1. Professor Derek Godfrey Deputy Vice Chancellor Buckinghamshire New University Technology, media + telecoms predictions

2. Predictions Unlikely to be accurate o Who predicted the internet, digital media and social media? Help us to get an idea of what may happen, but don’t rely on them Need to be updated frequently to take account of what has actually happened Can’t ask the customer – if you get it right, you will be in a very strong position – if you get it wrong, you can always try again

3. Future for laptops and desktops Other devices are replacing laptops and desk tops Smart phones now provide e-mail, internet and wide range of applications Tablets give bigger screens, more user friendly internet access, lighter and cheaper Laptops and desktops will keep a significant, but decreasing market share Number of people across the globe having smart phones, tablets, laptops or desktops will continue to grow rapidly What is the useful lifetime for personal computing devices?

4. Other issues for personal computing devices Still a wide range of operating systems o commercial advantage vs commercial risk Market leader and market follower/new entrant o Apple iPad vs HP touchpad Battery life still an issue o The more processing, the less battery life Visual experience and touch screen performance o Screen size vs portability What is the useful lifetime for personal computing devices?

5. Cloud computing Do you need own physical network/data centre? Managed service approaches o reduce capital outlay o the need for in-house technical capability o provide additional robustness and reliability o enable flexible demand management o encourage shared services Need to decide if having your own network is a USP or reduces you business flexibility?

6. Media Television remains the dominant consumer media device o High definition and large screen o Internet TV o Hard disk to provide improved user experience (simple recording, pause, replay, fast forward and watch anytime) o Integration with other home media applications (music, photos, video games and DVDs) Major changes for broadcasters o Analogue to digital, satellite, cable and internet TV Conflict in home usage – web browsing vs watching programs

7. Social Networking Continuing rapid growth o Expect number of users to grow to over 1 billion in 2011 o Users spend large amounts of time on social network sites and use it as key method of social interaction o Limited advertising revenue generated at present, but likely to grow rapidly Move into new areas o Education, business and widening demographic Opportunities to use social networking as an access to customers and business

8. Computer gaming Continuing rapid growth o New platforms and new games o Increased multiplayer/internet gaming o Free to play (Freemium) model where revenue comes from advertising, monthly subscriptions and peripherals sales Move into new areas o More portable devices o Use of smart phones and tablets for gaming Move away from dedicated consoles and off-line gaming

9. Telecommunications Role of the fixed IP transmission network o Transport over long distances o Provide cheap, reliable bandwidth o Available to multiple operators Role of fixed access network o Broadband to the home (DSL over copper) o Fibre to the kerb or fibre to the home o Expensive infrastructure – being replaced by wireless (Wi- Fi and mobile networks How many IP transmission network and fixed access network companies do you need?

10. Mobile Networks 2G, 3G, 3.5G and 4G o Major capital decisions required and the final choice will be dependent on customer density, customer bandwidth requires and customers’ desire to pay o Operates will wish to prolong the use of existing network investments, rather than starting new investment – limitations from available spectrum and current congestion on networks o Expect slow introduction of full 4G networks New network roll outs are very expensive – can’t afford to make the wrong investment decision (either too late or too soon)

11. Wi-Fi Wi-Fi complements mobile networks o Smart phones can default wi-fi for high bandwidth connection when user is not actually on the move – often the case o Wi-Fi likely to be major delivery for video applications on smart phones o Wi-Fi is relatively cheap to install o Wi-Fi hot spots can lead to customer loyalty and increased revenue from core product (eg Starbucks) Important for mobile providers to work closely with Wi-Fi providers

12. Video telephony Now a simple application o Skype or equivalent o Apple Facetime o Cisco Webex – shared desktop and business use o Many calls don’t really need video o Web cams may not be good enough for business conference usage – Cisco Tanberg and Virtual Presence Need to understand the customer requirement/demand for video telephony

13. Summary We are in a rapidly growing and changing marketplace o Strong revenue growth vs strong competion o Network Company vs Service Company o Intelligence is now in the application not the network o Operator no longer controls customer products – applications on the internet o Key role for regulator to ensure the customer is well served Every year ICT grows in importance – what are we going to do to make sure our countries get the most benefit from this growth?