© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Research Forecast Report The emerging Asia–Pacific.

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Research Forecast Report The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 June 2013 Tom Mowat and Satvik Singhania

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Contents [1] 8.About this report 9.Executive summary 10.Mobile data will be the main driver of telecoms revenue growth in emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms markets from 2013 to 2018 11.Mobile penetration is higher than 100% in two emerging Asia–Pacific markets, and penetration across the whole region will reach 100% by 2018 12.The voice market in emerging Asia–Pacific markets is increasingly mobile-dominated, and will become even more so during the forecast period 13.Broadband services in emerging Asia–Pacific will become more diverse, as wireless technologies reach new areas and fibre is rolled out in cities 14.Key findings and implications 15.Key findings and implications 16.Market definition and methodology 17.Geographical coverage: emerging Asia–Pacific 18.Forecasting methodology: our comprehensive telecoms forecast model is supported by a sound knowledge of markets 19.Forecasting methodology: we base our forecasts on reported metrics, and insight into market and competitive dynamics 20.Key forecast assumptions: emerging Asia–Pacific [1] 21.Key forecast assumptions: emerging Asia–Pacific [2] 22.Data series definitions: mobile 23.Data series definitions: fixed 24.Emerging Asia–Pacific forecast 25.Market context: seven countries in emerging Asia–Pacific account for 87% of the population of 3.73 billion and 90% of the telecoms retail revenue 26.Handset data services will be the main driver of telecoms revenue and connections growth in emerging Asia–Pacific markets from 2012 to 2018 27.The emerging Asia–Pacific region will have almost 4 billion active mobile SIMs by the end of 2018 28.Mobile penetration will reach 100% in the region during the forecast period, but most markets will continue to have significant growth potential 29.2G connections will peak in 2014, but will continue to be the dominant mobile technology in the region throughout the forecast period 30.Revenue in all areas of the mobile market will increase during the forecast period, but data services will outstrip voice 31.The regional decline in ARPU will continue, but at a reduced pace because spending on non-voice services will mitigate the multiple-SIM effect 32.The volume of mobile voice traffic will continue to grow throughout the region as new subscribers enter the market and prices fall 33.China dominates the fixed-line sector in emerging Asia–Pacific countries, and will drive growth in the number of fixed broadband connections 34.M2M will grow rapidly during the forecast period – China will dominate and revenue will continue to be a fraction of overall telecoms revenue Slide no. 2

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Contents [2] 35.Individual country forecasts 36.The telecoms market in Bangladesh will grow in almost all areas during 2013 and 2018, particularly in fixed and mobile data services 37.Mobile services in Bangladesh will have significant growth potential – 2G will continue to dominate throughout the period 38.Voice services will continue to account for the largest part of the mobile market, but non-voice services are increasing in importance 39.Bangladesh’s broadband sector has enormous potential for growth, and mobile will be the access technology of choice 40.The fixed market is inferior to the mobile market in Bangladesh, and fixed–wireless services will drive fixed broadband growth 41.Revenue in China’s telecoms market – the world’s largest in terms of subscribers – will grow at a 5.8% CAGR from 2013 to 2018 42.Mobile penetration in China will reach 104% by 2018, and customers will increasingly favour 3G and 4G services 43.Mobile revenue in China will reach CNY1.1 trillion (USD177 billion) by 2018, primarily driven by growth in handset data services 44.Smartphones account for one in three handsets in China and will continue to dominate the Internet market there by 2018 45.Fixed voice connections are in decline, but broadband continues to grow, driven by the increased availability of high-speed services 46.Revenue will increase in all areas of the Indian telecoms market except fixed voice, which is losing market share to mobile 47.India will have more than 1.1 billion active mobile subscribers by 2018, but 2G will dominate throughout the forecast period 48.India’s mobile retail revenue will increase to more than INR2 trillion in 2018, and revenue from all services will increase 49.India will have 369 million smartphones and 96 million broadband connections by 2018 50.The focus of the fixed-line market in India is rapidly shifting away from legacy voice services towards high-speed broadband 51.Data revenue will grow in Indonesia, but voice revenue will decline despite an increase in the number of connections 52.Mobile penetration will continue to grow rapidly in Indonesia, reaching 123% in 2018 and more than half of connections will be 3G 53.Growth in Indonesia’s mobile data revenue will more than compensate for declining mobile voice revenue 54.Mobile connections will continue to dominate Internet access in Indonesia, despite improved fixed broadband coverage 55.Broadband services in Indonesia will provide revenue growth for fixed networks, more than offsetting the decline in voice revenue 56.Voice services are near saturation in Malaysia, but mobile handset data still has significant growth potential 57.Mobile penetration is high in Malaysia, but it still has scope for growth, and 3G is becoming mainstream 58.Mobile revenue will continue to grow, because an increase in data usage will compensate for saturation in the voice market 59.Smartphones are already the most popular way to access the Internet in Malaysia Slide no. 3

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Contents [3] 60.Fixed voice has little prospect of growth, but fibre take-up is increasing rapidly in Malaysia 61.Mobile voice will continue to dominate the telecoms market in Pakistan, with delays to 3G auctions hindering the growth of data 62.Mobile penetration in Pakistan will continue its slow growth, but will reach 90% by 2018 63.All mobile revenue streams in Pakistan will increase throughout the forecast period 64.Pakistan’s Internet market is underdeveloped, but the introduction of 3G will increase the take-up of mobile data services 65.Fixed broadband connections will increase in Pakistan, but fixed voice will decline because of fixed–mobile substitution 66.Mobile data and broadband revenue and connections will grow in Thailand, as fixed voice services continue to decline 67.2G will be the dominant technology for mobile connections during the forecast period, continuing to account for half of all connections 68.Mobile voice revenue will be flat between 2012 and 2018, while handset data revenue will grow at a CAGR of more than 7% 69.The Thai government’s broadband plan and the availability of 3G services will increase broadband and smartphone penetration 70.Fixed broadband penetration will increase in Thailand, but fixed voice penetration will continue to decrease 71.About the authors and Analysys Mason 72.About the authors 73.About Analysys Mason 74.Research from Analysys Mason 75.Consulting from Analysys Mason Slide no. 4

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 List of figures [1] Figure 1: Reported KPIs and splits, emerging Asia–Pacific Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue by service category, emerging Asia– Pacific, 2009–2018 Figure 3: Active mobile SIM penetration by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2009–2018 Figure 4: Voice connections by type, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2009–2018 Figure 5: Broadband connections by type, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2009– 2018 Figure 6: Countries covered in this report Figure 7: Key factors influencing forecast assumptions Figure 8: Key metrics for historical and forecast data Figure 9: Metrics for the seven countries modelled individually in emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012 Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue by service category, emerging Asia– Pacific, 2009–2018 Figure 11: Growth rates of retail revenue by service type, emerging Asia– Pacific, 2009–2018 Figure 12: Connections by type and growth rates, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2009–2018 Figure 13: Active mobile SIMs by country and mobile penetration, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2009–2018 Figure 14: Active mobile SIM penetration by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2009–2018 Figure 15: Mobile connections by technology generation, and mobile penetration, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2009–2018 Figure 16: Mobile revenue by type and ASPU by type, emerging Asia– Pacific, 2009–2018 Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific‚ 2009–2018 Figure 18: Outgoing mobile voice minutes by country, emerging Asia– Pacific, 2009–2018 Figure 19: Fixed-line connections by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2009–2018 Figure 20: M2M connections by country and revenue as a share of telecoms retail revenue, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2009–2018 Figure 21: Retail revenue by service type, Bangladesh, 2009–2018 Figure 22: Growth rates of retail revenue by service type, Bangladesh, 2009–2018 Figure 23: Growth rates of connections by type, Bangladesh, 2009–2018 Figure 24: Mobile connections by generation, and mobile penetration, Bangladesh, 2009–2018 Figure 25: Mobile retail revenue by service type and ASPU, Bangladesh, 2009–2018 Figure 26: Broadband connections by type and mobile as a proportion of the broadband base, Bangladesh, 2009–2018 Figure 27: Fixed connections by type and fixed penetration, Bangladesh, 2009–2018 Figure 28: Fixed retail broadband revenue by technology and ARPU, Bangladesh, 2009–2018 Figure 29: Retail revenue by service type, China, 2009–2018 Figure 30: Growth rates of retail revenue by service type, China, 2009–2018 5

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 List of figures [2] Figure 31: Growth rates of connections by type, China, 2009–2018 Figure 32: Mobile connections by generation, and mobile penetration, China, 2009–2018 Figure 33: Mobile retail revenue by service type and ASPU, China, 2009– 2018 Figure 34: Broadband connections by type and mobile as a proportion of the broadband base, China, 2009–2018 Figure 35: Fixed connections by type, and voice and broadband penetration, China, 2009–2018 Figure 36: Fixed retail broadband revenue by technology and ARPU, China, 2009–2018 Figure 37: Retail revenue by service type, India, 2009–2018 Figure 38: Growth rates of retail revenue by service type, India, 2009–2018 Figure 39: Growth rates of connections by type, India, 2009–2018 Figure 40: Mobile connections by generation, and mobile penetration, India, 2009–2018 Figure 41: Mobile retail revenue by service type and ASPU, India, 2009– 2018 Figure 42: Broadband connections by type and mobile as a proportion of the broadband base, India, 2009–2018 Figure 43: Fixed connections by type, and voice and broadband penetration, India, 2009–2018 Figure 44: Fixed retail broadband revenue by technology and ARPU, India, 2009–2018 Figure 45: Retail revenue by service type, Indonesia, 2009–2018 Figure 46: Growth rates of retail revenue by service type, Indonesia, 2009– 2018 Figure 47: Growth rates of connections by type, Indonesia, 2009–2018 Figure 48: Handsets and mobile broadband connections by generation, and mobile penetration, Indonesia, 2009–2018 Figure 49: Mobile retail revenue by service type and ASPU, Indonesia, 2009–2018 Figure 50: Broadband connections by type and mobile as a proportion of the broadband base, Indonesia, 2009–2018 Figure 51: Fixed connections by type, and voice and broadband penetration, Indonesia, 2009–2018 Figure 52: Fixed retail broadband revenue by technology and ARPU, Indonesia, 2009–2018 Figure 53: Retail revenue by service type, Malaysia, 2009–2018 Figure 54: Growth rates of retail revenue by service type, Malaysia, 2009– 2018 Figure 55: Growth rates of connections by type, Malaysia, 2009–2018 Figure 56: Handsets and mobile broadband connections by generation, and mobile penetration, Malaysia, 2009–2018 Figure 57: Mobile retail revenue by service type and ASPU, Malaysia, 2009– 2018 Figure 58: Broadband connections by type and mobile as a proportion of the broadband base, Malaysia, 2009–2018 Figure 59: Fixed connections by type, and voice and broadband penetration, Malaysia, 2009–2018 6

