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Typology of career paths : the insertion period Jean-François Giret Patrick Rousset

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Longitudinal career paths : the insertion Longitudinal career paths and particularly during the insertion and post insertion period were focused on by a large number of studies at the Céreq (centre détudes et de recherche sur les qualifications) In terms of contingency, calendar In terms of contingency, calendar In terms of structures : professional sectors, initial training In terms of structures : professional sectors, initial training In social terms : individuals and families characteristics In social terms : individuals and families characteristics In terms of policies whether national, regional, sectorial In terms of policies whether national, regional, sectorial The study targets defining a typology of youth career paths during the insertion period

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Why a typology of trajectories? Focusing on individuals with an holist perception Focusing on individuals with an holist perception Considering individuals in their own evolution Considering individuals in their own evolution 1.Referring to others. 2.Referring to a general context that evolves during the period. Summarizing and visualizing trajectories Summarizing and visualizing trajectories Linking trajectories to individuals characteristics. Linking trajectories to individuals characteristics. Diploma, gender, social origin, ethnic origin, etc. Particular Objectives : Particular Objectives : Highlighting the descending trajectories (5%). Highlighting the descending trajectories (5%). Taking into account the evolution of fixed term contracts : from stepping stone function towards job insecurity Taking into account the evolution of fixed term contracts : from stepping stone function towards job insecurity

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Which hypothesis ? Trajectories draw individuals behaviors : individuals are masters of their own destiny -> holist approach Trajectories draw individuals behaviors : individuals are masters of their own destiny -> holist approach Individuals are the input Individuals are the input The job market context : balance between supply and demand / between individuals, firms and the government The job market context : balance between supply and demand / between individuals, firms and the government Trajectories depend on individual rationality : Trajectories depend on individual rationality : 1.Ensuing from ones liberties : individuals rationality makes the structure of the job market (demand side) The job market structure is deduced from the typology output The job market structure is deduced from the typology output 2.Ensuing from ones adaptations to environment (supply constraint) The job market structure and practices are the parameters that influence trajectories and types The job market structure and practices are the parameters that influence trajectories and types

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The Data The « Generation 98» survey of the Céreq provides a calendar of hiring situations over 7 years for 16000 young people who left school in 1998. the monthly position indicates the status : The « Generation 98» survey of the Céreq provides a calendar of hiring situations over 7 years for 16000 young people who left school in 1998. the monthly position indicates the status : 5 status of employment: 1 permanent contract PC, 2 fixed term contract FTC, 3 qualification contract, 4 state-subsidized job, 5 temping.5 status of employment: 1 permanent contract PC, 2 fixed term contract FTC, 3 qualification contract, 4 state-subsidized job, 5 temping. 4 status of un-employment : 6 unemployment, 7 inactivity, 8 service national, 9 studies.4 status of un-employment : 6 unemployment, 7 inactivity, 8 service national, 9 studies. State distribution plot Calendar extract

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The context as an input parameter The contracts position individuals on a job market but are also vectors of insertion/ insecurity In practice, firms use fixed term contracts/temping : 1.as a trial period mainly with inexperienced young people 2.as temporary jobs mainly for experienced young people Evolution in time : Evolution in time : One may benefit from 1 as well as 2 but not at the same period of ones lifeOne may benefit from 1 as well as 2 but not at the same period of ones life In case 1, the Fixed Term Contract mainly eventually leads to a permanent Contract unlike case 2In case 1, the Fixed Term Contract mainly eventually leads to a permanent Contract unlike case 2 The FTC leads to a PC over the first 3 years and declines towards job insecurityThe FTC leads to a PC over the first 3 years and declines towards job insecurity The FTC is more insecure/secure during crisis/economic growthThe FTC is more insecure/secure during crisis/economic growth State-subsidized jobs vary with government policiesState-subsidized jobs vary with government policies Including context in parameters by Establishing a distance between status -> hypothesis that the context is constant in timeEstablishing a distance between status -> hypothesis that the context is constant in time Establishing a distance between status indexed with months -> hypothesis that the context evolves during the periodEstablishing a distance between status indexed with months -> hypothesis that the context evolves during the period

