1. HERWG Housing Early Recovery Working Group Updated Gap Analysis July 2011.

2. 2 Calculation Table HERWG Gap Analysis April 2011 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad 13.07.2011 HOUSING EARLY RECOVERY WORKING GROUP - CALCULATION OF STRATEGIC GAP IN THE HOUSING SECTOR Line DefinitionCalcul.UnitPAKG+BBalochistanKPKPunjabSindhTotal 1 Affected districts 3 + 9916 2 Destroyed houses (PDMA) Houses1462141559,484116,866301,211346,942827,380 3 Ongoing Self Recovery by own resources = Not requiring assistance % of 2% 0%20%15%6%11% 4 L2*L3Houses 023,37345,18220,81789,371 146214155948493493256029326125675,648 5 Committed Transitional Shelters (constructed or committed) TS2001,75214,52327,8147,07812,33863,705 6 Committed One Room Shelters (constructed + planned) Sh.Cluster dataORS122892024,22226,30959,04266,491178,212 7 UpdatedORS122892024,22221,86159,04266,491173,764 Committed registered TS + ORS 1,4282,67238,74549,67566,12078,829237,469 8 Additional: Not registered response in % L6% 8%20%15% 13% 9 ORS 1,9384,3728,8569,97423,202 10 Estimated coverage SUM (5:9)ORS1,4282,67240,68377,420120,158109,619351,980 11 L10 / L2%98%189%68%66%40%32%43% 12 Total estimated gap L2 -L10ORS0018,80139,446181,053237,323476,623 13 L10 / L 2%0% 32%34%60%68%56% 32%42%71%73%71% 14 Prevailing materials mud, adobe, bricks mud, adobe, bricks, stones mud, adobe, bricks lohkat, mud, adobe, bricks 15 Seismic Zone of affected districtsPK Bldg Code 2B + 3 2A 16 Construction type same levelConstr. Option M 1M2M1 17 Construction type improved levelConstr. Option B.2.1B 2.2B 1.1 18 Calculated costs same shelter type PKR 65,00075,00060,00052,000 19 Calculated costs improved shelter type PKR 92,000103,00082,00065,000 20 Percentage response same type % 25% 21 Percentage response improved type % 75% 22 Calculated costs w/out participat. $ 18,856,53844,550,325162,947,745172,408,056398,762,663 Calculation of costs with participation 23 Extremely vulnerable: 15%, no particip. $ 2,156,6135,220,74119,170,32321,777,86046,168,924 24 Same type of shelter: participation 35% $ 1,985,8814,807,43317,652,67220,053,77942,513,884 25 Improved type of shelter: participation 50% $ 6,486,42815,235,86355,673,81357,847,440128,757,116 26 Calculated costs with participation $ 10,628,92225,264,03792,496,80899,679,079217,439,924 27 % of reduction by participation % 44%43% 42%45% 28 Likely inflation of material market prices % 35% 37% 29 L24*L26$ 3,720,1238,842,41332,373,88334,887,67879,824,096 30 Estimated effective construction costsL24+L27$ 14,349,04434,106,450124,870,691134,566,756307,892,941 31 Implementation costs (7% for technical supervision, 5% for administration, 7% agncy overhead costs) 19% * L34 2,726,3186,480,22523,725,43125,567,68458,499,659 32 Gran Total Strategic Gap Houing Sector $ 17,075,36340,586,675148,596,122160,134,440366,392,600 33 Strategic Gap per Province in % of Total Strategic Gap Costs % 10.66%11.08%40.56%43.71%100.00% 34 Construction + Implementation per One Room Shelter L36/L10$ 9081,029821675769 Line DefinitionCalcul.UnitPAKG+BBalochistanKPKPunjabSindhTotal

3. 3 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS 1.Strategy 2.Village Profiles 3.Destroyed Houses 4.Self Recovery 5.Assisted Response 6.Gap in Shelter Sector 7.Cost estimation 8.Priorities 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad 13.07.2011

4. 4 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS Earl Recovery Strategy (unchanged) Response to completely destroyed houses Early Recovery: 1 ORS against 1 CDH Approx. 20-25m2 core ORS, extendable Technical Guidelines to comply with DRR Transitional Shelters not promoted anymore Promotion of integrated approach (WASH) Collaborate w/ provincial + district authorities 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad 13.07.2011