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 List of figures [3] Figure 60: Fixed retail broadband revenue by technology and ARPU, Malaysia, 2009–2018 Figure 61: Retail revenue by service type, Pakistan, 2009–2018 Figure 62: Growth rates of retail revenue by service type, Pakistan, 2009– 2018 Figure 63: Growth rates of connections by type, Pakistan, 2009–2018 Figure 64: Mobile connections by generation, and mobile penetration, Pakistan, 2009–2018 Figure 65: Mobile retail revenue by service type and ASPU, Pakistan, 2009– 2018 Figure 66: Broadband connections by type and mobile as a proportion of the broadband base, Pakistan, 2009–2018 Figure 67: Fixed connections by type, and voice and broadband penetration, Pakistan, 2009–2018 Figure 68: Fixed retail broadband revenue by technology and ARPU, Pakistan, 2009–2018 Figure 69: Retail revenue by service type, Thailand, 2009–2018 Figure 70: Growth rates of retail revenue by service type, Thailand, 2009– 2018 Figure 71: Growth rates of connections by type, Thailand, 2009–2018 Figure 72: Mobile connections by generation, and mobile penetration, Thailand, 2009–2018 Figure 73: Mobile retail revenue by service type and ASPU, Thailand, 2009– 2018 Figure 74: Broadband connections by type and mobile as a proportion of the broadband base, Thailand, 2009–2018 Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, and voice and broadband penetration, Thailand, 2009–2018 Figure 76: Fixed retail broadband revenue by technology and ARPU, Thailand, 2009–2018 7

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 About this report  This report provides:  detailed telecoms historical data from 2009 to 2012 for the mobile and fixed markets in emerging Asia–Pacific, including key measures such as connections (split by technology and type), revenue, traffic and ARPU  key findings and implications for the telecoms market in emerging Asia–Pacific  forecasts of key telecoms market KPIs from 2013 to 2018 for the emerging Asia–Pacific region  line-by-line forecasts for connections by device type and by technology, revenue, ARPU, voice/data splits, fibre and 4G take-up, and voice traffic (MoU).  Figure 1 gives an overview of some of the major reported KPIs and splits.  For the definition of various mobile and fixed measures, see the ‘Data series definitions’ slide. ConnectionsRevenueARPU  Total  Penetration  M2M Mobile:  Prepaid/contract  Technology: 2G, 3G, 4G  Handset/broadband  Smartphone/non- smartphone Fixed:  Voice/broadband  VoIP  Technology: DSL, FTTx, cable modem, BFWA  Dial-up  IPTV  Retail/service Mobile:  Prepaid/contract  Handset/broadband/ M2M  Voice/messaging/ data Fixed:  Voice/broadband/ dial-up  Technology: DSL, FTTx, cable modem, BFWA Mobile:  SIMs/handsets  Prepaid/contract  Voice/non-voice Voice traffic Mobile:  Outgoing minutes of use (MoU) Fixed:  Outgoing MoU Figure 1: Reported KPIs and splits, emerging Asia–Pacific [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] 8

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 9 Executive summary Key findings and implications Market definition and methodology Emerging Asia–Pacific forecast Individual country forecasts About the authors and Analysys Mason

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Mobile data will be the main driver of telecoms revenue growth in emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms markets from 2013 to 2018  The emerging Asia–Pacific region generated retail telecoms revenue of USD245.6 billion in 2012. 1 Of this, 78.3% came from mobile voice services, which generated USD192.3 billion.  Overall, revenue grew at a CAGR of 8.5% from 2009 to 2012. Mobile revenue grew at 10.6%, while fixed revenue grew at a CAGR of 2.1% because of the strong 18.3% CAGR growth in fixed broadband.  We forecast that revenue growth will continue in the region, at a slower CAGR of 5.8% from 2013 to 2018. Total retail revenue will be USD347 billion by 2018.  Although the fastest growth area will be M2M, which will grow at a CAGR of 36.5%, it will still only account for less than 1.5% of total retail revenue in 2018. Handset data revenue will account for the most significant growth, growing at 13.8% per year, to reach USD86 billion in 2018. Handset data will account for almost 25% of total retail revenue by 2018, up from 15% in 2012. Mobile broadband revenue will reach USD17 billion by 2018, growing at 10.8% per year.  Fixed retail revenue growth will accelerate, growing at 3.3% per year during the forecast period, because growth in fixed broadband revenue will outweigh a continued decline in fixed voice revenue. Fixed revenue will reach USD64 billion by 2018, of which almost 53% will be from fixed broadband. Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue by service category, emerging Asia– Pacific, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] 1 For more information about our definition of the emerging Asia–Pacific region, see the ‘Geographical coverage’ slide. 10

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Mobile penetration is higher than 100% in two emerging Asia–Pacific markets, and penetration across the whole region will reach 100% by 2018  Mobile penetration in emerging Asia–Pacific markets stood at 69% of the population in 2012, with a total of 2.6 billion active mobile SIMs. We forecast penetration to grow to 101% by 2018, when the total number of SIMs will reach 4 billion.  Mobile penetration in the region overall is heavily affected by the high proportion of subscribers in China in the overall subscriber base; regional growth will more or less exactly mirror growth in China during the forecast period.  Growth will slow towards the end of the forecast period, as the number of unserved customers declines. However, the ‘multiple-SIM effect’ (the impact of subscribers purchasing more than one SIM in order to take advantage of special incentives), means that real penetration is lower, and significant growth potential will exist beyond 2018. For example, penetration in Malaysia and Thailand is higher than 100%, but will continue to grow albeit at a slower rate than previously.  3G will become increasingly important during the forecast period, growing from 16.2% of SIMs in 2012 to 40.7% in 2018. However, the impact of 4G will only pick up towards the end of the forecast period because of the delayed roll-out of 4G networks and lack of availability of 4G devices in the region. 4G will account for 10.5% of SIMs at the end of 2018, but only 4.2% at the end of 2016. 11 Figure 3: Active mobile SIM penetration by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 The voice market in emerging Asia–Pacific markets is increasingly mobile- dominated, and will become even more so during the forecast period  The number of voice connections reached 2.9 billion in emerging Asia–Pacific in 2012, up from 2.1 billion in 2009. We forecast an increase of 43% during the forecast period, to a total of 4.2 billion connections – led by China and India.  Mobile accounts for most of the connections, and will increasingly dominate the market. In 2009, 77.6% of connections were mobile. This had increased to 85.6% by 2012, and we forecast a further increase to 90.6% by 2018.  Mobile continues to dominate because it can efficiently serve wide areas with limited fixed access. Legacy fixed infrastructure in the region is largely restricted to urban centres, so wider service provision depends on the roll-out of new infrastructure. The geographical diversity of the region – for example, Indonesia’s multiple islands, and the mountainous or sparsely populated nature of many areas – also makes wireless networks an attractive option. User demand for mobility, even within limited areas such as major cities, is also a strong driver.  Mobile’s growing dominance is also evident in terms of volumes of voice traffic. Fixed traffic declined at a CAGR of –15.7% from 2009 to 2012 and will continue to decline at –3.4% from 2013 to 2018. By contrast, the volume of mobile traffic grew at 15% per year, and will continue growing at 4.8% per year. By 2018, 94.2% of traffic will be mobile- originated, compared with 77.4% in 2009. 12 Figure 4: Voice connections by type, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Broadband services in emerging Asia–Pacific will become more diverse, as wireless technologies reach new areas and fibre is rolled out in cities  Broadband is increasingly popular in emerging Asia–Pacific markets. The number of broadband connections in the region increased from 134.6 million in 2009 to 278 million in 2012.  We forecast slower growth from 2013, at a CAGR of 11.7%, to reach 571.6 million connections in 2018.  Historically, DSL has been the dominant technology, accounting for 76.1% of connections in 2009, although this will fall to 31.6% by 2018.  High-speed fibre and wireless connections will increase in importance during the forecast period; mobile broadband (non-handset-based) will drive the growth, accounting for 33.2% of connections in 2018, up from 7.3% in 2009. Mobile and fixed wireless will grow at a CAGR of 18.9% from 2013 to 2018, accounting for more than 207 million broadband connections – including the vast majority of connections in rural areas where fixed-line infrastructure is unavailable – in 2018.  Fibre services will be limited primarily to urban centres, where demand (and the business customer base) is sufficient to justify the high costs of roll-out. The number of fibre connections in the region will increase at a CAGR of 22.8% to reach 128.6 million in 2018. 13 Figure 5: Broadband connections by type, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2009– 2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Key findings and implications  The emerging APAC region has established itself as the main growth telecoms market in the world.  We predict that telecoms retail revenue will grow in all of the countries covered in this report during 2012–2018, at an overall CAGR of 5.8% for the region. The scale of this growth is immense in terms of numbers of connections and in dollars of revenue, but we expect telecoms revenue growth to lag behind overall GDP growth in the region, with retail revenue falling as a percentage of GDP from 1.9% to 1.3% during the next 5 years.  Mobile penetration of the population will exceed 100% within our forecast period.  The emerging APAC region will have almost 4 billion connections by 2018, representing almost half of the world’s mobile connections. Mobile operators will face a continuing challenge to balance the new revenue opportunities with the demands of satisfying an ever increasing consumer base. Issues specific to the region, such as the increased availability of low-price counterfeit handsets, have already significantly challenged operators, because these handsets cannot enable access to revenue- generating services such as data and the harm that the bespoke operating systems (OSs) can do to network performance.  The number of almost all types of fixed broadband connections will rapidly grow, but mobile broadband will lose ground to smartphones.  Fixed, mobile and handset broadband services are set for overall revenue growth of more than 10.5% during the next 5 years and will generate more than USD142 billion by 2018. In some countries, the increasing availability of good-quality 3G and 4G services will put pressure on mobile broadband services. Handset data revenue will grow at 13.9% CAGR during the period, almost 3% more than mobile broadband.  2G services will continue to be a large and not necessarily desirable part of operators’ portfolios for the coming years.  3G and even 4G connections will be widely available by the end of the forecast period, but 2G connections will still represent 49% of total connections in 2018. This poses several challenges for operators as they seek to upgrade technology. The consumers with 2G connections will prevent spectrum re-allocation, carry a larger cost per subscriber to serve and spend less money on mobile services than 3G/4G data subscribers. Migration will form a key part of operator strategies in the coming years. 15

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Geographical coverage: emerging Asia–Pacific 17 – Afghanistan – American Samoa – Armenia – Azerbaijan – Bhutan – Cambodia – Cook Islands – Fiji – Georgia – Kazakhstan – Kiribati – Kyrgyzstan – Laos – Maldives – Marshall Islands – Micronesia – Mongolia – Myanmar – Nauru – Nepal – Niue – North Korea – Palau – Papua New Guinea – Philippines – Samoa – Solomon Islands – Sri Lanka – Tajikistan – Timor-Leste – Tonga – Turkmenistan – Tuvalu – Uzbekistan – Vanuatu – Vietnam. ▪ The following countries are modelled individually: ▪ The following countries were modelled as part of the EMAP region as a whole: – Bangladesh – China – India – Indonesia – Malaysia – Pakistan – Thailand. Figure 6: Countries covered in this report [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] ■ Countries modelled individually ■ Countries modelled as part of the emerging Asia–Pacific region India Pakistan Malaysia Indonesia Bangladesh China Thailand

