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Mark Svoboda, Climatologist National Drought Mitigation Center School of Natural Resources University of Nebraska-Lincoln What is the Drought Monitor?

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Presentation on theme: "Mark Svoboda, Climatologist National Drought Mitigation Center School of Natural Resources University of Nebraska-Lincoln What is the Drought Monitor?"— Presentation transcript:

1 Mark Svoboda, Climatologist National Drought Mitigation Center School of Natural Resources University of Nebraska-Lincoln What is the Drought Monitor? Past/Present/Future Drought Monitor Forum Portland, OR October 10-11, 2007

2 Paraphrasing Forrest Gump on drought: “My mamma always said drought was like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re gonna get.”

3 Evolution……………… 1997: WDCC MAP WCWS 1998: NDMC Drought Monitoring product

4 1999:The U.S. Drought Monitor Since 1999, NOAA (CPC and NCDC), USDA, and the NDMC have produced a weekly composite drought map -- the U.S. Drought Monitor -- with input from numerous federal and non-federal agencies

5 Approaches to Drought Assessment Single index or Indicator (parameter) Multiple indices or Indicators Composite Indicator

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7 A consolidation of indices and indicators into one comprehensive national drought map Trying to capture these characteristics: the drought’s magnitude (duration + intensity) spatial extent probability of occurrence Impacts Rates drought intensity by percentile ranks The Drought Monitor Concept

8 Original Objectives “Fujita-like” scale NOT a forecast! NOT a drought declaration! Identify impacts (A, H) Assessment of current conditions Incorporate local expert input Be as objective as possible

9 U.S. Drought Monitor Map Drought Intensity Categories D0 Abnormally Dry (30 %tile) D1 Drought – Moderate (20 %tile) D2 Drought – Severe (10 %tile) D3 Drought – Extreme (5 %tile) D4 Drought – Exceptional (2 %tile)

10 U.S. Drought Monitor Integrates Key Drought Indicators: - Palmer Drought Index - SPI - KBDI - Modeled Soil Moisture - 7-Day Avg. Streamflow - Precipitation Anomalies Growing Season: - Crop Moisture Index - Sat. Veg. Health Index - Soil Moisture - Mesonet data In The West: - SWSI - Reservoir levels - Snowpack - Streamflow Created in ArcGIS

11 Objective Blends  Short-Term Blend 35% Palmer Z Index 25% 3-Month Precip. 20% 1-Month Precip. 13% CPC Soil Model 7% Palmer Drought Index

12 Objective Blends  Long-Term Blend 25% Palmer Hydrological Index 20% 24-Month Precip. 20% 12-Month Precip. 15% 6-Month Precip. 10% 60-Month Precip. 10% CPC Soil Model

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16 Reservoir Storage Cle Elum Reservoir Vs 1950-2003 200420052006 Historical Percentiles Current Storage

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23 The Importance of Local Expert Input The U.S. Drought Monitor Team Relies on Field Observation Feedback from the Local Experts for Impacts Information & “Ground Truth” –Listserver (250 Participants: 2/3 Federal, 1/3 State/Univ.) Local NWS & USDA/NRCS Offices State Climate Offices State Drought Task Forces Regional Climate Centers

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25 USDM Listserve Participants (as of July 2007)

26 drought.unl.edu/dm

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29 Moving toward state-level trend analysis capabilities (left) and providing more county-level drought assessment information (right).

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33 NDMC has gone mobile! http://drought.unl.edu/mobile

34 Any Questions? Enhancing near real-time delivery of drought information: “Rapid Response”

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36 Any Questions? Please contact me at: Mark Svoboda National Drought Mitigation Center 402-472-8238 msvoboda2@unl.edu Thank You Any Questions ?

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