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1 An econometric model for international tourism flows to Spain Applied Economics Letters, 2000, 7, 525-529.

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2 n Teresa Garín Muñoz n Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, Madrid, Spain. n e-mail: tgarin@sr.uned.es n Teodosio Pérez Amaral n Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain n e-mail: teodosio@ccee.ucm.es

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3 Outline n Abstract n I. Introduction. n II. The model and the data. n III. Empirical results. n IV. Conclusions.

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5 I. Introduction. n 1997, tourism, 10.5% GDP n USA 77 BILLION DOLLARS n ITALY 30 n SPAIN 28 n Forecasting studies, Spain: n Almagro (1979), n Padilla (1988)

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6 International demand studies n Elasticities, policies, scenarios, n Bakkal, 1991; n Loebb, 1982; n Summary, 1987; n Syriopoulos and Sinclair, 1993; n Witt and Martin, 1987.

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7 Outline n Abstract n I. Introduction. n II. The model and the data. n III. Empirical results. n IV. Conclusions.

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8 II. The model and the data. n We use an unbalanced panel data set consisting of 17 routes of tourism over a period of 11 years (1985-1995). n Annual data.

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9 TABLE 1, % part. by country

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10 Determinants of tourism n income, n price, n exchange rate, n transportation costs, n population,

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11 n LTOUR it = α i + β 1 LGNP it + β 2 LEX it + β 3 LPR it + β 4 D91 t + u it n β 1, β 2 > 0 n β 3, β 4 < 0

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12 n Where the subindex i is for countries, t is for time and L denotes natural logarithms (log). And: –L TOUR i t is the log of the number of nights spent in Spanish hotels by tourists from country i during year t. In per capita terms.

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13 L GNP i t log of the Gross National Product (in PPP dollars) of country i during year t. Expressed in per capita terms. –L EX i t log of the number of pesetas per unit of currency of country i during year t. –L PR t log of the price index of tourist services in Spain divided by the CPI of each country. –D91 t dummy variable for the Gulf War that takes the value 1 in 1991 and 0 elsewhere. –u i t Random error term.

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14 Outline n Abstract n I. Introduction. n II. The model and the data. n III. Empirical results. n IV. Conclusions.

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15 3. EMPIRICAL RESULTS n Selected Model: within. n Income elasticity: 1.41. n Exchange rate elasticity: 0.50. n Price elasticity: -0.30. n D91: -0.15.

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16 Outline n Abstract n I. Introduction. n II. The model and the data. n III. Empirical results. n IV. Conclusions.

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17 IV. Conclusions n Income, n Price, n Exchange rate, n Gulf War, n Expo and Olimpic Games, 92.

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18 Other possible factors n Age distribution, n Income distribution, n Quality, n Price of alternative destinations, n Education, n Leisure and business,

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19 However n Useful for assessing scenarios, n As a starting point, n More desagregated data. n Comparable to many international studies.

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