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Status and state The trajectory is encoded with the status The trajectory is encoded with the status T=(FTC, FTC, FTC, PC, PC, PC), FTC=fixed term contract PC= permanent contractT=(FTC, FTC, FTC, PC, PC, PC), FTC=fixed term contract PC= permanent contract The status refers to the definitionThe status refers to the definition The state refers to a functionThe state refers to a function The situation is the state indexed with time in order to consider the evolution of the function :The situation is the state indexed with time in order to consider the evolution of the function : T=(FTC 1, FTC 2, FTC 3, PC 4, PC 5, PC 6 ) Working with situations instead of state is necessary to measure the evolve in time of the states functions

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Other methods Analyse des correspondances/analyse harmonique Analyse des correspondances/analyse harmonique Euclidean metric ² defined simultaneously the distances between situations and trajectories but regardless of the short and long term notion (AC)Euclidean metric ² defined simultaneously the distances between situations and trajectories but regardless of the short and long term notion (AC) Correlation between situations defines the main paths but the order of the data is not consideredCorrelation between situations defines the main paths but the order of the data is not considered A H introduces a differentiation long/short term but not thoroughlyA H introduces a differentiation long/short term but not thoroughly Optimal matching Optimal matching Matrix of dissimilarity between states prior to the trajectories distanceMatrix of dissimilarity between states prior to the trajectories distance -> hypothesis : the context is a parameter but is constant The metric between trajectories adds monthly elementary positions independently of paths or events (no correlation in time)The metric between trajectories adds monthly elementary positions independently of paths or events (no correlation in time) Models of transitions Models of transitions Focusing on pathsFocusing on paths The most general exclude individuals : basic Makovian model (school)The most general exclude individuals : basic Makovian model (school) Allow to measure the evolution of the global/individual contextAllow to measure the evolution of the global/individual context Define theoretical trajectoriesDefine theoretical trajectories Allow to consider 1, several, all steps possibly with a weighing of the stepsAllow to consider 1, several, all steps possibly with a weighing of the steps

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S1=FTC 12 S2=T 14 S1=FTC 12 S2=T 14 S=PC 24 ( 12, 24 )* s1 s ( 14, 24 )* s2 s ( 12, 14 )* s1 s2 ( 14, 14 )* s1 s2 ( 14, 12 )* s2 s1 ( 12, 12 )* s1 s1 S1=FTC 12 S2=T 14 S1=FTC 12 S2=T 14 S=PC 24 Metric between situations The situations are the states indexed by the months. The situations are the states indexed by the months. situations are not compared from direct paths situations are not compared from direct paths But from their profile of paths towards future situations. But from their profile of paths towards future situations. Weighing the steps : the shorter term the heavier. Weighing the steps : the shorter term the heavier. Distance between the situations is the 2 between their profiles of paths towards the future (P S S ). Distance between the situations is the 2 between their profiles of paths towards the future (P S S ). S1=FTC 12 S2=T 14 S1=FTC 12 S2=T 14 S=PC 24

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Structure between situations and evolution of the job market Once the distance between the situations is given, one can define the inertia of the situations space, the matrix of correlations and principal components (Torgerson) : Once the distance between the situations is given, one can define the inertia of the situations space, the matrix of correlations and principal components (Torgerson) : Principal components=principal events -> main paths Matrix of correlations integrates perfectly the dynamic of time. Matrix of correlations integrates perfectly the dynamic of time.

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Distance between trajectories Metric between trajectories is deduced from metric between situations. Technically : Technically : Projecting trajectories on the principal events.Projecting trajectories on the principal events. Applying Euclidean distance to the new encoded trajectories.Applying Euclidean distance to the new encoded trajectories. In practice : In practice : All distances are self computed.All distances are self computed. Possibilities of using any Euclidean algorithm (clustering : Ward, k- means, SOM, linear analysis of distances, etc.)Possibilities of using any Euclidean algorithm (clustering : Ward, k- means, SOM, linear analysis of distances, etc.)

