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Energy Transition in France and Deep Decarbonisation Scenarios: experiences and agenda P. Criqui, CNRS, PACTE-EDDEN.

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Presentation on theme: "Energy Transition in France and Deep Decarbonisation Scenarios: experiences and agenda P. Criqui, CNRS, PACTE-EDDEN."— Presentation transcript:

1 Energy Transition in France and Deep Decarbonisation Scenarios: experiences and agenda
P. Criqui, CNRS, PACTE-EDDEN

2 A prelude to decarbonisation scenarios
P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

3 Looking back: King Coal again !
P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

4 Looking back: CO2 emissions after Kyoto
P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

5 Looking forward: exploratory and normative scenarios
Source SHELL: Mountains and Oceans scenarios 5

6 Looking forward: the plausible and the desirable
BaU: from 2000 to 2050, population is multiplied by 1.5, GWP by 4 , TPES by 2; the O&G levelling-off induces the comeback of coal A responsible climate policy requires: a lower total demand (-20% / BaU), a balanced energy supply mix and a massive CCS development 4°C 2°C Source: POLES model, EDDEN P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February 21 Février

7 Tools: IAMs in the FP7 AMPERE project
Source: Elmar Kriegler PIK, AMPERE Venice meeting, May 2012 P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

8 FP7 AMPERE: Diagnostics
Source: Elmar Kriegler PIK, AMPERE Venice meeting, May 2012 8

9 Scenarios viewed from SPM T5 of IPCC-AR4
ΔT°C Baseline 0 €/tCO2 Muddling Through Europe Alone 40 €/tCO2 Global Regime 400 €/tCO2 Em. 2050/2000 P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

10 Philosophical background: the “Science and Policy Nexus”
Extending on the Edenhofer and Kowarsch (2013) contribution on “Science and policy advice”, one can identify 4 types of visions: Positivist-scientist: facts are facts and there is one best solution for any problem; scientists are the best collocated for taking the right decisions (Hans Jonas’ “government by the scientists”; in economics, W. Nordhaus with the Intertemporal Cost-Benefit Analysis of climate policies Positivist-decisionist: there is one best solution, but in everyday’s life policy-makers are “muddling through” while arbitraging between scientific statements, industries’ short-term interests and social acceptability constraints Constructivist-relativist: facts are entwined with value judgements and for many social scientists (“science studies”) every discourse is socially constructed; this applies to the scientific discourse that do not have a natural pre-eminence (B. Latour: we can politically decide that there is a human influence on climate) Pragmatic-enlighted model: different solutions exist to any problem, depending on value judgements; but the role of scientists is to identify the problems and the solutions in a given context, while documenting and assessing their consequences (John Dewey’s process of scientific inquiry) P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

11 Deep Decarbonisation Pathways: a research agenda
Case 1: the four trajectories in the deliberative framework of the National Debate on Energy Transition (DNTE) Case 2: transition scenarios and technologies in the National Alliance for Energy Research (ANCRE) exercise Deep Decarbonisation Pathways: a research agenda P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

12 The National Debate on Energy Transition in 2013
This new step in French energy policy, with a new law expected in 2014, has been prepared by a “deliberative process” that took place in the first half of 2013: A coordination committee A National Council (7x16 members from NGOs, Trade-Unions, Business, MPs, Mayors...) A group of 45 experts in charge of producing relevant and validated analytical materials A citizen and an industry group... P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

13 A great diversity of energy scenarios to 2050 for France
Hypotheses and results have been gathered from 16 pre-existing scenarios to 2050 A very wide range of energy futures: total electricity consumption varies from 450 TWh today to between 280 and 820 TWh in 2050 The main goal of the scenario working group and of its experts has been to: identify a limited number of structural “trajectories” evaluate them in a mulitcriteria approach P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

14 Priority to Renewable En. Priority to Nuclear Energy
Four families of scenarios or “trajectories” have finally been identified BaU Transition BaU Very low demand (-50% en 2050) Low demand (-20% en 2050) Priority to Renewable En. Diversifi-cation Diversifi-cation Priority to Nuclear Energy Four Trajectories: Explored by 15 scenarios: SOBriety EFFiciency DIVersity DECarbonization négaWatt ADEME ANCREdiv Négatep Greenpeace GRDF RTEnouvmix RTEmed WWF ANCREsob DGECams-o ANCREele Global Chance ENCILOCARBrenf UFE P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

