1. Trump, Hillary and Whole Bunch of Gas U.S. Energy Policy in April 2016 Greg Bertelsen Senior Director, Energy and Resource Policy National Association of Manufacturers

2. National Association of Manufacturers and U.S. Manufacturing Nations largest manufacturing trade association 14,000 members Represent the 12 million Americans who make things The 9 th largest economy in the world Contributes $2.17 trillion to US economy

3. Agenda—US Energy and US Energy Policy How’d we get here? Where are we? What’s next?

4. Key Points Energy is Important Politics Matter Energy Policy is Political

5. How’d We Get Here? It’s 2008… Trump’s TV Show the Apprentice debuts in January 2008 Hillary loses Iowa Caucus to Senator with populist message Natural Gas spot prices are $11.28/MMbtu

6. Coal Dominates Electricity Mix in 2008 Source: EIA

7. Coal Also Dominates Attention of Environmental Advocacy “The United States should leave its estimated 200 years' supply of coal in the ground” - Lester Brown, Earth Policy Institute (February 2008) Rulemakings impacting coal since 2008 CSAPR Utility MATS Boiler MACT GHG NSPS CPP (more on that later) And many more

8. Meanwhile, Energy Revolution Underway

9. So, Where are we now? Trump still a TV hit Hillary (almost) lost Iowa Caucus to Senator with populist message Natural gas prices ~$2.00/MMBtu (82% discount from 2008)

10. 2015 Electricity Generation: Natural Gas, Renewables Up Source: EIA

11. 2015: Total Energy Consumption Source: EIA

12. Where are we going? 2016 Election? Yes. 2015 Final Ozone Rule (Implementation 2016 and beyond) Climate remains top environmental political issue Clean Power Plan – Coal targeted again, but now, natural gas too? “By the time we get through all of my conditions, I do not think there will be many places in America where fracking will continue to take place.” –Presidential Candidate “I’m very proud that the state of Vermont banned fracking. I hope communities all over California, and all over America do the same.” –Presidential Candidate Quote 1: Hillary Clinton, March 6, 2016 Quote 2: Bernie Sanders, October 17, 2014

13. Administration’s Final Regulatory Push Final Well Control Rule (April 2016) Proposed BLM Methane Rule (January 2016) Final EPA Methane Rule for New Oil and Gas Operations (expected 2016) Data Collection for Pending EPA Methane Rule for Existing Oil and Gas Operations (April 2016) Proposed DOI Moratorium on Atlantic-coast leasing/drilling (March 2016)

14. Public Evenly Split Over Fracking In 2015, 40% of Americans said they supported fracking; 40% opposed it. Source: Gallup, March 2015

15. Key Points Energy is Important Politics Matter Energy Policy is Political

16. Questions? Greg Bertelsen Senior Director, Energy and Resource Policy National Association of Manufacturers gbertelsen@nam.org 202-637-3174