1. Newcastle Learning Challenge Data analysis November 2014 Newcastle City Council

2. The Newcastle Learning Challenge steering group has been asked to make recommendations about how the attainment gap that exists in the city between disadvantaged children and their peers can be narrowed, so that all young people have the chance to fulfil their potential and the number of young people not in education, employment or training is reduced.

3. This document explores the ‘attainment gap’ through a series of questions which aim to help the steering group to understand the nature of the attainment gap in Newcastle, explore underlying factors and compare Newcastle’s situation with that of comparator areas. We ask: Is there a problem with the quality of Newcastle schools? Learning Challenges in other areas have been driven by concerns about the overall quality of education in those areas. Is this an underlying issue in Newcastle? Is there a problem with under-attainment across the board in Newcastle? How does Newcastle’s attainment compare to that of other areas? Is under-attainment in general an underlying issue in Newcastle? Is there a problem with under-attainment amongst disadvantaged pupils in Newcastle? What is the scale of the gap in Newcastle compared to other areas? Does Newcastle have a greater problem with under-attainment amongst disadvantaged pupils and if so, at what stage? What is the value added by Newcastle secondary schools to disadvantaged pupils? Are disadvantaged pupils achieving expected progress in secondary school based on their attainment on entry or is attainment ‘falling off’ between Key Stage 2 and Key Stage 4? What do we know about pupil premium eligible pupils in Newcastle and what do we know about those who do not achieve 5 good GCSEs at Key Stage 4 including English and maths? What do we know about the characteristics of disadvantaged pupils and particularly those pupils who do not attain the expected level at Key Stage 4? What would it take to close the attainment gap in Newcastle and can it be done? Can we quantify the change that would be required to close the attainment gap and are there schools elsewhere where similar cohorts of pupils are getting better outcomes?

4. Note 2014 data has been used in this data pack where it is available for the headline measures. In some cases this is provisional data published by the Department for Education and is subject to change. Where comprehensive comparative data has not yet been published for 2014 we have used data from 2013 in order to make comparisons between Newcastle and other areas.

5. Context 58,385 0-18 year olds live in Newcastle (2011 census) 36,904 children of compulsory school age attend Newcastle state-funded schools 21% of those children have one or more special educational needs 26% are from black and minority ethnic backgrounds, and the proportion has increased over time 21% speak English as an additional language 35% of Newcastle children live in the 10% most deprived areas nationally 50% live in the 20% most deprived areas nationally 60% live in the 30% most deprived areas nationally

6. Is there a problem with the quality of Newcastle schools? Newcastle primary schools’ Ofsted judgements Newcastle secondary schools’ Ofsted judgements The headline measure used by Ofsted in school inspections is “overall effectiveness”. According to Ofsted, Newcastle schools perform very strongly. In Ofsted’s latest statistics, 94.4% of Newcastle’s primary schools were judged to be ‘good’ or ‘outstanding’ by Ofsted. This is higher than the average for England (81.0%), the North East (89.8%), the Core Cities (81.3%) and our Statistical Neighbours (83.6%). It places Newcastle in the top 10 performing local authority areas in England. Newcastle’s secondary schools also perform strongly in terms of Ofsted judgements. 78.6%* of Newcastle secondary schools were rated ‘good’ or ‘outstanding’, which is above the England average (70.7%), the North East average (66.7%), Core Cities average (67.4%) and the average for our Statistical Neighbours (66.9%). All of Newcastle’s special schools are rated ‘good’ or ‘outstanding’. So, based on Ofsted judgements, there is no evidence of a problem with the overall quality of Newcastle schools. However Ofsted also acknowledge that although good and outstanding schools achieve better outcomes for their pupils overall, they do not demonstrate a greater ability to close attainment gaps within the school. This is most apparent at Key Stage 4. * This figure will rise to 84.6% due to the closure of All Saints College in August 2014

7. Is there a problem with under-attainment across the board in Newcastle? At Key Stage 2 the national expectation is that children achieve level 4 or above in reading, writing and maths. In 2014, 78% of children in Newcastle achieved this level. The performance of Newcastle pupils is only slightly below the national average (79%) and slightly above that of our statistical neighbours (76.9%). In terms of expected progress between Key Stage 1 and Key Stage 2, Newcastle pupils performed slightly better than the England average and the same or slightly better than statistical neighbour averages in all three areas of reading, writing and maths. This suggests that at Key Stage 2 there is not a problem with under-attainment for all pupils in Newcastle.