15 National and international commitments
Two commitments or policy targets are structuring the different trajectories: the Factor 4 in emissions (-75% in 2050 / 1990) the reduction in the share of nuclear energy to 50% by 2025, target set by President FH Only the “Decarbonization by electricity” scenario doesn’t meet the second target of 50% nuclear All scenarios meet the “Factor 4 in emissions” target, but some choose a teleological approach while others adopt a “realistic” approach to changes in the system 544 MtCO2 in 1973 (-30%) P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

16 What level of reduction in energy demand ?
A strong divergence emerged in the Debate, some favouring a strong reduction in energy demand (-50% to be included in the future law), while other advocated a more moderate reduction, compensated by more low carbon supply P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

17 Structure of the power generation mix
P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

18 A framework for the assessment of transition trajectories
The role of the experts was in no way to express their preference and even less to choose one of the four trajectories Even the multi-criteria analysis couldn’t end in a notation of the different categories of impacts the scenario along the 12 criteria, e.g. from (--) to (0) and (++) The main reason is the lack of quantified indicators for highly complex issues, such as vulnerability to crises or accidents, robustness of the electricity system or environmental and health impacts Only some criteria, mostly connected to economic sectoral impacts, were quantified and compared P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

19 Quantification of the transition investment: 1. retrofitting
The energy retrofitting of existing buildings is a key battlefield in the energy transition Scenarios may differ in the share of the total stock that is retrofitted so as in the depth (performance) of each operation Many obstacles – financing, transaction costs – will have to be overcome -44% -69% Source RENOVsim P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

20 Quantification of the transition investment: 2. power sector
Investment dynamics are key elements in the assessment of the different scenarios; in the case of France the phasing in of Variable Renewable Energies and of New Nuclear has major impact A dedicated tool – ELECsim -- has been deigned for describing these trajectories Source ELECsim P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

21 Macro-economic impacts: the problem of employment
Assessing the impact of Transition Trajectories on employment is a key issue; this should lead to quantify direct and indirect employment, created and destructed... The question of the induced employment after the taking into account of all macroeconomic, competitiveness and external trade effects is the most tricky one; this all the more that the impact may clearly overcome the direct and indirect effect Detailed macroeconomic models may provide useful insights on the main mechanisms, however their aggregate results still lack of robustness The key issue is: what is the level of energy efficiency investment that will best serve households’ budget and industries’ competitiveness ??? Source: CIRED évaluation négaWatt P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

22 Impacts on the environment, land use, resources…
In spite of many academic or applied research in the field of energy-related environmental externalities (e.g. EU ExternE projects), the capability to address the environmental impacts of energy scenarios remains limited This should be a major issue for France. In the French transition process, only a very limited set of impacts have been quantified P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

23 Lessons from the scenario comparison exercise
Each submitted scenario reflects a “worldview”, loaded with value judgements, but the common reporting templates allowed to identify the four trajectories and provided a consistent basis for the comparison Although incomplete, the multi-criteria assessment approach enabled discussion among the different stakeholder categories on clearly identified hypotheses and outcomes By lack of sufficient analytical background – but also due to the nature of the problem – the debate on the realism, feasibility, desirability of the trajectories remained open... P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

24 Deep Decarbonisation Pathways: a research agenda
Case 1: the four trajectories in the deliberative framework of the National Debate on Energy Transition (DNTE) Case 2: transition scenarios and technologies in the National Alliance for Energy Research (ANCRE) exercise Deep Decarbonisation Pathways: a research agenda P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

25 ANCRE: National Alliance for Energy Research
Created in 2009, the National Alliance for Energy Research allows researchers from CNRS, CEA, IFPEN, Universities and other research organisms to exchange information and participate in common activities on new energy technologies and solutions Its first goal was to increase the coordination of activities... and turn pre-existing competition into cooperation In it developed a new activity on foresight and scenarios with the aim of providing feasible and cost-effective scenarios, based on the contributions of high-level expert Working Groups P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