5. 5 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS Village Profiles (UN-HABITAT) Standard profile forms for over 300 villages Flood affected / migrated families Emergency Relief: families assisted w. NFI, tents Houses: All; Damaged: partially / completely Relation: Partially / completely / not damaged h. Self Recovery: completed + ongoing Extremely vulnerable 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad 13.07.2011

6. 6 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad 13.07.2011 Damaged Houses Not damaged in % of damaged Self Recovery: % of CDH Province CompletelyPartially Village Profiles Gap Analysis KPK 33%67%303% 75%55% Balochistan 93%7%3% 27%5% Punjab 79%21%19% 35%25% Sindh 71%29%12% 10%15%

7. 7 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad 13.07.2011

8. 8 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad 13.07.2011 Provinces TypeKPKBalochistanPunjabSindh 4 Provinces Completely116,135 152,959 269,094 Partially164,494 344,741 509,235 Total280,62975,596497,700876,249 1,730,174 TypeKPKBalochistanPunjabSindh 4 Provinces Completely41%80%31%66% Partially59%20%69%33% Total100% TypeKPKBalochistanPunjabSindh 4 Provinces Completely116,13560,477152,959578,324 907,895 Partially164,49415,119344,741289,162 813,516 Total280,62975,596497,700867,487 1,721,412

9. 9 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad 13.07.2011

10. 10 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad 13.07.2011 Self Recovery Duration of flood Local resources Village Profiles Remarks Gap analysis KPKshortmedium75%monitored55% Balochistanmediumvery few27%doubteful5% Punjabmediumfew35% in Pakka areas, but not in katcha areas 25% Sindhlongmedium10% profiles = observation, expected to rise 15%

11. 11 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS Assisted Response (HERWG) Transitional Shelters: data from Shelter Cluster Registered One Room Shelters: 144’289 ORS (Updated per end June, refer to district list) Not yet registered ORS (refer to DFP) KPK and Punjab: 20%, Sindh: 15%, Balochistan 5% Other actors and forms of support KPK and Punjab: 20%, Sindh: 10%, Balochistan 5% 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad 13.07.2011

12. 12 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad 13.07.2011

13. 13 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad 13.07.2011

14. 14 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS Updated Gap Analysis (July 2011) Assisted Response: total figures: only little change Actualized Baseline (CDH): Punjab 2/3 less, Sindh 1/3 more Self Recovery: KPK strong, Punjab: medium, Sindh + B: low CDH in AJK, Gilgit-Baltistan and Kyber Pakht.: covered Gap: Balochistan 5%; Punjab 9%, Sindh 85%! Priorities: a) Balochistan (Jaffarabad) b) Flood prone areas = katcha areas in Bal., Punjab, Sindh 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad 13.07.2011

15. 15 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS Costing (on base of UN-HABITAT shelter types) Only 25% improved rehabilitation w/ same materials DRR Improved mud/adobe constructions: 45 – 60’000 Rps Fired brick constructions: 80’000 (Sindh) – 100’000 (B. + P.) 15% extremely vulnerable receive all material and labor 85% of beneficiaries participate (salv.+new mat, unsk. labor) Reduction: Balochistan: 25%, Sindh: 40%, Punjab: 45% 16% tax on bricks included, 25% further price hike included Plus 19%: 7% for technical, 5% for admin, 7% for agency 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad 13.07.2011

16. 16 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad 13.07.2011

17. 17 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad 13.07.2011

18. 18 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad 13.07.2011

19. 19 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS SUMMARY 1.Fewer guesses thanks to village profiles 2.CDH-Base: P down, S up, sum unchanged 3.Self Recovery: short = high, long = low, 4.Registered + not yet + other actors 5.AJK, Gilgit, Kyber Pakhtunkha: no gap 6.Cost estimation: with latrines = 1’000 $ 7.Priorities: Flood prone areas and Sindh! 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad 13.07.2011

20. 20 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad 13.07.2011