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Forecasting methodology: our comprehensive telecoms forecast model is supported by a sound knowledge of markets  All our forecasts are prepared and reviewed by analysts who are deeply familiar with the underlying technologies and services we are forecasting, and with the commercial and regulatory characteristics of the markets being modelled.  The forecasts are intended to predict outcomes and expected market development, rather than to model market opportunity.  The key assumptions in our forecasts take into account likely commercial and regulatory developments in particular markets, as well as technology developments and evolution. As part of the process, we also solicit opinions on market developments from major players.  We are happy to discuss our key assumptions in more detail with clients. Figure 7: Key factors influencing forecast assumptions [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] 18

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Forecasting methodology: we base our forecasts on reported metrics, and insight into market and competitive dynamics  We forecast fixed and mobile services in relation to each other, not in isolation. The major (interrelated) dynamics in the market are:  substitution (fixed–mobile, mobile–fixed)  complementary usage.  Our general approach to forecasting telecoms markets is econometric. The key assumptions that underpin our forecasts are:  usage trends  pricing trends.  Services covered include fixed and mobile voice, fixed and mobile broadband and mobile messaging and non-messaging data. 19 Figure 8: Key metrics for historical and forecast data [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] HistoricalForecast = Price elasticity of demand Retail revenue Traffic Price per unit Traffic Retail revenue Inputs from which we derive: Forecasts from which we derive:

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Key forecast assumptions: emerging Asia–Pacific [1] Demographic and economic considerations  The rising number of price-sensitive users from suburban and rural areas will maintain pressure on mobile voice pricing.  The increasing average age of the population (from 31.9 years in 2012 to 33.6 years in 2018), and rising GDP per capita (from USD3519 in 2012 to USD6539 in 2018), will expand the size of the addressable market for telecoms services.  Growth in GDP in emerging Asia–Pacific markets is expected to be faster than in the rest of the world and will create growing demand for business network services, although prices for these will face downward pressure because of increased competition and availability of services. Technology considerations: mobile  Operators will continue to invest in 3G networks, in order to satisfy demand for mobile data services. Licensing problems in countries such as Bangladesh and Pakistan have restricted 3G roll-out and hence take-up, but when these are resolved and devices become more affordable, pent-up demand will lead to strong growth.  Operators will actively expand mobile network coverage, increase capacity and improve quality, in an effort to encourage new subscriptions, particularly in under-penetrated rural areas, but also to improve service reliability, encouraging established users to increase their expenditure on next-generation data services.  LTE roll-out in the region will commence in earnest from 2013. Commercial LTE services are available in Malaysia, TD-LTE roll-out has started in China (China Mobile), and limited LTE services are offered in India (airtel India launched LTE services in Kolkata in April 2012, but take-up has been low) and the Philippines. Numerous LTE trials are underway in countries throughout the region. However, spectrum, licensing and investment constraints, as well as the limited affordability of devices, mean that 4G will remain peripheral throughout the forecast period. Delays to spectrum licence auctions in several countries – particularly Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Thailand – will have an impact on mobile network capacity in the region as a whole.  The number of mobile and fixed–wireless broadband connections will grow much faster than fixed broadband connections across the region. 20

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Key forecast assumptions: emerging Asia–Pacific [2] Technology considerations: fixed  Fixed infrastructure is unlikely to extend its reach beyond existing coverage areas, with the exception of fixed–wireless access, which is popular in countries such as Indonesia and Pakistan.  Fibre roll-out will be limited to the main urban areas and FTTx’s share of fixed broadband connections will continue to be relatively small during the forecast period, driven mainly by take-up in high-end urban areas, and by business demand in both cities and key technology centres.  National broadband network plans by incumbent operators in Indonesia, Malaysia and elsewhere in the region will help to improve connectivity in the core network, supporting fixed broadband access over copper and fibre. Commercial considerations  Smartphones will continue to become more affordable as inexpensive Android devices manufactured in the region (mainly in China and India) become more abundant, making advanced data services more widespread even among lower-spending users.  Fixed voice revenue per minute will continue to decline in emerging Asia–Pacific markets because of competition from mobile, even as volumes continue to fall. Despite this, the greater availability, convenience and flexibility of pricing (for example, prepaid) for mobile voice packages, and the dual voice/data capabilities of mobile devices, mean that fixed voice will continue to lose share to mobile voice during the forecast period.  Increased demand for fixed broadband services will help to sustain the fixed-line market, mitigating the effects of declining demand for fixed voice services. 21

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Data series definitions: mobile  Active subscribers: refers to handset and mobile broadband SIMs active within the past 3 months, rather than to the number of customers. These include mobile virtual network operators’ (MVNOs’) retail subscribers, which are allocated to the hosts’ networks.  Subscriptions are split by:  type: prepaid and contract  device: handsets and mobile broadband (including USB modems and connected mid-screen devices)  generation: 2G, 3G and 4G (corresponding to the highest technology supported by the device and networks in the country).  M2M connections are not included in total mobile connections and splits by generation or prepaid/contract because they are not explicitly linked to subscribers.  Further detail on device type:  handsets: all voice devices, either basic phones or smartphones  mobile broadband includes PC, laptop, netbook or tablet PC connections via a USB modem or datacard, and excludes handset-based Internet access or use of the handset as a modem. 22  Service revenue is composed of:  retail revenue: all end-user revenue, exclusive of direct equipment sales  termination revenue: all inter-operator revenue, inclusive of roaming-in revenue.  Revenue is split by service type:  messaging: SMS and MMS, by definition on handsets only  handset data: non-voice, non-messaging services on handsets, including use of the handset as a modem (tethering).  Average revenue per user (ARPU) is service revenue accrued during the period divided by the average number of subscriptions, while average spend per user (ASPU) is the equivalent measure for retail revenue.  Voice usage (minutes) – mobile-originated or outgoing traffic: all traffic generated by operators’ and MVNOs’ end users.  Analysys Mason’s definition of 4G includes any mobile technology greater than 3.5G (for example, HSDPA, HSUPA, CDMA2000 1× EV-DO Rev. A and Flash OFDM) even if it does not meet the ITU’s definition of 4G.

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Data series definitions: fixed  Connections are split by service type:  voice: supported by either PSTN/ISDN or VoIP  fixed broadband: see further technology split below.  Multi-play accounts are counted as many times as the number of services they take (for example, a subscriber taking fixed voice and fixed broadband is counted as one fixed voice connection and one fixed broadband connection).  Fixed broadband connections are split by technology:  DSL  cable modem  FTTH/B (by definition, residential only)  BFWA (that is, wireless technologies that lack full mobility). 23  Service revenue is composed of:  retail revenue: all end-user revenue, exclusive of equipment sales, made up of revenue from:  voice retail services (PSTN/ISDN or VoIP)  fixed broadband retail services  business network services  wholesale revenue: all inter-operator revenue.  ARPU is service revenue accrued during the period divided by the average number of subscriptions, while ASPU is the equivalent measure for retail revenue.  Voice usage (minutes) – fixed-originated or outgoing traffic: all traffic generated by the operators’ end users. We do not include fixed-terminating traffic.

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Population (million) GDP per capita (USD thousand) Telecoms retail revenuePopulation penetration (%) 3G share of mobile SIMs (%) Total (USD billion) Per capita (USD) Share of GDP (%) From mobile services (%) Fixed broadband Mobile SIMs Bangladesh15413172.2%83%0%63%0% China133361571181.9%76%13%72%24% India1229230241.6%87%1%57%5% Indonesia250413521.5%76%1%93%30% Malaysia3010 3273.1%74%11%132%37% Pakistan18214231.8%67%1%65%1% Thailand69581202.2%76%6%113%14% EMAP (total)37294246661.9%78%6%69%16% Market context: seven countries in emerging Asia–Pacific account for 87% of the population of 3.73 billion and 90% of the telecoms retail revenue  Malaysia has the smallest population but the highest GDP and telecoms revenue per capita. It leads in terms of mobile SIM penetration and 3G share of mobile SIMs.  Indonesia is the third largest in terms of population and mobile penetration. It is the second largest in terms of 3G share of mobile SIMs, slightly behind Malaysia.  Thailand is one of the smallest countries by population, but is second highest in terms of mobile penetration and highest in terms of voice minutes per capita. Figure 9: Metrics for the seven countries modelled individually in emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]  China is the largest country in terms of population and accounted for nearly 64% of emerging Asia–Pacific’s telecoms revenue in 2012. It has the highest fixed broadband penetration but is only fourth in terms of mobile SIM penetration and third in terms of 3G share of mobile SIMs.  India is the second-largest country in terms of population and in terms of its share of the region’s telecoms revenue. However, its mobile SIM penetration is the lowest at 57%.  Bangladesh is the lowest in terms of telecoms revenue per capita, followed by Pakistan. Bangladesh and Pakistan contribute just 2.7% of the region’s telecoms revenue. 25