8. Is there a problem with under-attainment across the board in Newcastle? At Key Stage 4, the national expectation is that children achieve 5 or more A*-C grades at GCSE including English and maths. In 2014, provisional data shows that 56.3% of children in Newcastle achieved the expected level. For the first time this is slightly higher than the average for England state schools (55.9%). It is also higher than the average for statistical neighbours (51.7%). This is consistent with a considerable narrowing of the gap between Newcastle and other areas in recent years, as illustrated in the first chart opposite. If we consider whether children achieved expected progress between Key Stage 2 and Key Stage 4, we see that in 2014, 70.7% of children in Newcastle achieved the expected progress in English. This compares to an England average of 71% and 68.1% for our statistical neighbours. In maths, 65.4% of Newcastle pupils achieve the expected level of progress. This is higher than our statistical neighbours (58.4%) and equal to the England average. Again, the gap between Newcastle and the national average has narrowed in recent years, as illustrated in the second and third charts opposite. This suggests there is not a significant problem with under-attainment at Key Stage 4 in Newcastle compared to other areas.

9. Is there a problem with under-attainment amongst disadvantaged pupils in Newcastle? At Key Stage 2 in 2013, 81% of Newcastle pupils not eligible for pupil premium achieved the national expectation, compared to 63% of pupils who are eligible for pupil premium. That’s an attainment gap of 18 percentage points. This is similar to the national average gap and the average gap for our statistical neighbours (both 19 percentage points). At Key Stage 4 in 2013, 625 children in Newcastle eligible for pupil premium did not achieve the national expectation. Whilst 70.5% of non-eligible pupils achieved the expected level at Key Stage 4, almost 36.5% of pupil-premium eligible pupils achieve the expected level. This is an attainment gap of 34 percentage points. The gap in Newcastle was also above 30 percentage points in previous years. The gap in Newcastle in 2013 was greater than the national gap (26.9 percentage points) and the gap for our statistical neighbours (29.5 percentage points). The charts opposite illustrate this. So an attainment gap between disadvantaged pupils and their peers exists at Key Stage 2 and widens at Key Stage 4. At Key Stage 4 the gap in Newcastle is greater than national and statistical neighbour gaps.

10. What is the value added by Newcastle secondary schools to disadvantaged pupils? We can look at the ‘value added’ by a school by measuring the distance travelled by pupils by the end of Key Stage 4, against a national average for pupils with the same prior attainment on entry to the school. A school has added value where the distance travelled by the child between Key Stage 2 and Key Stage 4 is greater than the national average. Where a marker sits wholly above or below the line, this suggest the value added by the school is either significantly above or below the national average. If any part of the symbol crosses the line, the performance is broadly in line with the average. In general, Newcastle secondary schools are making the national average progress for all pupils and also for pupil premium pupils. Some Newcastle schools are performing significantly better than the national average for all children (1000, top chart) and for pupil premium eligible children (983.5, bottom chart). Each marker represents a different Newcastle school National average for all pupils National average for PP eligible pupils

11. What do we know about pupil premium eligible pupils in Newcastle? In Newcastle, secondary schools with a high proportion of pupil premium eligible pupils also tend to have a high proportion of pupils entering the school with low prior attainment. This is shown in the charts opposite. In 2013, around 51.7% (323) of those who didn’t attain the expectation at Key Stage 4 were boys, roughly the same as the percentage of boys in the entire year 11 cohort (51.8%). This suggests gender is not a significant factor. Around 87% were white British. This was a higher proportion than for the entire year 11 cohort, where 84% of children with a known ethnic group were white British. Of the 625 pupil premium eligible children who didn’t attain the expected level in 2013, 214 had special educational needs*. *This includes School Action Plus and Children with a Statement of SEN.

12. What do we know about pupil premium eligible pupils who do not attain at Key Stage 4? Over half of the children who didn’t achieve the expectation live in Byker, Walker, Blakelaw, Benwell and Scotswood, Elswick and Fawdon. This is shown in the first chart opposite. The second chart shows that 367 children (around 59% ) live in the 10% most deprived areas nationally and 530 children (almost 85%) live in the 30% most deprived areas nationally (based on Index of Multiple Deprivation bands). The final chart shows that pupil premium eligible pupils living in the most deprived areas are less likely to attain the expected level than pupil premium eligible pupils living in the least deprived areas.

