1. Meteo 415 The Lab Component

2. Today’s Objectives What makes an excellent forecaster?

3. Excellent Forecasters, 2007 Outstanding data interpreter –Decoder vs. interpreter Stellar tool box –Optimizes efficiency Defines problem Looks at Observations!

4. Decoder vs. Interpreter What are the differences between the two?

5. Where? –Point or region? When? –Short or long term? What? –Temp (hi, low?) –Wind (instantaneous, peak gust?) –Humidity –Precip (amount, type, timing?) –Cloud (amount, type, timing?) Defining the problem

6. Looks at Observations! Critical clues! Excellent forecasters find clues Examples: –Thunderstorm outflows –Lake-effect snow –Daytime high temperatures

7. “Weather” can be explained by: “w” Shortwaves –Ascent (pva) –Descent (nva) Fronts Cyclones (lows), anticyclones (highs) Buoyancy

8. Dynamic Ascent: Shortwaves Aloft: 500mbRelationship to Surface

9. Mechanical Ascent: Frontal lift

10. Buoyant Ascent: Convection Lifted Index Assesses Instability- how?

11. Relating upper levels to surface: Real case 500mb heights/vorticity1000-500 thick/SLP How do I rate shortwave intensity ?

12. Relating shortwaves to precipitation patterns 500mb heights“Observed” precip

13. Relating surface fronts to precipitation patterns 1000-500 thick/SLP Observed precip What’s causing Gulf precip?

14. Relating 500mb to Cloud Patterns 500mb heights Satellite picture What kind of satellite picture is this?

15. Similarities and Differences ? VisibleIR