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Service category Revenue 2012(USD billion) Revenue 2018 (USD billion) CAGR 2009–2012 CAGR 2013–2018 Mobile voice 126.7152.25.6%3.0% Mobile messaging 19.7 22.76.4%3.3% Mobile handset data 36.3 86.030.7%13.8% Mobile broadband 8.7 17.087.2%10.8% M2M 0.9 5.042.1%36.5% Fixed voice and narrowband 17.1 9.7–14.9%–7.1% Fixed broadband 25.5 33.918.3%4.2% IPTV 2.5 6.970.2%13.8% Business network services 7.5 13.112.9%9.5% Total245.6 347.08.5%5.8% Handset data services will be the main driver of telecoms revenue and connections growth in emerging Asia–Pacific markets from 2012 to 2018 Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue by service category, emerging Asia– Pacific, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] 26 Service category Connections 2012 (million) Connections 2018 (million) CAGR 2009–2012 CAGR 2013–2018 Mobile handsets 2512.1 3808.215.8%6.4% Mobile broadband 60.6 190.083.1%18.8% Fixed voice 423.6 393.6–3.2%–1.1% Fixed broadband 217.4 381.620.4%8.9% Figure 12: Connections by type and growth rates, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] Figure 11: Growth rates of retail revenue by service type, emerging Asia– Pacific, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 The emerging Asia–Pacific region will have almost 4 billion active mobile SIMs by the end of 2018  The emerging Asia–Pacific region had 2.6 billion active SIMs as of 2012, an increase of almost 12% from the previous year. We expect this number to grow in the next 5 years at a CAGR of 6.9%, to reach 4 billion in 2018, marginally exceeding 100% penetration.  This growth will be driven by the increasing affordability and wider coverage of mobile services.  China and India account for around 64.3% of the total active SIMs in the region. This proportion will change very little during the forecast period. Together, they will add a further 893.8 million SIMs by 2018.  Growth in the number of mobile SIMs will be fastest in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan at 7.6%, 7.5% and 7.4% respectively. Growth in other markets in the region will be faster still thanks to markets like Myanmar which are newly liberalised and are expected to add large numbers of subscribers  As of 2012, 82.5% of active SIMs in the region were prepaid. We expect this to increase to 84.4% by 2018. This figure masks differences between the individual countries. China has an unusually high level of postpaid users for this region whereas, in contrast, 97% or more of SIMs in Bangladesh, Indonesia and Pakistan were prepaid in 2012, and will continue to be so during the forecast period. 27 Figure 13: Active mobile SIMs by country, and mobile penetration, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Mobile penetration will reach 100% in the region during the forecast period, but most markets will continue to have significant growth potential  Of the countries we modelled individually in emerging Asia– Pacific, the highest mobile penetration in 2012 was in Malaysia (132%) and Thailand (113.4%), which also have a relatively high GDP per capita. China also has a high GDP per capita, but its mobile services and economy generally are focused on built-up areas, so penetration was comparatively low at 71.7% in 2012.  Penetration in the region as a whole reached 69% in 2012, an increase of close to 7 percentage points compared with the previous year. We expect it to continue growing to 101% by the end of 2018.  Many countries in the region have a strong multiple-SIM effect. Therefore, the true penetration rate is lower than the active SIM penetration, which can rise substantially higher than 100%. However, high penetration does not necessarily reflect high multiple-SIM ownership. For example, China’s penetration rate is much higher than India’s even though multiple-SIM ownership is more widespread in India.  Penetration growth has been rather slower in some countries than others, for a variety of reasons. India has cut its subscriber numbers due to variations in the reporting of ‘active subscribers’. In Bangladesh, Pakistan and Thailand, issues with the awarding of licences has held back growth of 3G services. 28 Figure 14: Active mobile SIM penetration by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 2G connections will peak in 2014, but will continue to be the dominant mobile technology in the region throughout the forecast period  As of 2012, 3G networks accounted for 16.2% of active SIMs in emerging Asia–Pacific, up from just 2.7% in 2009. The rest are mostly 2G – 2.16 billion subscribers.  3G penetration will continue to grow as 3G roll-out extends coverage and 3G devices become more affordable. The 2G base of connections will peak in 2014 at 2.23 billion, before declining to 1.95 billion in 2018. 3G services will attract new subscribers as well as displace 2G SIMs. 3G will reach 1.63 billion active SIMs, accounting for 40.7% of SIMs by 2018. This growth will be driven in part by high 3G take-up in China and Indonesia, where 50% and 58.5% of SIMs respectively will be 3G in 2018.  A key driver of the growth in 3G penetration will be the availability of more-affordable 3G smartphones (priced at less than USD100), as the volume of smartphones worldwide increases in response to demand from developing markets. In particular, low-cost Android handsets will become increasingly popular in China and the rest of the region.  4G LTE has launched commercially on a limited basis in the region, and will emerge as a significant technology towards the end of the forecast period, accounting for 10.5% of SIMs by 2018. Malaysia will have the highest 4G penetration in 2018, at 37.4%, but by far the largest 4G market will be China with more than 240 million 4G subscribers by 2018. 29 Figure 15: Mobile connections by technology generation, and mobile penetration, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Revenue in all areas of the mobile market will increase during the forecast period, but data services will outstrip voice  Mobile retail revenue in emerging Asia–Pacific countries reached USD192 billion in 2012. We forecast growth at a CAGR of 6.5%, to reach USD283 billion in 2018.  Strong CAGRs of 6.7% and 6.0% in China and India respectively will drive the regional total. The average growth in other countries will be around 4% – lower than previously expected because of a combination of price pressure, regulatory uncertainty and threats from OTT services.  Mobile voice revenue will grow slowly, at a CAGR of 3.0%, as prices continue to fall and some countries in the region begin to make use of OTT voice apps available via 3G services.  In 2012, non-voice services accounted for 34% of retail revenue in the region. By 2018, it will have increased to more than 46%, driven by mobile broadband and handset data.  Data’s contribution to retail revenue varies significantly by country. In Bangladesh, which has the lowest GDP per capita of the forecast countries, 5.5% of revenue came from non- voice services in 2012. This will reach 13.7% by 2018, compared with 32.2% in India, and 59.2% in Indonesia.  Handset data revenue will increase more than any other service, to reach USD86 billion in 2018, at a CAGR of 13.8%. Handset data revenue will increase its share of the total from 18.9% in 2012 to 30.4% in 2018. 30 Figure 16: Mobile revenue by type and ASPU by type, emerging Asia– Pacific, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 The regional decline in ARPU will continue, but at a reduced pace because spending on non-voice services will mitigate the multiple-SIM effect  Mobile ARPU in emerging Asia–Pacific has significantly declined in recent years, from USD8.7 per month in 2009 to USD7.1 in 2012.  This is because of:  declining tariffs across the region  the extension of services to lower-income users who spend less on telecoms than established subscribers  the growing incidence of multiple-SIM ownership.  However, revenue has continued to rise, because of the high growth rate in the number of subscribers.  The forecast countries vary significantly in terms of ARPU, which is correlated to GDP per capita. Malaysia has the highest GDP per capita, and ARPU (USD16.5 in 2012), almost double the regional average. The ARPU in the lowest- income country, Bangladesh, is just 30% of the average (at USD2.1 in 2012).  ARPU for the region will be USD6.4 per month in 2018. We forecast that ARPU will continue to decline, but this will level off towards the end of the forecast period because the market will become increasingly saturated and higher-end customers using 3G smartphones will increase expenditure on data services. 31 Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific‚ 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 The volume of mobile voice traffic will continue to grow throughout the region as new subscribers enter the market and prices fall  Mobile voice traffic in the region grew from 5.4 trillion minutes in 2009 to 8.2 trillion in 2012. We forecast growth at a CAGR of 4.8%, to reach close to 11.3 trillion minutes in 2018.  China accounts for almost 53% of mobile voice traffic, as a result of its large and relatively affluent population. It will experience moderate growth, close to the average of the region.  Thailand will experience the slowest growth, at a CAGR of just 0.5%, because of its already high level of penetration and minutes of use.  Outgoing minutes of use per active connection for mobile voice will fall from 288 minutes per month in 2012, to 252 in 2018. Newer users (and second SIMs) will have rather lower minutes of use, but the voice usage of established subscribers will probably increase as prices per minute continue to fall slowly. 32 Figure 18: Outgoing mobile voice minutes by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 China dominates the fixed-line sector in emerging Asia–Pacific countries, and will drive growth in the number of fixed broadband connections  The number of fixed connections in emerging Asia–Pacific increased from 624.6 million in 2009 to 691.4 million in 2012, at a CAGR of 3.4%. We forecast growth at a CAGR of 3.3%, to reach a total of 852 million in 2018. 1  The slow growth in overall connections masks a general decline in fixed voice lines (at a CAGR of –1.1%), and faster growth in IPTV (a CAGR of 11.6%), and more significantly, in fixed broadband lines (a CAGR of 8.9%).  Fixed voice connections declined in China and India, at CAGRs of –3.0% and –7.7% respectively, from 2009 to 2012.  All countries will experience double-digit growth rates in fixed broadband lines, continuing the trend of the last few years.  China dominates the fixed sector in emerging Asia–Pacific, not only because of its size, but because of its comparatively well-developed fixed-line infrastructure. China’s population is similar in size to that of India, but it has more than six times the number of fixed voice lines, and eleven times more fixed broadband lines. However, fast growth in the number of fixed broadband connections in India will reduce this gap by 2018.  Most (71.3%) lines used DSL in 2012, but this will decline to 47.4% by 2018, as technologies such as FTTH and fixed– wireless (such as WiMAX) continue to increase in importance. 33 Figure 19: Fixed-line connections by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2009– 2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] 1 In this context, a fixed connection carrying fixed voice, fixed broadband and IPTV is counted multiple times.

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 M2M will grow rapidly during the forecast period – China will dominate and revenue will continue to be a fraction of overall telecoms revenue Figure 20: M2M connections by country and revenue as a share of telecoms retail revenue, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] 34

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Type CAGR 2009–2012 CAGR 2013–2018 Mobile voice14.4%1.9% Mobile messaging9.9%4.7% Mobile handset data41.5%17.5% Mobile broadband100.4%24.0% M2M40.5%39.9% Fixed voice and narrowband6.9%–1.6% Fixed broadband76.6%27.7% IPTVN/a Business network services23.0%7.3% Total15.0%4.4% Type CAGR 2009–2012 CAGR 2013–2018 Mobile handsets22.4%6.9% Mobile broadband129.9%26.8% Fixed voice0.1%2.2% Fixed broadband107.8%36.5% The telecoms market in Bangladesh will grow in almost all areas during 2013 and 2018, particularly in fixed and mobile data services Figure 21: Retail revenue by service type, Bangladesh, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] Figure 22: Growth rates of retail revenue by service type, Bangladesh, 2009– 2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] Figure 23: Growth rates of connections by type, Bangladesh, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] 36

