuhua Shi and Jie Zhang Où Journal of Population Economics Quand Juillet 2009 Quoi encore In this paper, we consider two types of population policies observed in practice: birth limits and birth taxes. We find that both achieve very similar equilibrium solutions if tax revenue finances lump-sum transfers. By reducing fertility and promoting growth, both birth policies may achieve higher welfare than conventional education subsidies financed by income taxes. A birth tax for education subsidies can achieve the first-best solution. The welfare gain of the first-best policy may be equivalent to a massive 10–50% rise in income, depending on the degree of human capital externalities and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. Données NA


56 QuoiThe fertility effect of catastrophe: U.S. hurricane births QuiRichard W. Evans, Yingyao Hu and Zhong Zhao OùJournal of Population Economics QuandJanvier 2010 Quoi encoreAnecdotal evidence has suggested increased fertility rates resulting from catastrophic events in an area. In this paper, we measure this fertility effect using storm advisory data and fertility data for the Atlantic and Gulf-coast counties of the USA. We find that low-severity storm advisories are associated with a positive and significant fertility effect and that high-severity advisories have a significant negative fertility effect. As the type of advisory goes from least severe to most severe, the fertility effect of the specific advisory type decreases monotonically from positive to negative. We also find some other interesting demographic effects. DonnéesThe storm advisory data come from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) of the US National Weather Service (NWS).The US birth data come from the National Vital Statistics System of the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS).


58 Journal of Population Research

59 Utilizing relationship matrices to better understand the diversity of household arrangements among romantic couples: A cross-country example Changes in household formation and composition in China since the mid- twentieth century Diversity and change in Cambodian households, 1998–2006 Household diversity and dynamics of recent immigrants in Australia Parenting a child with a disability: An examination of resident and non-resident fathers Family structure and well-being at older ages in Japan The effects of family caps on the subsequent fertility decisions of never-married mothers (book review) Susana Lerner and Eric Vilquin (eds): Reproductive Health, Unmet Needs and Poverty: Issues of Access and Quality of Services Increases in childlessness in New Zealand The transition to lower fertility in the West Bank and Gaza Strip: evidence from recent surveys Application of the Own-Children Method for estimating fertility by ethnic and religious groups in the UK Future low fertility prospects in Mongolia? An evaluation of the factors that support having a child Indias North–South divide and theories of fertility change (book review) Geoff Childs: Tibetan transitions: historical and contemporary perspectives on fertility, family planning and demographic change (book review) Arland Thornton, William G. Axinn and Yu Xie: Marriage and cohabitation

60 QuoiUtilizing relationship matrices to better understand the diversity of household arrangements among romantic couples: A cross-country example QuiPeter D. Brandon OùJournal of Population Research QuandOctobre 2008 Quoi encore Changes in families over the past thirty years have created methodological challenges for research on family variation. Some argue that standard survey methods used for collecting data on families have been outpaced by the transformation of families and hence estimates of family variation are maccurate and opportunities for cross-country comparisons of family variation are hampered. This situation is rectifiable through greater use of relationship matrices. This underused data collection method can precisely portray family variation and facilitate cross- country comparisons. To illustrate the methods usefulness for family research, relationship matrices data on young persons from Australia and the United States are exploited to: depict individuals living arrangements; identify patterns in partnering and childbearing; describe demographic diversity across types of couples; and compare family variation across countries. DonnéesThe Household, Income, and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey and the 2001 Panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP).


62 QuoiIncreases in childlessness in New Zealand QuiBill Boddington and Robert Didham OùJournal of Population Research QuandJuin 2009 Quoi encore Data from the 1981, 1996 and 2006 censuses show a pattern of delayed childbearing and increased childlessness. In a little over 30 years, childlessness has shifted from being almost entirely a consequence of a couples infecundity to being as frequently a result of a womans life choices. The steady rises in childlessness recorded by successive cohorts suggest that childlessness is already having a significant effect on New Zealand fertility. Patterns in characteristics of those women choosing not to start families, as well as subtle differences in these patterns between New Zealand and other developed nations, suggest that there is a significant potential for childlessness to cause a more dramatic shift in New Zealands total fertility rate. This analysis examines growth in childlessness in relation to marital status, country of birth, ethnicity, regional and urban differentials, religion, and educational attainment of women who were childless at the 1981, 1996 and 2006 censuses. DonnéesStatistics NZ, census of population and dwellings 1981, 1996, 2006


64 QuoiIndias North–South divide and theories of fertility change QuiPremchand Dommaraju and Victor Agadjanian OùJournal of Population Research QuandSeptembre 2009 Quoi encoreEconomic condition and womens status have been considered important elements in understanding fertility change. In this study, we examine their influence on North–South differences in parity-specific fertility intentions and births in India using the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-2) conducted in 1998–1999. The results show the persistence of spatial variations in fertility intentions and births, net of economic and womens status factors. The influence of these factors is more pronounced in the high fertility region. This study argues that changes in fertility desires and their actualization may be better understood when situated within the broader socio-political context. DonnéesNational Family Health Survey (NFHS-2) conducted in 1998–1999



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