1. Biofuel and the Environment: Opportunities and Risks Joe Fargione The Nature Conservancy

2. Outline Corn ethanol trends and impacts Future biofuels potential impacts International trade Policies to protect environment

3. Year Billions of gallons Source: Renewable Fuels Association

4. Proposed Legislation Year Billions of gallons Current Capacity 15 billion gallons

5. Corn used for fuel alcohol Sources: National Corn Growers Association USDA Economic Research Service Year Millions of acres

6. Proposed corn acres for fuel alcohol Year Millions of acres 36 million acres needed to meet 15 billion gallon mandate

7. Proposed corn acres for fuel alcohol Year Millions of acres 13 million more acres than 2007

8. Environmental Impacts of Corn 1. Habitat Loss

9. Estimated Henslow’s Sparrow Population

10. CRP Authorized

11. 2. Soil Erosion

12. 3. Water Use ~4 gallons of water for every gallon of ethanol Even more water used in irrigating corn 15% of corn is irrigated

13. 4. Freshwater Sediment Nutrients Pesticides Loss of fish habitat

15. 5. Groundwater

16. How much grassland will be converted to corn?

17. Where is all the new land for corn coming from? 1. Other crops Year Millions of acres

18. Where is all the new land for corn coming from? 2. Grassland 21% decrease in CRP enrollment so far this year compared to last year - USDA has no “open enrolment” for CRP this year, to help meet demand for corn

19. At current CRP payments - 61% of CRP will be cropped at $4.00 corn -54% of CRP will be cropped at $3.33 corn Iowa study: acreage out of CRP as a function of corn prices Secchi & Babcock In prep

20. FSA data shows 400,000+ acres of “newly broken" land in the Dakotas and Montana from 2002-2006

21. Summary: Corn ethanol trends Ethanol production is causing the conversion of grassland to corn 6-13 million acres of more corn to produce 12-15 billion gallons Millions of acres of grassland converted

22. Summary: Corn ethanol impacts 1.Habitat Loss 2.Soil Erosion 3.Water Use 4.Freshwater Habitat 5.Groundwater

23. How to address this threat? Stabilize or reduce corn demand Biofuels certification would ensure –Land not converted from natural habitat –Provides real carbon emission reduction

24. Future of biofuels

25. Proposed Legislation Year Billions of gallons 21 15

26. How much land for 21 billion gallons of “advanced biofuels”?

27. 50 million acres of switchgrass Based on: Current rates of ethanol conversion 7 tons/acre Future: Switchgrass?

28. 25 million acres of Miscanthus giganteaus Asian grass Yields twice switchgrass Future: Monocultures of Exotic Cultivars?

29. Alternative future: Low-Input High-Diversity Prairie

30. The Cedar Creek Biodiversity Experiment 168 Plots – Each 9 m x 9 m Random Compositions of 1, 2, 4, 8, or 16 Species

31. High Diversity Grasslands Produced 238% More Biofuel Each Year Than Monocultures Switchgrass

32. Is prairie biomass harvest compatible with wildlife?

33. YES. Here is how: Perennial Native Diverse Local ecotype One harvest after frost (well outside of primary nesting season) Leave refugia for winter cover Low fertilizer & pesticide input

34. Policy for Low-Input High-Diversity Prairie Has value both for biomass production and wildlife But may have lower yields than some cultivars with poor wildlife value (Miscanthus) Market payment + conservation payment needed to encourage this land use

35. International Trade

36. Where is all the new land for corn coming from? 1. Other crops Year Millions of acres

38. Converting natural lands to biofuels is bad for global warming Carbon Debt 810 Habitat Amazon Offset (yr) 0.9 Years to repay 1006 Tons CO2 per ha Crop Soy

39. Converting natural lands to biofuels is bad for global warming Carbon Debt 810 130 Habitat Amazon Great Plains Offset (yr) 0.9 1.2 Years to repay 1006 107 Tons CO2 per ha Crop Soy Corn

40. Converting natural lands to biofuels is bad for global warming Carbon Debt 810 130 0 Habitat Amazon Great Plains Offset (yr) 0.9 1.2 10 Years to repay 1006 107 0 Tons CO2 per ha Crop Soy Corn Perennial (diverse native)

41. How to address this threat? Biofuels certification would ensure –Land not converted from natural habitat –Provides real carbon emission reduction Could protect U.S. producers from cheap imports of environmentally unsound foreign biofuel

42. Conclusions Converting grasslands to corn hurts wildlife Converting grassland to monocultures (especially of exotic species) hurts wildlife Diverse native perennials can be harvested for biomass Habitat conversion releases more CO2 than is saved by biofuels

43. Policy Implications Maintain & increase conservation payments in farm bill Biofuels certification Conservation payments for diverse native perennials for biomass production Biofuels from waste streams (not land- based)

44. Final thought Only 12% of transportation fuel would be replaced, even if all corn and soybeans in U.S. were used as fuel An improved electric car battery would more strongly reduce our dependence on foreign oil Easier and more efficient to turn biomass to electricity than liquid transportation fuel