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Mobile services in Bangladesh will have significant growth potential – 2G will continue to dominate throughout the period  Mobile penetration is low in Bangladesh – just 63.2% at the end of 2012. Three operators dominate the market – Grameenphone (with 41% of subscribers), Banglalink GSM (27%) and Robi (22%).  Bangladesh’s mobile market has significant growth potential, and we expect penetration to reach 92.4% of population by the end of 2018. This amounts to an average of 9.7 million net additions each year. Long-term growth is expected to be driven by an increasingly supportive regulatory environment. The government of Bangladesh recommended in April 2013 further reductions to the restrictive SIM tax.  Bangladesh is classified by the United Nations as one of the Least Developed Countries and GDP per capita is less than USD750. The prepaid model dominates, accounting for 97.5% of subscribers as of 2012. We do not expect this proportion to vary considerably during the forecast period.  3G licensing has been repeatedly delayed in Bangladesh, and the auction of 2.1GHz spectrum originally scheduled for 2008 is now due in September 2013. Accordingly, we expect 3G to account for only 14.5% of connections by 2018.  We do not expect 4G to launch in Bangladesh until 2015 at the earliest. It will have a negligible effect during the forecast period and will account for 1.7% of connections by 2018. 37 Figure 24: Mobile connections by generation, and mobile penetration, Bangladesh, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Voice services will continue to account for the largest part of the mobile market, but non-voice services are increasing in importance  The mobile market in Bangladesh generated retail revenue of BDT170.8 billion (USD2.12 billion) in 2012, an increase of 10.5% compared with 2011. We expect growth to slow to a CAGR of 3.5% in the period from 2013 to 2018, and revenue to reach BDT219.4 billion (USD2.7 billion) in 2018.  Mobile voice services account for the vast majority of revenue, and we expect this to continue. In 2012, voice revenue was BDT161.4 billion (USD2.0 billion), 94.5% of the total, and it will grow to BDT189.3 billion (USD2.35 billion) n 2018.  Revenue from messaging services formed the largest category of non-voice revenue at BDT3.4 billion (USD41.6 million) in 2012. It will grow at a CAGR of 4.7% in the period from 2013 to 2018, but will be overtaken by mobile broadband and handset data during this time.  Handset data revenue accounted for close to just 1.3% of the total in 2012, but will grow at a CAGR of 17.5% during the forecast period, to reach BDT8.7 billion (USD108 million) by 2018.  Mobile ASPU will continue its downward trajectory, declining at a CAGR of –4.3% to reach BDT120.8 (USD1.5) per month in 2018. 38 Figure 25: Mobile retail revenue by service type and ASPU, Bangladesh, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Bangladesh’s broadband sector has enormous potential for growth, and mobile will be the access technology of choice  Bangladesh’s Internet landscape remains underdeveloped, with just 5.5 million mobile broadband and smartphone connections as of 2012, serving a population of 154 million.  We forecast substantial growth in this area, most of it in the mobile sphere. The licensing of 2.1GHz 3G services – expected in 2013 but subject to further delays – will provide faster mobile data services, fuelling a significant increase in the number of mobile broadband USB modems and connected smartphones.  Mobile broadband connections will increase from approximately 1.2 million in 2012 to 7.7 million in 2018, of which 52% will be 3G. Most of the existing subscribers are 2G EDGE users, with the exception of Citycell’s EV-DO users. Teletalk has provided 3G data services since January 2013, and the competition between Teletalk and Citycell is expected to drive additional take-up of 3G throughout 2013.  Smartphones will play an increasingly important role in providing Internet access in Bangladesh, and will amount to 29.3 million connections by 2018. This represents more than 72% of broadband connections, and 20% of handsets.  The number of fixed broadband connections will increase at a CAGR of 36.5% to reach 3.8 million by 2018 – most of the growth will come from fixed–wireless services. 39 Figure 26: Broadband connections by type and mobile as a proportion of the broadband base, Bangladesh, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 The fixed market is inferior to the mobile market in Bangladesh, and fixed–wireless services will drive fixed broadband growth  The fixed-line market in Bangladesh has been overshadowed by mobile, which has grown more quickly in recent years. The fixed copper network in Bangladesh has limited coverage, so much of the growth has come from FWA.  Bangladesh had 1.67 million fixed voice lines in 2012. We expect the number of fixed voice lines to increase at a modest rate to reach 2 million by 2018, with most of the growth coming from FWA connections.  The fixed broadband market has stronger growth prospects, because consumers will want high-speed Internet access. Fixed broadband revenue in 2012 was BDT5.6 billion (USD70 million), almost precisely double that of the previous year. We expect revenue to grow to BDT28.1 billion (USD349 million) in 2018.  Most of the growth in fixed broadband revenue in the short- to-medium term will come from WiMAX services, which significantly increased in popularity in 2012. We expect Bangladesh to have around 2 million WiMAX subscribers by 2018, accounting for more than 90% of fixed broadband revenue.  The increasing importance of WiMAX will reduce the fixed broadband ARPU, because new lower-usage prepaid subscribers will dilute the revenue of the existing higher- spending subscriber base. 40 Figure 27: Fixed connections by type, and voice and broadband penetration, Bangladesh, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] Figure 28: Fixed retail broadband revenue by technology and ARPU, Bangladesh, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Type CAGR 2009–2012 CAGR 2013–2018 Mobile handsets13.8%5.7% Mobile broadband87.9%11.9% Fixed voice–3.0%–1.3% Fixed broadband19.3%6.8% Revenue in China’s telecoms market – the world’s largest in terms of subscribers – will grow at a 5.8% CAGR from 2013 to 2018 Figure 29: Retail revenue by service type, China, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] Figure 30: Growth rates of retail revenue by service type, China, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] Figure 31: Growth rates of connections by type, China, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] 41 Type CAGR 2009–2012 CAGR 2013–2018 Mobile voice6.5%3.2% Mobile messaging3.1%2.6% Mobile handset data29.4%12.6% Mobile broadband98.5%9.5% M2M39.8%36.4% Fixed voice and narrowband–17.6%–6.5% Fixed broadband16.2%1.9% IPTV61.8%12.2% Business network services13.9%11.0% Total9.1%5.9%

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Mobile penetration in China will reach 104% by 2018, and customers will increasingly favour 3G and 4G services  The mobile market in China has grown rapidly – active connections reached a population penetration of 71.7% in 2012. China has three network operators, each operating nationally. The two largest – China Mobile and China Unicom – operate GSM networks for 2G services. The smallest operator, China Telecom, uses CDMA.  We expect mobile subscriber growth to continue at a CAGR of 5.9%, to reach 1.42 billion SIMs in 2018, up from 0.96 billion in 2012. This will represent a penetration of 103.6%. Fewer people have multiple-SIMs in China than in the rest of the region, and ARPU is correspondingly somewhat higher (only behind Malaysia in the region).  All three operators launched 3G services in 2009, each using a different technology. Take-up has been rapid – 24.4% of active SIMs in 2012 are 3G, but China Mobile’s market share of 3G SIMs is low compared with 2G, because its use of the TD- SCDMA system has restricted the range of available handsets. We expect 3G market share to peak in 2017 at 50.5%.  The regulator has not made any clear announcements regarding the launch date of 4G services, but China Mobile has been conducting extensive TD-LTE trials, and already runs commercial services in Hong Kong. We expect to see the first commercial 4G service launched in 2013, with 4G accounting for 17% of mobile connections by 2018. 42 Figure 32: Mobile connections by generation, and mobile penetration, China, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Mobile revenue in China will reach CNY1.1 trillion (USD177 billion) by 2018, primarily driven by growth in handset data services  Mobile retail revenue in China grew at a CAGR of 11.9% from 2009 to 2012, and we forecast growth to continue at a CAGR of 6.7%, to reach CNY1.1 trillion (USD177 billion) in 2018.  Although the share of revenue from voice services has declined (in line with other countries in the world), capacity for growth remains. Voice revenue will grow at a CAGR of 3.2% to CNY549.5 billion (USD87.1 billion) in 2018.  Take-up and usage of mobile data services is increasing rapidly, and will account for 36.2% of revenue in 2018. Mobile messaging services account for a declining share of data revenue, but will continue to grow at a CAGR of 2.6%, to reach CNY80.5 billion (USD12.8 billion) in 2018.  Mobile broadband services were launched in 2009, and accounted for 4.1% of revenue in 2012. We expect moderate growth during the forecast period; revenue will reach CNY54 billion (USD8.6 billion) in 2018, almost 5% of the total. Handset data revenue will grow at a CAGR of 12.6%, fuelled by the increase in smartphone penetration.  Mobile ASPU has fallen in recent years, and we expect it to plateau at about CNY66 per month (USD11). 43 Figure 33: Mobile retail revenue by service type and ASPU, China, 2009– 2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Smartphones account for one in three handsets in China and will continue to dominate the Internet market there by 2018  The number of Internet connections in China increased substantially from 2009 to 2012, reaching 504 million, and we forecast continued high growth during the forecast period.  Fixed broadband has historically been the preferred Internet access in China, but smartphones have led since 2011. The number of fixed broadband lines grew at a CAGR of 19.3% to cross 175 million in 2012. We forecast growth to slow to a CAGR of 6.8%, giving a total of 274.5 million lines in 2018.  USB-modem-based mobile broadband services were launched in 2009 and had attracted 26 million subscribers by the end of 2012. This growth will slow, and there will be around 55 million users by 2018. This is less than 6.5% of the number of smartphones at that date, indicating that mobile broadband will be a niche access technology by that time.  By the end of 2012, approximately 33% of handsets in China were smartphones, making it the largest smartphone market in the world. We forecast this to increase to 63% by 2018.  High-end feature phones perform many of the same functions as low-end smartphones, and will provide further impetus for mobile Internet connection growth. In particular, feature phones and smartphones running Android have become popular since they were launched in China in 2010, and will continue to gain market share. 44 Figure 34: Broadband connections by type and mobile as a proportion of the broadband base, China, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Fixed voice connections are in decline, but broadband continues to grow, driven by the increased availability of high-speed services  The number of fixed voice lines in China has declined, from 316.7 million in 2009 to 289.0 million in 2012, because of the success of the mobile market. We forecast that this trend will continue, and the number of lines will reach 266.4 million in 2018, a CAGR of –1.3% between 2013 and 2018. This is equivalent to a 19% penetration of the population.  Conversely, fixed broadband growth will continue, and penetration will reach 20% by the end of the forecast period.  Fixed broadband revenue reached CNY124.6 billion (USD19.8 billion) in 2012, and will continue to grow, at a CAGR of 1.9%, to reach CNY146 billion (USD23.1 billion) in 2018. This is a slower growth rate than that of fixed broadband connections, because we expect ARPU to decline to around CNY45 per month in 2018.  DSL accounted for 70% of revenue in 2012, but this will decline to 40% in 2018, as faster fibre and cable broadband increase in popularity. China Telecom expects to have passed 100 million homes with its fibre network by 2015, and this will help drive an increase in FTTH/B revenue from CNY27 billion (USD4.3 billion) in 2012 to CNY67.4 billion (USD10.7 billion) in 2018. 45 Figure 35: Fixed connections by type, and voice and broadband penetration, China, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] Figure 36: Fixed retail broadband revenue by technology and ARPU, China, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Type CAGR 2009–2012 CAGR 2013–2018 Mobile voice4.0%2.9% Mobile messaging35.8%3.4% Mobile handset data44.4%26.6% Mobile broadband79.4%9.2% M2M40.2%40.9% Fixed voice and narrowband–14.3%–11.3% Fixed broadband25.8%4.1% IPTV228.4%10.0% Business network services–1.3%10.3% Total7.4%5.3% Type CAGR 2009–2012 CAGR 2013–2018 Mobile handsets21.5%7.0% Mobile broadband75.1%23.9% Fixed voice–7.7%–2.8% Fixed broadband24.2%11.0% Revenue will increase in all areas of the Indian telecoms market except fixed voice, which is losing market share to mobile Figure 37: Retail revenue by service type, India, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] Figure 38: Growth rates of retail revenue by service type, India, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] Figure 39: Growth rates of connections by type, India, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] 46

