1. Housing and Planning in London under the Conservative Government: Spatial impacts, social polarization and sustainable development Duncan Bowie Housing Studies Association 7th April 2016

2. Existing spatial polarisation of tenure

3. Spatial distribution of houseprices

4. Spatial distribution of house price changes

5. Most new homes are being provided in central London

6. Few new affordable homes in outer London

7. Overcrowding growing in West and Northeast London

8. Hollowing out of inner West London

9. Spatial Impact of policy changes  Abandonment of growth areas with development depending on local consent. Strong resistance to new housing development in most suburban boroughs and Home Counties. Neighbourhood Planning generally not helping. Duty to Cooperate between local authorities not working.  No central government funding for social rented housing so collapse of social rented housing programme, especially in higher cost/value areas  Planning policy changes make it very difficult for boroughs to use planning gain agreements to fund social rented homes – though some off site deals in central London.  Welfare benefit cuts forcing lower income households out of higher value areas and increasing spatial social polarisation – to be cut from £26,000 pa to £23,000

10. Housing benefit households moving to Outer London (and beyond)

11. Most of London becoming unaffordable for private tenants

12. House-Prices towards 2018

13. The 2015 London Plan  Estimate of housing requirements – 62,000 a year if backlog to be met over 10years  New capacity based target of 42,000 homes a year dependent on high density development in Opportunity Areas  The push for higher density on sites of 5 hectares or with capacity for 500 homes  Densification of suburban town centres could produce 7,000 more homes a year  Home Counties districts resist pressure to contribute to London supply deficit  Higher density and potential for higher rents/ higher values pushes up land value and housing costs

14. Impact of recent policy changes  End of Government subsidy for social rented housing – funding for affordable rented homes – averaging 65% of market rent in London.  Permitted development rights – office to residential conversions – no affordable housing, planning obligations or Community Infrastructure Levy  The 10 unit affordable housing threshold  The ‘vacant building credit’

15. The Housing and Planning Bill  Forced disposal of ‘higher value’ council homes to fund Housing association Right to Buy  Market rents for council tenants with household incomes over £40,000 a year (Govt may raise threshold and/or introduce phasing in of market rents for individual households)  Maximum 5 year tenancy for new tenants

16. Planning Reforms  Starter Homes sat up to £450,000 deemed as affordable  Councils to be required to use 20% of housing capacity for starter homes irrespective of any assessment of effective demand for product)  No planning obligations or CIL on starter homes schemes so who funds transport, social and utilities infrastructure ?  SoS has power to direct LPAs to comply and to amend adopted plan policies which do not included Starter Homes provision.

17. More on planning  SoS to take power to over-ride any planning agreement between developer and local planning authority  Alternative providers. Planning consultants to compete to provide LPA planning services

18. The Autumn statement and budget  No affordable housing programme beyond 2018 as all funding going into Starter Homes grant to private developers ( grant to fund 20% discount against market value)  London Mayor suggesting some funding for sub-market rent should be retained  Review of HCA – Should it still exist ?  City region deals-any role left for CLG ?

19. The London Mayoral Election  50% affordable housing on Mayoral land ? How can this be delivered if Mayor/TfL need to maximise disposal receipts to fund transport infrastructure  Meeting housing shortage by densification of estates: protecting existing tenants ? Private sector investment uncertain

20. What are we building and for whom ?  Focus on high density/ high rise schemes for international market – sales slowing down and backlog of unimplemented consents – 400+ towers in the development pipeline. Risk of oversupply.  Little progress with suburban infill  All candidates opposed to any development in the Green Belt

21. The spatial dimension  Transport investment (Crossrail 1 ad Crossrail2) making housing in cheaper suburbs increasingly unaffordable  Longer distance commuting not affordable by lower income working households  So where do lower income working households go and still be able to get to work ? London isn’t Paris.  Some corporate employers now subsidising housing for professionals

22. There is an alternative  Drop the Housing and Planning Bill ( excpt for the rogue landlord clauses)  Councils allocate sites for social rent and CPO at existing use value  Only give planning consent for development which meets assessed housing needs  Impose conditions on sale prices and effective occupation of all private development  LA equity stakes in all private development, to reuse receipts for transport and social infrastructure and affordable housing

23. Planning, Funding and Tax  Need for agreement on spatial planning across metropolitan city region including criteria for selection of locations for major new developments and a Green Belt review  Bring back public investment programme for social rented housing  Replace stamp duty by capital gains tax on all private residential property