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The typology with k-means

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The typology of the careers with SOM SOM organizes clusters referring to the proximity in the data space on a map SOM organizes clusters referring to the proximity in the data space on a map Units graphics displays : the states distributions plots characterize classes. Units graphics displays : the states distributions plots characterize classes. Neighbor classes have similar state distributions.Neighbor classes have similar state distributions. Proximity shows continuity in time.Proximity shows continuity in time. Cartography of working careers paths A B C D E F G H I J 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

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Two levels of grouping The macro-class grouping (8 clusters) aggregates the micro- classes (100 clusters) referring to the centroïds distance. Loss of permanent Permanent Towards Permanent Out of permanent micro-class grouping in macro-classes

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Career paths and individuals characteristics Cartography of ethnic origin Cartography du diploma Cartography of social origin Cartography of gender + Women - High level of diploma - Father executive + Foreign origin

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Zoom on a path : fixed term-> permanent contract Column J shows the timing of the path fixed term->permanent contract Column J shows the timing of the path fixed term->permanent contract A B C D E F G H I J 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

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C- Path fixed term->permanent M 85 Jan-00Jun-00Nov-00Jul-01Jan-02Sep-02Jun-03 NB398288285163173243248 Delay.558689 Flux.57.65720.42930.427.5 M85=jan-00 J1 J2 J3 J4 J5 J6 J7

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Perspectives Complementarities with the drifted Markov model Complementarities with the drifted Markov model Two approaches of the context : global/individualTwo approaches of the context : global/individual Taking into account the context evolutionTaking into account the context evolution Through the same object : paths and transitionsThrough the same object : paths and transitions Perspective Perspective Trajectories initial training || insertionTrajectories initial training || insertion DiscriminationDiscrimination Secure/insecure trajectories and working environmentSecure/insecure trajectories and working environment Complete professional careersComplete professional careers Missing valuesMissing values

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Typology of career paths : the insertion period

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Description des trajectoires Transitions et calendrier La déclaration des individus est un récit dévènements datés en termes de transitions et de périodes de stabilité. La déclaration des individus est un récit dévènements datés en termes de transitions et de périodes de stabilité. Dont le calendrier est un recodage arbitraire : Dont le calendrier est un recodage arbitraire : De la définition des 9 étatsDe la définition des 9 états Des états hétérogènes : CDI=CDI+Fonctionnaire+indépendant. Des états hétérogènes : CDI=CDI+Fonctionnaire+indépendant. Dont lhétérogénéité varie dans le temps : avec les proportion et la législation (les contrats aidés, SN). Dont lhétérogénéité varie dans le temps : avec les proportion et la législation (les contrats aidés, SN). De la temporalitéDe la temporalité Le temps est découpé en séquences identiques, ici le mois. La formation initiale est, elle, découpée en cycles La formation initiale est, elle, découpée en cycles Donne du poids à la stabilité dans les classifications Donne du poids à la stabilité dans les classifications Dans le but duniformiser la source et les résultats : Contrainte : structure adaptée à tous les algorithmes. Contrainte : structure adaptée à tous les algorithmes. Le niveau de nomenclature doit-il être introduit en amont du processus danalyse? Le niveau de nomenclature doit-il être introduit en amont du processus danalyse?

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Données manquantes – Censure - Attrition Il y a deux stratégies : Il y a deux stratégies : La dynamique temporelle de lindividu.La dynamique temporelle de lindividu. La comparaison avec les autres.La comparaison avec les autres. Ici, les deux sont réunis : Ici, les deux sont réunis : Projection des situations sur les évènements principaux qui, eux, recouvrent toute la période.Projection des situations sur les évènements principaux qui, eux, recouvrent toute la période. Transitions mesurées à partir des données renseignées.Transitions mesurées à partir des données renseignées. Evolution des corrélations au « CDI en juil2005 » pour : =1/(1+0.3*t) et =1/(1+t)

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