13. What do we know about pupil premium eligible pupils who do not attain at Key Stage 4? Children eligible for pupil premium consistently have more school absence than average for their year group across every year group. Pupils eligible for pupil premium who did not meet the national expectation had consistently higher absence rates than the average for all pupil premium-eligible pupils in their year group. They also had significantly higher rates than both the average for all pupils in their year group and the respective phase averages (primary and secondary) across the city. The first chart shows absence rates for pupils eligible for pupil premium for each year group for the academic years 2011/12 and 2012/13 compared to the average absence rate. The highest rates of absence are in years 10 and 11 (Key Stage 4). Attainment gaps in Newcastle schools range from 19 to 37 percentage points. Even in those schools where pupils eligible for pupil premium attain above the national average for all pupils, gaps are between 23 and 27 percentage points.

14. What would it take to close the attainment gap in Newcastle and can it be done? Based on 2013 data, for Newcastle to close the gap to the national average 69 additional pupil premium eligible children in the city would need to attain the expected level of progress at Key Stage 4. That’s another 7 pupil premium eligible pupils in every 100. Of the 625 pupil premium eligible children who didn’t attain the threshold of 5 A*-C GCSEs including English and maths, 439 did achieve at least 5 A*-C GCSEs (but not English and/or maths). Of this 439, 62 achieved English at grade A*-C but not maths, and 14 achieved maths at grade A*-C but not English. If these 76 pupils had achieved both English and maths, the attainment gap in Newcastle would be narrower than the national average. There are local authorities elsewhere in the country, with similar cohorts of children to Newcastle (in terms of disadvantage and prior attainment), where a greater proportion of pupil premium eligible pupils are achieving the expected level at Key Stage 4. This is illustrated in the scatter graph opposite. This suggests that it is possible, with a similar cohort of children, to achieve better outcomes for disadvantaged children. The same applies at school level: for each Newcastle school there are schools elsewhere in the country with a similar cohort but a greater proportion of disadvantaged children attaining the expected level at Key Stage 4.

15. Summary There is no evidence, on the basis of Ofsted judgements, of a problem with the overall effectiveness of Newcastle schools. Newcastle schools perform above the national average and the average for other comparator groups. There is no evidence of a general problem with under-attainment in Newcastle schools. Newcastle’s attainment is broadly in line with the national average at Key Stage 2. At Key Stage 4 the gap to the national average has narrowed consistently over time and Newcastle is provisionally above the national average this year. An attainment gap between pupil premium eligible pupils and their peers exists across the country. At Key Stage 2 the gap in Newcastle is similar to the national average. At Key Stage 4 the national gap has widened. In Newcastle the gap has also widened, but to a greater extent, so the gap in Newcastle at Key Stage 4 is greater than the national average. In Newcastle, pupil premium eligible pupils who don’t attain the expected level are more likely to live in the most deprived parts of the city. White British children are slightly over-represented amongst those who don’t attain and just over a third of those who don’t attain have special educational needs. Pupil premium eligible pupils who don’t attain the expected level also have much higher absence rates from school than other pupils. In general, Newcastle secondary schools are making the national average progress for all pupils and also for pupil premium pupils. Some Newcastle schools are performing significantly better than the national average for all children and for pupil premium eligible children. If Newcastle were to close the attainment gap to the national average, around 7 additional pupil premium eligible pupils in every 100 would need to attain the expected level at Key Stage 4. 70 per cent of the pupil premium eligible pupils who didn’t achieve 5 A*- C GCSEs including English and Maths, did achieve 5 A*- C GCSEs. There are local authorities elsewhere in the country, with similar cohorts of children to Newcastle (in terms of disadvantage and prior attainment), where a greater proportion of pupil premium eligible pupils achieved the expected level at Key Stage 4 in 2013.

16. Glossary Core Cities – England’s eight largest city economies outside London. The core cities are Newcastle, Leeds, Manchester, Liverpool, Sheffield, Nottingham, Bristol, Birmingham. Glasgow and Cardiff are now also part of the Core Cities group but are not included in Ofsted data which only applies to England. Key Stage 2 – this applies to primary school children aged 7–11. Attainment is assessed at the end of the Key Stage. Key Stage 4 – this applies to secondary school children aged 14-16. Attainment is assessed at the end of the Key Stage. Pupil premium eligible - the pupil premium is paid for pupils who meet the criteria for disadvantage. Eligibility for free school meals (at any point in the last 6 years) is the main measure used. Looked after children are also eligible. Statistical Neighbours – Local authority areas which share similar characteristics to Newcastle. Our statistical neighbours are Sheffield, Leeds, Liverpool, South Tyneside, Rochdale, Salford, Middlesbrough, Sunderland, Gateshead and Darlington.