26 ANCRE: The Working Groups
ANCRE has 10 working groups organized by type of energy source or consumption sector: WG1 – Biomass energy WG2 – Fossil sources and geothermal energy WG3 – Nuclear technologies WG4 – Solar technologies, PV and CSP WG5 – Wind and marine energies WG6 – Transport WG7 – Building WG8 – Industry and agriculture WG9 – Socio-economics and scenarios WG10 – Networks and storage SUPPLY DEMAND SYSTEMS P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

27 ANCRE: The scenarios By fall 2012, prior to the DNTE process, ANCRE WG9 had defined three scenarios : SOBriety, ELEctrification, DIVersity The DIV scenario has been chosen as representative for the Diversity trajectory in the National Debate Structuring targets are Factor in emissions in 2050 and 50% nuclear production in 2025 A fourth scenario then relaxed the 50% constraint WG9 on scenarios: Nathalie Alazard-Toux*, Patrick Criqui, Jean-Guy Devezeauxǂ Alain Le Duigouǂ, Elisabeth Le Netǂ, Alban Liegeard*, Daphné Lorne*, Sandrine Mathy, Philippe Menanteau, Henri Safaǂ, Olivier Teissier, Benjamin Topperǂ * IFPEN,  CNRS, ǂ CEA,  CSTB P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

28 A methodology for across sectors technico-economic assessment
The balance between changes in behaviours and in technologies has been set on a sector by sector basis while trying to avoid extreme changes in behavioural patterns After identification of key activity/energy intensity parameters and of the possibilities of the supply-transformation system, simulations showed that the Factor 4 is an attainable but extremely ambitious target Going beyond the Factor 4 for energy, in order to compensate for lesser reduction in other GHGs (agriculture) would involve “game changers” i.e. breakthrough technologies P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

29 in passenger transport Ruptures d’efficacité énergétique
Transport: challenges in the different scenarios Transport Hypothèses technologiques Energy intensity in passenger transport Développements technologiques transport Sobriété Renforcée Développement de véhicules serviciels adaptés aux parcours et à l’autopartage Décarbonisation par l’électricité Forte pénétration des solutions électriques 2030 véhicules électrifiés représentent 65% des ventes (1er véhicule = PHEV, 2ème véhicule = EV) A partir de 2030 les livraisons intra-urbaine sont électriques (via politique publique) Développement de l’Hydrogène Couloir H2 pour les camions dès 2030 Développement Bus H2, VP à partir de 2040 Vecteurs diversifiés Amélioration de l’efficacité énergétique accélérée -véhicules 2l/100km se généralisent dès 2030 Pénétration du gaz -2030 : Couloir GNL pour les camions et flotte captive -2050 : 50% des Bus GNV, 25% des VP Développement massif des bio-carburants (maintien 1G et développement 2G) -2030 : Production x 2,5 (6Mtep) : Production x 6 (13Mtep) Ruptures d’efficacité énergétique VP 2L/100km : véhicules disponibles 2040 généralisation Poids Lourds / Bus : % consommation (malgré norme de dépollution) Revoir couleur des courbes en accord avec code couleur P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

30 Besoin de formation et qualification des acteurs
Buildings: challenges in the different scenarios Actual energy performance Sobriété Renforcée Parc « neuf » très performant dès 2015, respect immédiat de la RT2012 qui s’améliore à nouveau en 2025 (nouvelle RT) Parc rénové très performant dès 2015 (-70% sur la consommation de chauffage / existant), pas d’effet rebond Décarbonisation par l’électricité Parc « neuf » performant en 2015 (dérive +10% sur le niveau RT2012), qui s’améliore en 2025 (nouvelle RT) Parc rénové performant dès 2015 (-60% sur la consommation de chauffage), pénalisé par un effet rebond de l’ordre de 10% Vecteurs diversifiés Idem ELE, la différenciation porte uniquement sur les vecteurs énergétiques. Innovations technologiques Matériaux (super isolants minces, vitrages performants, VMC, …) Systèmes de chauffage performants (PAC réversibles, mini cogen, stockages thermiques, chauffe-eau thermodynamiques) Monitoring / suivi / optimisation des consommations Approches systémiques intégrées, réseaux intelligents (elec – chaleur) Besoin de formation et qualification des acteurs P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