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 India will have more than 1.1 billion active mobile subscribers by 2018, but 2G will dominate throughout the forecast period  India is the world’s second-largest mobile market, after China, with almost 700 million active subscribers in 2012. But this represents a penetration of just 57%, so the market has significant scope for growth. We expect penetration to reach 84.7% in 2018, giving a total of 1.13 billion active SIMs.  The two state-owned operators (BSNL and MTNL) launched 3G services in 2009, but their private competitors received licences in 2010 after a protracted delay in the auction process. 3G penetration in India is low because of the high price of 3G services, low consumer awareness of services and network congestion, although this has reportedly improved in the last year. Vodafone in particular has announced plans to invest in improving network services. By the end of 2012, 5% of subscribers were 3G, and we expect this to rise to almost 30% by 2018.  The cancellation of 122 2G licences because of irregularities during the allocation process is expected to have little impact on the number of active subscribers, because other operators will quickly recruit users whose service was disconnected.  In April 2012, Airtel India was the first Indian operator to offer 4G services, using TD-LTE in the 2.1GHz band, which is usually used for UMTS. We do not expect significant numbers of 4G subscribers in India until more spectrum is released. About 4.8% of subscribers will use 4G in 2018. 47 Figure 40: Mobile connections by generation, and mobile penetration, India, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 India’s mobile retail revenue will increase to more than INR2 trillion in 2018, and revenue from all services will increase  The Indian mobile market generated retail revenue of INR1.38 trillion (USD25.8 billion) in 2012, having grown at a CAGR of 9% since 2009. We expect growth to slow during the forecast period, to a CAGR of 6% reaching INR2.02 trillion (USD37.9 billion) in 2018.  Mobile ASPU has declined significantly in recent years, as mobile services have penetrated less-well-off strata of Indian society. ASPU had fallen to INR172 (USD3.2) per month by 2012. We expect the decline to slow, and ASPU to stabilise at around INR154 (USD2.9) per month. This reduced rate of decline is because the expected increased spend on data services will offset reduced voice and messaging spend.  Voice is by far the most significant mobile service, accounting for 80% of revenue in 2012. Voice revenue has scope to increase, and we forecast growth at a CAGR of 2.9%, to reach INR1.37 trillion (USD25.7 billion) in 2018, 68% of the total.  Messaging services have historically dominated non-voice revenue, but these will become increasingly marginalised during the forecast period. This is a result of high forecast growth in mobile broadband and handset data services, which together will amount to 26.4% of total retail revenue in 2018. 48 Figure 41: Mobile retail revenue by service type and ASPU, India, 2009– 2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 India will have 369 million smartphones and 96 million broadband connections by 2018  Internet access is a key growth area in India, and this is reflected in the large increase in the number of connections since 2009. Fixed broadband lines increased from 7.8 million in 2009 to 15 million in 2012, a CAGR of 24.2%. Mobile broadband grew even faster, at a CAGR of 75.1%, to reach 16.5 million connections.  This high growth will continue during the forecast period. We expect a total of 96 million fixed and mobile broadband connections by 2018. This is equivalent to a population penetration of 7.2%, leaving further significant growth potential from 2018 onwards.  The slow growth of the 3G market has meant that smartphone penetration is below many other countries in the region. However, significant growth began in this area in 2011, alongside the introduction of 3G services by the major private operators. By 2018, we expect 34.7% of handsets to be smartphones, up from 6.5% in 2012. India will have almost 369 million active smartphones by 2018, making this an important segment of the wider Internet market. 49 Figure 42: Broadband connections by type and mobile as a proportion of the broadband base, India, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 The focus of the fixed-line market in India is rapidly shifting away from legacy voice services towards high-speed broadband  The fixed voice market in India has been in decline, because it has struggled with competition from mobile services. The number of fixed voice lines fell from 55.7 million in 2009 to 43.7 million in 2012. We expect this trend to continue – the fixed-line base will decline at 2.8% per year to reach 35.5 million in 2018. This is in stark contrast to fixed broadband, which will grow at a CAGR of 11% during the same period.  Total fixed broadband revenue reached INR97.3 billion (USD1.8 billion) in 2012. The government’s National Broadband Plan will help to drive an increase in broadband access, by providing operators with access to backhaul capacity. This will contribute towards growth in fixed broadband revenue at a CAGR of 4.1%, to reach INR131 billion (USD2.5 billion) in 2018.  Most of the revenue came from DSL, which accounted for 85.6% of total fixed broadband revenue in 2012, but this is set to decline to 53.3% by 2018 because of strong growth in cable and fibre broadband services, which will together account for 35.2% of fixed broadband connections and 38.3% of revenue.  Fixed broadband ARPU will continue to decline at over 6% per year – to as low as INR399 (USD7.5) per month in 2018 – as penetration increases. 50 Figure 43: Fixed connections by type, and voice and broadband penetration, India, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] Figure 44: Fixed retail broadband revenue by technology and ARPU, India, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Type CAGR 2009–2012 CAGR 2013–2018 Mobile voice3.8%–2.8% Mobile messaging8.7%3.2% Mobile handset data32.4%12.4% Mobile broadband100.2%14.0% M2MN/a39.4% Fixed voice and narrowband–9.8%–7.9% Fixed broadband28.4%21.4% IPTV268.4%17.5% Business network services6.9%5.0% Total6.6%4.2% Type CAGR 2009–2012 CAGR 2013–2018 Mobile handsets17.5%4.6% Mobile broadband102.3%14.9% Fixed voice4.0%3.0% Fixed broadband41.1%23.7% Data revenue will grow in Indonesia, but voice revenue will decline despite an increase in the number of connections Figure 45: Retail revenue by service type, Indonesia, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] Figure 46: Growth rates of retail revenue by service type, Indonesia, 2009– 2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] Figure 47: Growth rates of connections by type, Indonesia, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] 51

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Mobile penetration will continue to grow rapidly in Indonesia, reaching 123% in 2018 and more than half of connections will be 3G  Indonesia’s mobile market has seven cellular network operators, but three GSM-based operators – Indosat, Telkomsel and XL Axiata – dominate. Together, they accounted for 85% of active mobile subscribers at the end of 2012. Smaller operators, particularly those with CDMA networks, have been consolidating.  Continued price competition and expansion of cellular networks should drive mobile penetration from almost 93% at the end of 2012 to 123% at the end of 2018.  We expect prepaid subscriptions to continue to account for around 98% of mobile connections in Indonesia.  3G has been available in Indonesia since 2006 and accounted for 30% of mobile connections at the end of 2012. We expect this to increase to 58.5% in 2018.  Indosat, Telkomsel and XL Axiata have all run LTE trials, but the spectrum auctions have been delayed and a date for the release of spectrum has not been confirmed. We do not expect widespread commercial launch until 2014. 52 Figure 48: Mobile connections by generation, and mobile penetration, Indonesia, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Growth in Indonesia’s mobile data revenue will more than compensate for declining mobile voice revenue  Growth in the number of mobile connections has not fully compensated for declining voice ASPU because low-income customers and strong price competition have diluted revenue.  We expect voice services to account for 40.8% of Indonesia’s mobile retail revenue in 2018, down from 58.2% in 2012.  Mobile messaging is popular in Indonesia and accounted for 57.3% of mobile data revenue in 2012, but we expect this to fall to 39.3% in 2018. Messaging revenue is expected to continue to grow at 3.2%, but not as strongly as mobile handset data revenue, which we forecast will grow at 12.4%. By 2018, we expect handset data to account for 50% of mobile data revenue while mobile broadband will account for almost 11%.  Packages such as Telkomsel’s prepaid starter pack called Facebook SIM Card, which enables prepaid users to easily access Facebook from their handset for free, will continue to encourage handset data usage. However, such packages rely on subscribers also using other data services to generate revenue. 53 Figure 49: Mobile retail revenue by service type and ASPU, Indonesia, 2009– 2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Mobile connections will continue to dominate Internet access in Indonesia, despite improved fixed broadband coverage  Indonesia had only 9.5 million broadband connections for its population of 249.5 million at the end of 2012, and 61% of those broadband connections were mobile. Indonesia’s 49.6 million smartphones provide the main mode of Internet access, and Indonesia is a major market for BlackBerry devices, and has one of the largest numbers of Facebook and Twitter users in the world. 1  We expect smartphone penetration to continue to grow, reaching 53.3% of mobile handsets by the end of 2018, up from 22% in 2012. Mobile operators’ packages for easy and inexpensive access to Facebook will be an important driver of usage of smartphones for Internet access.  Continued improvements in 3G coverage and capacity, combined with more-affordable laptops and USB modems, will allow mobile broadband connections to increase three- fold from 2012 to 16.6 million in 2018.  Fixed broadband coverage will improve with national infrastructure projects, such as Telkom’s True Broadband Access programme, which will pass 13 million homes with fibre-optic speeds of 20–100Mbps by 2015. However, the geography of Indonesia will continue to favour mobile technologies. 54 Figure 50: Broadband connections by type and mobile as a proportion of the broadband base, Indonesia, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] 1 Telkom Indonesia, Form 6-K, April 2012. Available at www.telkom.co.id/investor- relation/reports/sec-reports/.

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Broadband services in Indonesia will provide revenue growth for fixed networks, more than offsetting the decline in voice revenue  Fixed voice connections in Indonesia increased from 35.1 million at the end of 2009 to 39.5 million at the end of 2012. Most of this growth has come from fixed wireless connections, which have expanded the geographical reach and affordability of fixed voice services.  Despite increasing numbers of voice connections, voice minutes and revenue have fallen because of fixed–mobile substitution. We expect just 5.5% of voice minutes to be carried on fixed networks in 2018, down from 7.7% in 2012.  Fixed broadband penetration in Indonesia is constrained by coverage and affordability, but the number of fixed broadband connections considerably overtook dial-up connections in 2012 which have seen close to no growth since 2009.  Most fixed broadband connections are DSL – 62.9% of connections in 2012.  Fixed–wireless connections will become increasingly important. They are based on CDMA and, to a lesser extent, WiMAX.  FTTH/B is likely to remain a premium service aimed primarily at businesses in major cities, despite national objectives to pass 13 million homes with 20–100Mbps speeds by 2015.  Fixed broadband services will provide revenue growth at a CAGR of 21.4% from 2013 to 2018, more than compensating for falling fixed voice revenue. 55 Figure 51: Fixed connections by type, and voice and broadband penetration, Indonesia, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] Figure 52: Fixed retail broadband revenue by technology and ARPU, Indonesia, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Type CAGR 2009–2012 CAGR 2013–2018 Mobile voice1.7%–1.2% Mobile messaging9.2%1.8% Mobile handset data20.2%16.2% Mobile broadband41.6%1.1% M2M34.0%33.1% Fixed voice and narrowband–3.5%–5.9% Fixed broadband28.3%–1.3% IPTV342.5%11.6% Business network services35.2%4.8% Total9.4%2.7% Type CAGR 2009–2012 CAGR 2013–2018 Mobile handsets7.5%3.7% Mobile broadband42.7%13.5% Fixed voice0.7%0.5% Fixed broadband26.0%3.6% Voice services are near saturation in Malaysia, but mobile handset data still has significant growth potential Figure 53: Retail revenue by service type, Malaysia, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] Figure 54: Growth rates of retail revenue by service type, Malaysia, 2009– 2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] Figure 55: Growth rates of connections by type, Malaysia, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] 56

