1. Population Chapter 2

2. A.D. 2000 A.D. 1000 A.D. 1 1000 B.C. 2000 B.C. 3000 B.C. 4000 B.C. 5000 B.C. 6000 B.C. 7000 B.C. 1+ million years 8 7 6 5 2 1 4 3 Old Stone Age New Stone Age Bronze Age Iron Age Middle Ages Modern Age Black Death—The Plague 9 10 11 12 A.D. 3000 A.D. 4000 A.D. 5000 1800 1900 1950 1975 2000 2100 Future Billions Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998). World Population Growth Through History

3. Number of years to add each billion (year)‏ All of Human History (1800)‏ 130 (1930)‏ 30 (1960)‏ 15 (1975)‏ 12 (1987)‏ 12 (1999)‏ 14 (2013)‏ 14 (2027)‏ 21 (2048)‏ Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005. World Population Growth, in Billions

4. Millions Annual Increase in World Population Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

5. Billions Less Developed Regions More Developed Regions Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005. Growth in More, Less Developed Countries

6. 2/3rds of the world's population growth that occurred in the last decade happened in Asia. Virtually all of the world's increase in population is happening in LDCs The doubling-time has gotten longer but the world's population is larger. What are the implications of this statement?

7. Trends in Population Growth Worldwide Population Increase and Growth Rate, Five-Year Periods Millions Percent increase per year Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

8. Notes on Trends in Population Growth Worldwide Over the period 1985-1995, the population growth rate declined (a reflection of declining fertility), yet millions of people were added to the world’s population (which peaked around 1985, when 87 million people were added each year). From 2000 on, the growth rate will continue to decline. Between 2015 and 2020, we will still be adding 72 million people each year. Why? Because the generation of women now having their children is very large as the result of high fertility in their mothers’ and grandmothers’ generations.

9. World Population Clock 1371512154Minute 197,004217,9713,383221,354Day 71,906,58779,559,3111,234,90780,794,218Year Less Developed Countries (less China)‏ Less Developed Countries More Developed CountriesWorld Natural Increase per 2005 Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.

11. 0-14 is considered dependent 15-64 working 65-higher dependent again In a stage 2 country ½ are dependent by comparison to 1/3 in a stage 4. In a stge 2 the young outnumber the old by 10:1 What TFR produces zero population growth?

12. Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths. The Classic Stages of Demographic Transition

13. Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1,000 population Natural Increase Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005. Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide

14. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau Birth rates and death rates are declining around the world. Overall economic development, public health programs, and improvements in food production and distribution, water, and sanitation have led to dramatic declines in death rates. And women now have fewer children than they did in the 1950s. Nevertheless, if death rates are lower than birth rates, populations will still grow. Also, it is possible for absolute numbers of births to increase even when birth rates decline. Notes on Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide

15. 10 Places With the Lowest Total Fertility Worldwide Average number of children per woman, 2000-2005 Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

16. Number of Women 15 to 49 Billions Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005. Women of Childbearing Age

17. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau The number of women of childbearing age more than doubled between 1950 and 1990: from 620 million to over 1.3 billion. Their numbers are expected to reach over 2 billion by the middle of this century, according to the UN’s medium projections. The growing population of women in their childbearing years and their male partners will contribute to future world population growth, even if levels of childbearing continue to decline. Notes on Women of Childbearing Age

18. Worldwide Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005. Women of Childbearing Age and Fertility

19. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau The number of women in their childbearing years has increased since the 1950s and is projected to continue to increase to 2050. The number of children per woman has declined since the 1950s and is projected to continue to decline. Even though women have on average fewer children than their mothers, the absolute number of babies being born continues to increase because of the increases in the total number of women of childbearing age. Notes on Women of Childbearing Age and Fertility

20. Decline or Growth, 2005-2050 Percent Russia (1.4)‏ Italy (1.3)‏ Trinidad & Tobago (1.6)‏ Armenia (1.3)‏ China (1.6)‏ Country (average number of children per woman)‏ Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet. Population in Countries With Low Fertility Thailand (1.7)‏

21. Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005 Millions Less Developed Regions More Developed Regions MaleFemaleMaleFemale 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Age Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005. Age Distribution of the World’s Population

22. Where in the World do People Live and Why? Key Question:

23. Many Ways of Measuring Population: Population Density – measure of total population relative to land size (arithmetic population density).

24. World Population Density

25. Physiologic Population Density – number of people per unit area of agriculturally productive land (takes this map into account).

26. Physiologic Population Density Luxor, Egypt Egypt’s arable lands are along the Nile River Valley. Moving away from the river a few blocks, the land becomes sandy and wind-sculpted.