31 Industry: efficiency gains in energy intensive industries and other industries
Industrie Hypothèses d’efficacité énergétique Energy intensive industries (from SOB case) Other industries L’amélioration potentielle de l’efficacité énergétique est de 10 à 40 % selon les secteurs (enquête CEREN auprès des industriels) L’amélioration est plus rapide pour les IGCE qui ont un intérêt économique immédiat SOB : 95% du « gisement » atteint en 2050 ELE et DIV : 90% des gains atteints pour le scénario SOB en 2050 P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

32 Electricity production: meeting the 50% target
In spite of the diversification of the electricity system, nuclear remains a major source La gestion de l’intermittence est assurée par: des solutions d’effacement (SOB) du stockage électrique (ELE) de la cogénération (DIV) 2030 2050 P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

33 An extended multi-criteria assessment framework
Evaluation multicritères Tableau synthétique 4 SCENARIOS + BaU ECONOMY-EMPLOYMENT RISK-ENVIRONMENT RESILIENCE-ROBUSTNESS R&D TECHNOLOGY POLICY P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

34 Deep Decarbonisation Pathways: a research agenda
Case 1: the four trajectories in the deliberative framework of the National Debate on Energy Transition (DNTE) Case 2: transition scenarios and technologies in the National Alliance for Energy Research (ANCRE) exercise Deep Decarbonisation Pathways: a research agenda P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

35 The DDPP - Deep Decarbonisation Pathway Project UN-SDSN (Jeff. Sachs)
31 leading research institutions from 12 countries (Australia, Brazil, China, European Union, India, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, the United States of America), covering more than 70% of global C02 emissions. The project aims to: Prepare transparent national deep decarbonization pathways to 2050 to help countries adopt and implement policies to achieve deep decarbonization. Support a positive outcome of the UNFCCC international climate negotiations by 2015 by helping national decision makers and the international community to understand what deep decarbonization implies for individual countries and regions. Review aggregate global emission reduction pathways prepared for AR5 by the WG III in light of the national decarbonization pathways. Build an on-going global network to facilitate learning and promote problem solving in the implementation phase of national of deep decarbonization strategies after 2015 P. Criqui – LEPII-EDDEN – Economie de l’Energie et de l’Environnement –

36 1. The wedges (Jim Williams, Science 2012 and DDPP)
P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

37 2. Robustness (Jim Williams, Science 2012 and DDPP)
P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

38 3. Static economic effciency: equalising the Marginal Abatement Costs
Option, Sector ou Country 1 OSC 3 TOTAL OSC 2 Cost €/tCO2 Quantity (tCO2) P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

39 4. Dynamic efficiency: accounting for learning effects
Wind - ON Wind - OFF Solar - PV Solar - CP P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

40 5. An integrated energy, macroeconomic and industrial strategy (Pantelis Capros, AMPERE 2014)
P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

41 6. Assessing the environmental impacts: the EU ExternE-NEEDS approach
? 3. 1. 2. 4. P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

42 Deep Decarbonisation: a research agenda
Identify the wedges for cost-effective decarbonisation of energy systems (with consideration of the robustness of the system): Energy sobriety/efficiency Decarbonisation of electric and non-electric energy carriers Development of low carbon carriers (electricity) for transport uses Identify the pillars of a consistent macro-economic strategy: A macro-economic framework: investment substituting to recurrent fossil consumption generates new activities and employment, under the constraint of economic competitiveness An industrial strategy combining: innovation, demand-pull, market consolidation (EU scale) and “first-mover advantage” Develop the methodologies for the assessment of the environmental impacts of the different scenarios (accidents and health hazards, air quality, land, water, biodiversity...) P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

43 Annex on DDPP dashboard and technology dynamics
P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

44 A dashboard for national studies
The minimum requirements are to have a compact energy balance (IEA- type)… plus a mini- dashboard on energy demand drivers… plus a dedicated dashboard on low- carb technology deployment (wedges) P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

