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Unité Halieutique Manche-Mer du Nord, HMMN Colloque franco-japonais 17-18 Octobre 2013 Development of end-to-end models to describe the dynamics of exploited.

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Presentation on theme: "Unité Halieutique Manche-Mer du Nord, HMMN Colloque franco-japonais 17-18 Octobre 2013 Development of end-to-end models to describe the dynamics of exploited."— Presentation transcript:

1 Unité Halieutique Manche-Mer du Nord, HMMN Colloque franco-japonais Octobre 2013 Development of end-to-end models to describe the dynamics of exploited marine ecosystems in the Eastern Channel - Loïc Baulier - Raphaël Girardin - Olivier Le Pape (Agropcampus-Ouest) - Martin Huret - Morgane Travers-Trolet - Sandrine Vaz - Paul Marchal

2 Unité Halieutique Manche-Mer du Nord, HMMN Colloque franco-japonais Octobre 2013 Outline From data collection to mapping information layers and spatial analyses (since 2003) From spatial analyses to ecosystem modeling (since 2011) From conceptual modelling to ecosystem-based advice-giving (prospect)

3 Unité Halieutique Manche-Mer du Nord, HMMN From data collection to spatial analyses: Habitat models Colloque franco-japonais, octobre 2013

4 Unité Halieutique Manche-Mer du Nord, HMMN From data collection to spatial analyses: Habitat models Colloque franco-japonais, octobre 2013 Sensitivity of model parameters Distribution of residuals Model uncertainty Différent statistical models Juveniles Adults KRIGING GLMGAM RQ Interpolated and estimated distribution of whiting habitat Caractérisation environnementale des frayères de la morue Modelling essential habitats

5 Unité Halieutique Manche-Mer du Nord, HMMN From data collection to spatial analyses: Trophic networks Colloque franco-japonais, octobre 2013

6 Unité Halieutique Manche-Mer du Nord, HMMN From data collection to spatial analyses: Larvae trajectories

7 Unité Halieutique Manche-Mer du Nord, HMMN From data collection to spatial analyses: Fleet dynamics Colloque franco-japonais, octobre 2013 Fishers behaviour is mainly driven by past activities but also… Other fleets distribution: Other maritime activities and spatial management: Fishers behaviour is mainly driven by past activities but also… Other fleets distribution: Other maritime activities and spatial management: Ability to forecast the future: forecast 2009 behaviour Passive gears m Passive gears <10m

8 Unité Halieutique Manche-Mer du Nord, HMMN From spatial analyses to ecosystem modelling: OSMOSE OSMOSE MODEL Spatial multi-species individual- based model (IBM) Full life cycle Individual variability Main processes: growth, predation, migration, reproduction, mortalities (natural, by predation, due to fishing,) Size-structured model based on opportunistic predation Based on spatio-temporal co-occurrence & size adequacy between prey and predator Allows emergence of local trophic interactions and dynamic food web structure Grid 6 x 6 Time step : 15 days 14 species

9 Unité Halieutique Manche-Mer du Nord, HMMN From spatial analyses to ecosystem modelling: OSMOSE OSMOSE MODEL Coupled to a Bio-physical model Dynamics of plankton groups forced by physics (current, T°, light, salinity…) Coupling through the predation process: plankton as prey field for small fish ECO-MARS 3D MODEL Cumulative annual production of diatoms (gC.m -2.an -1 ) in 2003

10 Unité Halieutique Manche-Mer du Nord, HMMN From spatial analyses to ecosystem modelling: OSMOSE OSMOSE MODEL ECO-MARS 3D MODEL BENTHIC PREY FIELDS Ophiothrix fragilis

11 Unité Halieutique Manche-Mer du Nord, HMMN From spatial analyses to ecosystem modelling: ATLANTIS Colloque franco-japonais, octobre 2013

12 Unité Halieutique Manche-Mer du Nord, HMMN From ecosystem modelling to ecosystem-based advice Colloque franco-japonais, octobre 2013

13 Unité Halieutique Manche-Mer du Nord, HMMN From ecosystem modelling to ecosystem-based advice Colloque franco-japonais, octobre 2013 Testing the sensitivity of complex ecosystem models using advanced methods Testing various scenarios considered using OSMOSE & ATLANTIS A2 National EnterpriseB1 Global Community Fuel price % of % of 2010 Fish price % of % of 2010 MPAsFishing limitedFishing banned Relative stabilitystrictloose Shipping % of % of 2010 Wind energySome plans realisedAll plans realised Aggregate extractionSome plans realisedAll plans realised


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