27. Dot Map of World Population – On this map, one dot represents 100,000 people Population Distribution – Descriptions of locations on the Earth’s surface where individuals or groups (depending on the scale) live.

28. World Population Distribution and Density East Asia - ¼ of world population here South Asia - bound by the Himalayas and a desert in Pakistan Europe - population is concentrated in cities North America - megalopolis

29. Populations are falling in some parts of the world. How will Figure 2.5 look different 50 years from now? If you were updating this textbook in 50 years, where would the largest population clusters in the world be?

30. Why do Populations Rise or Fall in Particular Places? Key Question:

31. A Population Bomb? Malthus (early 1800s) worried about population growing exponentially and resources growing linearly. Ehrlich (1960s) warned of a population bomb because the world’s population was outpacing food production.

33. World Population Growth – Rate of natural increase (does not take into account immigration and emigration).

34. Today, the pace of world population growth is slowing. Where have Total Fertility Rates (TFRs) fallen below replacement level and why?

35. Population Growth in India Significant demographic variations occur within countries. –In India, growth rates are higher in the east and northeast.

36. Why do Growth Rates Vary in India? 1960s population planning program 1970s country began forced sterilization program for men with 3 or more children. –22.5 million men were sterilized. 2004 state of Uttar Pradesh began guns for sterilization program. Today, most states use advertising and persuasion to lower birth rates.

37. Maharashtra, India. A sign reads “free family planning sterlization operation” closed in 1996.

38. The Demographic Transition in Great Britain Studied the change in birth rates, death rates, and natural growth rates over the course of British industrialization. Found a transition occurred when death rates decline and then birth rates decline, resulting in a low or sustained growth rate.

39. World Birth Rate – number of births in a year per 1,000 people.

40. World Mortality Rate – number of deaths in a year per 1,000 people.

41. The Demographic Transition

42. Stage 1: Low Growth Stage 2: High Growth Stage 3: Moderate Growth Stage 4: Low Growth or Stationary Stationary population level (SPL)?

43. Examine Appendix B at the end of your textbook. Study the growth rate column. Which countries have the highest growth rates? Determine what stage of the demographic transition these countries are in, and hypothesize what may lead them to the next stage.

44. Why does Population Composition Matter? Key Question:

45. Population Composition Population Composition is concerned with: –Gender distribution –Age distribution within a country, region, or place.

46. Population Pyramids – Charts that show the percentages of each age group in the total population, divided by gender. For poorer countries, the chart is shaped like a pyramid. Infant mortality rates are high, life expectancy is shorter.

47. In poorer countries, Infant Mortality Rates are usually high, which is reflected in the pyramid shape.

48. In poorer countries, Life Expectancy is usually shorter, which is also reflected in the pyramid shape.

49. Affect of AIDS on population pyramid for South Africa. Predicted population for 2035, without and with AIDS. With AIDS, looks like a population “chimney.”

50. AIDS is leaving large numbers of AIDS orphans.

51. AIDS is creating large numbers of AIDS care-givers. Drawing by a Pokot boy in Kenya, the drawing shows him working in the fields and taking care of his family cattle in order to assist his sick family members.

52. Population Pyramids – Charts that show the percentages of each age group in the total population, divided by gender. For wealthier countries, the chart is shaped like a lopsided vase. Population is aging, TFRs are declining.

53. Age Structure of a Population The populations of many countries are aging. - eg. Europe - eg. Japan Photo credit: H.J. de Blij Bordeaux, France

54. Aging Populations To replace the population, TFR must be 2.1. - TFR in Bologna, Italy is 0.8 - Why are women having fewer children? What are the impacts of an aging population on a country? What are the “solutions” to an aging population?

55. Longer Life Expectancies typically mean higher rates of chronic diseases.

56. In the United States, the national infant mortality rate (IMR) is 7.0. That number represents an average for the country. Think about the differences in IMR in the United States across regions, ethnicities, social classes, and other sectors.

57. How do Governments Affect Population Change? Key Question:

58. Government Population Policies Expansive Population Policies - Encourages population growth. Eugenic Population Policies - Favors one racial or cultural sector over others. Restrictive Population Policies - range from toleration of unapproved birth control to outright prohibition of large families.

59. China’s One Child Policy What are some of the limitations, unintended consequences, and contradictions found in government policies toward population growth?

60. When studying government policies on population, one of the most important things to remember is unintended consequences. Choose one country in the world where women have little access to education and are disempowered. Consider the previous section of the chapter on age composition, and determine how restrictive population policies in this country will alter the population composition of the country.