45 TECHPOL: Nuclear, Coal and Gas
Source: P. Menanteau, P. Criqui laboratoire EDDEN (CNRS-UPMF) BdD TECHPOL laboratoire EDDEN 2010 2025 2050 Discount rate 6,0% Uranium $/MWhe Charbon $/t Gaz $/Mbtu Biomass (€/MWh) Interest rate Fuel price 7,0 8,0 10,0 110,0 115,0 120,0 14,0 18,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 Carbon price €/tCO2 10 50 200 TECHPOL db Nuclear* 1650 MWe Supercritical Pulverized Coal 900 MWe Pulverized Coal + CCS* * 900 MWe Gas Turbine in CC 600 MWe Gas Turbine CC + CCS** 600 MWe Power Technologies Euros 2010 2012 Overn. Inv. Cost €/kW 2000 4000 3500 1600 1500 2600 2210 750 650 1200 1020 Technical lifetime Years 40 25 Construction time 8 3 4 2,5 Fixed O&M cost €/kWy 70 30 60 20 Variable O&M cost €/MWh 5,0 2,0 4,0 Load Factor % 75% 80% Electrical efficiency 33% 45% 46% 35% 58% 59% 60% 48% 52% Global efficiency Decommission share**** 0% 25% 10% 5% Discount rate (%) 6% Total investment Cost 2577 5270 4611 1812 1699 3029 2574 839 727 1362 1158 Fixed cost 37 54 21 33 12 11 19 171 350 306 120 113 201 66 57 107 91 €/toe 19,2 22,3 27,9 112,2 117,3 122,4 285,7 400,0 514,3 Carbon content tCO2/toe 2,2 Carbon price €/tCO2 CO² emissions tCO2/MWh 0,76 0,74 0,10 0,33 0,32 0,04 Fuel cost incl. Carbon 5,8 7,3 29,0 59,0 171,0 35,7 49,5 45,7 74,6 137,8 73,7 92,5 Variable cost 10,8 12,3 31,0 61,0 173,0 39,7 53,5 47,7 76,6 139,9 77,7 96,5 Production cost 47 71 52 81 193 77 87 88 151 99 115 P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

46 TECHPOL: Wind, Solar and Biomass
Source: P. Menanteau, P. Criqui laboratoire EDDEN (CNRS-UPMF) BdD TECHPOL laboratoire EDDEN 2010 2025 2050 Discount rate 6,0% Uranium $/MWhe Charbon $/t Gaz $/Mbtu Biomass (€/MWh) Interest rate Fuel price 7,0 8,0 10,0 110,0 115,0 120,0 14,0 18,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 Carbon price €/tCO2 10 50 200 TECHPOL db Wind Onshore 50 Mwe Wind Offshore 250 Mwe Solar PV*** (large systems) Marine turbines Biomass Steam turbine Power Technologies Euros 2010 2012 Overn. Inv. Cost €/kW 1300 1100 1000 3500 3000 2500 2100 1400 800 5000 Technical lifetime Years 20 15 25 30 Construction time 1 2 2,5 Fixed O&M cost €/kWy 40 35 32 100 90 Variable O&M cost €/MWh 4,0 Load Factor % 24% 26% 38% 40% 13% 14% 80% Electrical efficiency 100% 30% 32% 35% Global efficiency Decommission share**** 5% 10% Discount rate (%) 6% Total investment Cost 1399 1184 1076 3973 3371 2809 2276 1509 862 5300 3180 2766 Fixed cost 77 61 55 153 110 96 178 106 67 160 108 49 122 103 94 409 294 245 63 462 277 241 €/toe 0,0 232,6 290,7 348,8 Carbon content tCO2/toe Carbon price €/tCO2 CO² emissions tCO2/MWh 0,00 Fuel cost incl. Carbon 66,7 78,1 85,7 Variable cost 70,7 82,1 89,7 Production cost 119 131 138 P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

47 LCoE comparisons with TECHPOL
NUC COAL +CCS GAS +CCS WON WOFF SPV MAR BIOM +COGEN P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February

48 Beyond LCoE: system costs
The development of electricity systems based on Variable Renewable Electricity imposes the taking into account of new cost categories, beyond the LCOE The system costs with VRE include (B3S): Adequacy costs for changes in the production capacities, Backup & Storage Balancing costs for load following (ramping, Demand Response and Smartgrids) Network costs for VRE connection, two-way transport, interconnections and Supergrids P. Criqui – CNRS PACTE-EDDEN Les Houches, 3rd of February


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