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Mobile penetration is high in Malaysia, but it still has scope for growth, and 3G is becoming mainstream  Mobile penetration in Malaysia is well above 100%, but the number of SIMs grew at a CAGR of almost 9% between 2009 and 2012. Celcom Axiata, DiGi Telecommunications and Maxis lead the market – each has more than 27% of subscribers. U Mobile’s market share has steadily increased to 6% at the end of 2012 since it entered the market in 2008.  Despite the high rate of mobile penetration, we expect growth to continue, but at a slower pace than before. Penetration will reach 162% by 2018, and the SIM base will grow at a CAGR of 4.5%. Much of this growth will come from data-only SIMs.  3G services have been available in Malaysia for a number of years, and accounted for 37.4% of SIMs as of December 2012. This will increase to 52.2% by 2018. 4G services, launched in late 2012 by YTL Communications (Yes 4G) via its WiMAX service, will represent 37.4% of SIMs by 2018.  Maxis officially launched its LTE service in January 2013 and will be increasing coverage throughout the year. Celcom followed Maxis’s example in April 2013, and other operators in the market are expected to launch this year.  Postpaid subscriptions are increasingly popular in Malaysia, and we expect them to account for 23.5% of the market by the end of the forecast period. 57 Figure 56: Mobile connections by generation, and mobile penetration, Malaysia, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Mobile revenue will continue to grow, because an increase in data usage will compensate for saturation in the voice market  Mobile retail revenue in Malaysia has grown steadily, despite the recession of 2009. It grew at a CAGR of 7% from 2009, to reach MYR22 billion (USD7.1 billion) in 2012. We expect growth to slow during the forecast period, as penetration approaches saturation and increased competition depresses prices. By 2018, the market will generate revenue of MYR27.1 billion (USD8.8 billion).  Voice revenue declined slightly in 2011, but grew by 4.2% in 2012. We expect the market to stagnate for the next 2–3 years, then begin a more consistent decline.  Messaging is popular in Malaysia, accounting for 16.1% of revenue in 2012. Although it will fall as a percentage of overall revenue, we expect to see modest growth in messaging in Malaysia through the forecast period, reflecting the enduring popularity of the service with consumers.  Mobile broadband revenue will grow at a CAGR of 1.1% to reach a total of MYR2.1 billion (USD695 million) in 2018. Growth towards the end of the period will be limited by the popularity of handset data revenue, which will grow more quickly, at a CAGR of 16.2%, to account for 28.8% of total revenue in 2018. 58 Figure 57: Mobile retail revenue by service type and ASPU, Malaysia, 2009– 2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Smartphones are already the most popular way to access the Internet in Malaysia  The Internet market in Malaysia has grown substantially in recent years, and is set to continue in the same vein. The number of fixed broadband, mobile broadband and smartphone connections grew at a CAGR of 50.7% from 2009 to reach 16.9 million in 2012, and will reach 48.5 million by 2018.  Historically, fixed broadband has been the most significant means of connection, but mobile broadband and smartphones are by far the most significant means of access accounting for 80% of connections, and this will increase to 91% by 2018. Growth in the fixed sector though will continue, driven by ongoing investment in Malaysia’s national fibre broadband network.  Mobile broadband services were launched in 2006, and had 2.64 million active subscribers in 2012. We forecast that this will number will grow at a CAGR of 13.5%, to 5.6 million in 2018.  Smartphones are increasingly popular in Malaysia, and the widespread availability of relatively cheap Android handsets has helped to drive penetration in the mass market. Smartphones accounted for 30% handsets as of 2012, up from 20% in 2011, and we expect this to increase to more than 83% by 2018. This is equivalent to 79.4% of overall Internet connections, giving an idea of the importance of smartphone Internet access in Malaysia. 59 Figure 58: Broadband connections by type and mobile as a proportion of the broadband base, Malaysia, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Fixed voice has little prospect of growth, but fibre take-up is increasing rapidly in Malaysia  The fixed market in Malaysia has grown in recent years, driven by growth in both FWA and FTTH products launched by Yes 4G and the High Speed Broadband Networks programme. The incumbent, Telekom Malaysia, retains a high share of subscribers despite losing its monopoly in 1994.  The total number of fixed voice connections grew at just 0.7% per year from 2009 to 2012, to reach 4.6 million lines, and we expect growth to slow to a CAGR of 0.5% from 2013 to 2018 giving a base of 4.7 million lines in 2018.  The number of fixed broadband connections will continue to increase – penetration will reach 64% of households by 2018, up from 54% in 2012. However, growth in fixed broadband connections will slow down considerably from 26% per year between 2009 and 2012, to 3.6% per year during the next 5 years because of increased pressure on FWA from LTE.  Fixed retail broadband revenue amounted to MYR3.5 billion (USD1.13 billion) in 2012, and will reach MYR3.6 billion (USD1.18 billion) by 2018. Despite the growth in the number of lines and the switch to faster services, the greater competition from different technologies, including LTE, will have a negative impact on fixed broadband ARPU, which will decline having grown in the initial stages of take-up of newly available FTTH and FWA services. 60 Figure 59: Fixed connections by type, and voice and broadband penetration, Malaysia, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] Figure 60: Fixed retail broadband revenue by technology and ARPU, Malaysia, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Type CAGR 2009–2012 CAGR 2013–2018 Mobile voice7.0%2.5% Mobile messaging17.3%11.3% Mobile handset data33.1%22.6% Mobile broadband154.3%23.8% M2Mn/a36.8% Fixed voice and narrowband–0.3%–6.8% Fixed broadband45.8%–1.3% IPTV97.2%11.6% Business network services12.0%5.2% Total7.9%4.0% Type CAGR 2009–2012 CAGR 2013–2018 Mobile handsets7.7%7.1% Mobile broadband141.9%29.7% Fixed voice–1.8%–2.0% Fixed broadband38.4%8.8% Mobile voice will continue to dominate the telecoms market in Pakistan, with delays to 3G auctions hindering the growth of data Figure 61: Retail revenue by service type, Pakistan, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] 61 Figure 62: Growth rates of retail revenue by service type, Pakistan, 2009– 2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] Figure 63: Growth rates of connections by type, Pakistan, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Mobile penetration in Pakistan will continue its slow growth, but will reach 90% by 2018  The mobile market in Pakistan is competitive – four of the five operators has more than 10% of the overall subscriber base. Warid’s share has recently dropped below 10%, because it has lost subscribers in the last 2 years. Competition has helped to keep prices down, allowing penetration to reach almost 65% in 2012.  Growth in the mobile market more generally has been held back by poor-quality service (leading to network congestion), a lack of proper coverage and heavy taxation on mobile handsets and services.  We forecast continued slow growth to reach a penetration of 90% in 2018, amounting to 182 million SIMs, up from 117.6 million in 2012.  Pakistan’s 2.1GHz 3G auctions have been delayed since 2008, with further delays announced in January 2013. We expect 2.1GHz licences to be awarded in 2013, which will drive an increase in the number of 3G connections, to reach 38.4 million by 2018. 3G subscribers to date in Pakistan are customers of either Citycell (EV-DO) or Teletalk (3G), each of which have fewer than 1 million subscribers.  LTE will have little impact in Pakistan during the next 5 years. It will account for only 6.5% of connections by the end of the forecast period. 62 Figure 64: Mobile connections by generation, and mobile penetration, Pakistan, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 All mobile revenue streams in Pakistan will increase throughout the forecast period  Mobile retail revenue in Pakistan grew at a CAGR of 10.1% from 2009 to reach PKR254 billion in 2012 (USD2.7 billion). We forecast a slight reduction in growth to a CAGR of 6.7% during the forecast period, to reach PKR379.6 billion (USD4.1 billion) in 2018.  Mobile voice revenue contributed 84.1% of mobile retail revenue in 2012, but we forecast this to fall to 66% by 2018 because of an increased contribution from mobile data services and messaging. Voice revenue growth during 2018 will be 2.5%, to give revenue of PKR250.6 billion (USD2.7 billion).  The increase in 3G connections during the forecast period will cause high growth in mobile broadband revenue at a CAGR of 23.8%. Mobile broadband revenue will reach PKR51.5 billion (USD557.7 million) in 2018, 13.6% of total revenue.  Increased take-up of smartphones and feature phones will enable continued growth in handset data revenue, from PKR13.2 billion (USD142.5 million) in 2012 to PKR46.2 billion (USD500 million) in 2018.  Mobile ASPU in Pakistan was just PKR187 (USD2) per month in 2012. ASPU has been around this level for the last few years, which will continue until the end of the forecast period when we expect to see prices and spend decline. 63 Figure 65: Mobile retail revenue by service type and ASPU, Pakistan, 2009– 2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Pakistan’s Internet market is underdeveloped, but the introduction of 3G will increase the take-up of mobile data services  Pakistan had 8.8 million Internet connections in 2012, of which most (73%) were smartphones.  However, smartphones accounted for just 5.5% of the mobile handset base, demonstrating the low overall take-up of Internet subscriptions.  Smartphone take-up will grow at a CAGR of 32.5% during the forecast period and smartphones will account for 23.2% of handsets by 2018. This will be driven by the increased availability of 3G services and decreasing price of low-end smartphones.  The lack of 3G connectivity has limited the number of mobile broadband connections, but growth will increase when licences are awarded, to reach 4.8 million connections in 2018.  Fixed broadband connections grew sharply from 2009 to 2012 at a CAGR of 38.5%. The number of fixed broadband connections increased to 1.6 million, which is still not significant in a population of 191 million.  Fixed broadband connections will increase to 2.7 million in 2018, which will account for just 5.6% of Internet connections, demonstrating the dominance of mobile in Pakistan. 64 Figure 66: Broadband connections by type and mobile as a proportion of the broadband base, Pakistan, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Fixed broadband connections will increase in Pakistan, but fixed voice will decline because of fixed–mobile substitution  The number of fixed voice connections in Pakistan consistently declined at CAGR of –1.8% from 2009 to reach 5.7 million in 2012. We expect the slow decline to continue – to 5.1 million fixed voice connections in 2018 – because of fixed–mobile substitution.  Fixed broadband penetration is low, at just 0.9% in 2012, but will continue to grow slowly to 1.4% in 2018. This is because of the poor PSTN network and lack of competition.  Unlike in many other countries around the world, WiMAX has found a niche in Pakistan, because copper infrastructure and good-quality mobile connectivity are lacking.  The popularity of WiMAX has driven growth in fixed broadband, and overall numbers will continue to grow. However, pressure from competitive mobile offerings will drive down ARPU, and we expect this, combined with moderate growth to put pressure on overall revenue throughout the forecasts period.  Fixed broadband revenue was just PKR13.7 billion (USD148.4 million) in 2012, but will increase to PKR14.5 billion in 2018 (USD157 million) having peaked in 2014.  Cable and fibre will contribute less than 7.5% of subscribers in 2018. 65 Figure 67: Fixed connections by type, and voice and broadband penetration, Pakistan, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] Figure 68: Fixed retail broadband revenue by technology and ARPU, Pakistan, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Type CAGR 2009–2012 CAGR 2013–2018 Mobile voice3.9%0.1% Mobile messaging8.6%–0.0% Mobile handset data37.5%7.5% Mobile broadband155.5%20.4% M2MN/a32.9% Fixed voice and narrowband–11.1%–8.9% Fixed broadband18.9%6.5% IPTV255.7%60.0% Business network services10.6%3.6% Total7.7%3.3% Type CAGR 2009–2012 CAGR 2013–2018 Mobile handsets7.6%1.7% Mobile broadband136.1%22.9% Fixed voice–2.9%–1.5% Fixed broadband18.0%8.2% Mobile data and broadband revenue and connections will grow in Thailand, as fixed voice services continue to decline Figure 69: Retail revenue by service type, Thailand, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] Figure 70: Growth rates of retail revenue by service type, Thailand, 2009– 2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] Figure 71: Growth rates of connections by type, Thailand, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] 66

