Presentation on theme: "1 An econometric model for international tourism flows to Spain Applied Economics Letters, 2000, 7, 525-529."— Presentation transcript:
1 An econometric model for international tourism flows to Spain Applied Economics Letters, 2000, 7, 525-529.
2 n Teresa Garín Muñoz n Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, Madrid, Spain. n e-mail: email@example.com n Teodosio Pérez Amaral n Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain n e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org
3 Outline n Abstract n I. Introduction. n II. The model and the data. n III. Empirical results. n IV. Conclusions.
10 Determinants of tourism n income, n price, n exchange rate, n transportation costs, n population,
11 n LTOUR it = α i + β 1 LGNP it + β 2 LEX it + β 3 LPR it + β 4 D91 t + u it n β 1, β 2 > 0 n β 3, β 4 < 0
12 n Where the subindex i is for countries, t is for time and L denotes natural logarithms (log). And: –L TOUR i t is the log of the number of nights spent in Spanish hotels by tourists from country i during year t. In per capita terms.
13 L GNP i t log of the Gross National Product (in PPP dollars) of country i during year t. Expressed in per capita terms. –L EX i t log of the number of pesetas per unit of currency of country i during year t. –L PR t log of the price index of tourist services in Spain divided by the CPI of each country. –D91 t dummy variable for the Gulf War that takes the value 1 in 1991 and 0 elsewhere. –u i t Random error term.
14 Outline n Abstract n I. Introduction. n II. The model and the data. n III. Empirical results. n IV. Conclusions.
15 3. EMPIRICAL RESULTS n Selected Model: within. n Income elasticity: 1.41. n Exchange rate elasticity: 0.50. n Price elasticity: -0.30. n D91: -0.15.
16 Outline n Abstract n I. Introduction. n II. The model and the data. n III. Empirical results. n IV. Conclusions.
17 IV. Conclusions n Income, n Price, n Exchange rate, n Gulf War, n Expo and Olimpic Games, 92.
18 Other possible factors n Age distribution, n Income distribution, n Quality, n Price of alternative destinations, n Education, n Leisure and business,
19 However n Useful for assessing scenarios, n As a starting point, n More desagregated data. n Comparable to many international studies.
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