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 2G will be the dominant technology for mobile connections during the forecast period, continuing to account for half of all connections  AIS was the largest mobile operator in Thailand in 2012 with 41% of subscribers. Total Access Communication (DTAC) had 32% and True had 24%.  Mobile penetration in Thailand reached 113% in 2012. This is well above the regional average – Malaysia is the only other country with more than 100% mobile penetration, at 132%.  3G auctions were delayed in Thailand since 2010 because of political constraints and lack of interest from build–transfer– operate (BTO) concession issuers TOT and CAT Telecom. The telecoms regulator NBTC auctioned 3G licences in October 2012 and raised USD1.4 billion. Some controversy surrounded the auction because it raised 30% less than expected – only 2.8% more than the government’s reserve price.  Meanwhile, most operators have upgraded their networks and launched HSPA-based 3G services since 2011.  Although 3G contributes to only 14% of mobile subscribers as of 2012, it is expected to increase to 42% by 2018.  The timing for the arrival of 4G services in Thailand is uncertain because of a lack of clarity on the auctioning of the relevant spectrum. 67 Figure 72: Mobile connections by generation, and mobile penetration, Thailand, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Mobile voice revenue will be flat between 2012 and 2018, while handset data revenue will grow at a CAGR of more than 7%  Mobile voice revenue grew slowly between 2009 and 2012 to reach THB141.2 million in 2012. Mobile voice revenue is expected to remain flat from 2012 onwards and will have a CAGR of 0.1% for the period 2013–2018. In 2012, mobile voice contributed to 73% of total mobile revenue, which is forecast to fall to 59% by 2018.  Of the mobile revenue streams, M2M is forecast to grow fastest at a CAGR of 30% from 2013 to 2018. Mobile broadband revenue is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 20.4% because of the increase in 3G availability.  Mobile messaging revenue will continue to be stagnant at a negative CAGR of –0.01% during 2013–2018 because of substitution by data services and web-based forms of messaging offsetting the increase in mobile connections.  Mobile handset data revenue grew significantly between 2009 and 2012 at a CAGR of 37.5%. This surge of growth will slow down during the forecast period, but growth will continue fairly strongly at a CAGR of 7.5% during this period.  Both mobile and handset ASPU dipped between 2008 and 2010 because of the economic recession but increased between 2010–2011 and in 2012. We expect both mobile and handset ASPU to increase slightly between 2012 and 2018 because of increased data usage. 68 Figure 73: Mobile retail revenue by service type and ASPU, Thailand, 2009– 2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 The Thai government’s broadband plan and the availability of 3G services will increase broadband and smartphone penetration  Smartphone take-up increased significantly between 2008 and 2011 following the launch of 3G HSPA services by most of the main operators in Thailand such as AIS, DTAC and True. The popularity of smartphones is likely to increase between 2013 and 2018 after the 3G auctions in October 2012. Take-up is expected to increase fairly steadily at a CAGR of 15.5% during the forecast period.  Mobile broadband contributed to only 4.3% of total broadband connections in 2009, but this increased to 26.7% by 2012. This increase was driven by the network upgrades and the launch of 3G HSPA services. The Thai government’s national broadband plan – the Smart Thailand initiative – and the recently held 3G auctions will help continue the growth of mobile broadband to reach almost 47% of total broadband connections by 2018.  The Thai government launched the Smart Thailand initiative with the aim of increasing broadband penetration to 80% of population by 2015 and 95% by 2020. As part of this initiative, the government also introduced the One Tablet Per Child programme in 2012, which aims to provide tablets to all children in their first year of school in Thailand. The programme handed out 850 000 tablets in 2012, and it is expected that a further 1.7 million tablets will be handed out in 2013. 69 Figure 74: Broadband connections by type and mobile as a proportion of the broadband base, Thailand, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Fixed broadband penetration will increase in Thailand, but fixed voice penetration will continue to decrease  The number of fixed voice connections in Thailand declined at a CAGR of about –3% from 2009 to 2012, and will continue to decline at –1.5% until 2018. This can be attributed to very cheap mobile call rates leading to increased fixed–mobile substitution. Fixed minutes accounted for only 4.8% of total outgoing minutes in Thailand in 2012.  The number of fixed broadband connections increased at a CAGR of 18% between 2009 and 2012 and is forecast to increase at a CAGR of 8.2% from 2013 to 2018. Fixed broadband penetration was very low at 6.2% in 2012 and is expected to reach 10% penetration of the population by 2018.  DSL is the most popular broadband access technology in Thailand and had 3.9 million subscribers by end of 2012, which is expected to increase to 5.7 million subscribers by 2018.  Cable and FWA technologies accounted for just 2.5% and 2.1% of subscribers respectively by 2012, with both of these increasing to 4% and 2.6% respectively by 2018.  Fixed broadband ARPU declined between 2009 and 2012 at a CAGR of –0.8%, and will drop at a CAGR of –2.1% between 2013 and 2018. 70 Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, and voice and broadband penetration, Thailand, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] Figure 76: Fixed retail broadband revenue by technology and ARPU, Thailand, 2009–2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 About the authors Tom Mowat (Principal Analyst) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason’s Asia–Pacific research programme and is based in our Singapore office. Tom recently rejoined Analysys Mason from PwC, where he was a Manager in the TMT Consulting team. He has extensive expertise in fixed and mobile broadband services, strategy and forecasting, regulatory issues, cost-modelling and the particular issues affecting telecoms markets in developing regions. His previous role at Analysys Mason was within the Custom Research team, developing project-based analysis for key industry clients. Tom’s experience includes leading numerous projects for telecoms service providers, vendors, and regulatory and industry bodies, as an analyst and consultant. Tom has degrees in mathematical and particle physics from the University of Nottingham and the University of Durham. Satvik Singhania (Research Analyst) joined Analysys Mason in 2012 and works on our Asia–Pacific research programme. He is based at our Singapore office, and has a degree in Economics and Finance from the Singapore Management University. 72

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 About Analysys Mason Knowing what’s going on is one thing. Understanding how to take advantage of events is quite another. Our ability to understand the complex workings of telecoms, media and technology (TMT) industries and draw practical conclusions, based on the specialist knowledge of our people, is what sets Analysys Mason apart. We deliver our key services via two channels: consulting and research. 73 Consulting  Our focus is exclusively on TMT.  We support multi-billion dollar investments, advise clients on regulatory matters, provide spectrum valuation and auction support, and advise on operational performance, business planning and strategy.  We have developed rigorous methodologies that deliver tangible results for clients around the world. For more information, please visit www.analysysmason.com/consulting. Research  We analyse, track and forecast the different services accessed by consumers and enterprises, as well as the software, infrastructure and technology delivering those services.  Research clients benefit from regular and timely intelligence in addition to direct access to our team of expert analysts.  Our dedicated Custom Research team undertakes specialised and bespoke projects for clients. For more information, please visit www.analysysmason.com/research.

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Research from Analysys Mason We provide dedicated coverage of developments in the telecoms, media and technology (TMT) sectors, through a range of research programmes that focus on different services and regions of the world. 74 Alongside our standardised suite of research programmes, our Custom Research team undertakes specialised, bespoke research projects for clients. The dedicated team offers tailored investigations and answers complex questions on markets, competitors and services with customised industry intelligence and insights. To find out more, please visit www.analysysmason.com/research. Network Technologies SpectrumFixed NetworksWireless Networks Practices Programmes Consumer Services Fixed Broadband and Media Mobile Broadband and Devices Mobile Content and Applications Voice and Messaging Enterprise Services EnterpriseSME Strategies Telecoms Software Strategies Data programmes Application programmes Telecoms Software Forecasts Service Assurance Telecoms Software Market Shares Revenue Management Infrastructure Solutions Service FulfilmentService Delivery Platforms Customer Care MEAAPAC Regional Markets Europe European Core Forecasts Telecoms Market Matrix European Country Reports The Middle East and Africa Asia–Pacific Global Telecoms Forecasts Telecoms Software Markets Customer Experience Management Software Strategies Digital Economy Software Strategies Analytics Software Strategies Software-Controlled Networking CSP IT Strategies

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Consulting from Analysys Mason For more than 25 years, our consultants have been bringing the benefits of applied intelligence to enable clients around the world to make the most of their opportunities. 75 Our clients in the telecoms, media and technology (TMT) sectors operate in dynamic markets where change is constant. We help shape their understanding of the future so they can thrive in these demanding conditions. To do that, we have developed rigorous methodologies that deliver real results for clients around the world. Our focus is exclusively on TMT. We advise clients on regulatory matters, help shape spectrum policy and develop spectrum strategy, support multi-billion dollar investments, advise on operational performance and develop new business strategies. Such projects result in a depth of knowledge and a range of expertise that sets us apart. We help clients solve their most pressing problems, enabling them to go farther, faster and achieve their commercial objectives. To find out more, please visit www.analysysmason.com/consulting.

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Published by Analysys Mason Limited Bush House North West Wing Aldwych London WC2B 4PJ UK Tel: +44 (0)845 600 5244 Fax: +44 (0)845 528 0760 Email: research@analysysmason.com www.analysysmason.com/research Registered in England No. 5177472 © Analysys Mason Limited 2013. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means – electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise – without the prior written permission of the publisher. Figures and projections contained in this report are based on publicly available information only and are produced by the Research Division of Analysys Mason Limited independently of any client- specific work within Analysys Mason Limited. The opinions expressed are those of the stated authors only. Analysys Mason Limited recognises that many terms appearing in this report are proprietary; all such trademarks are acknowledged and every effort has been made to indicate them by the normal UK publishing practice of capitalisation. However, the presence of a term, in whatever form, does not affect its legal status as a trademark. Analysys Mason Limited maintains that all reasonable care and skill have been used in the compilation of this publication. However, Analysys Mason Limited shall not be under any liability for loss or damage (including consequential loss) whatsoever or howsoever arising as a result of the use of this publication by the customer, his servants, agents or any third party.

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013 The emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018 Research Forecast Report The emerging Asia–Pacific.

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