Presentation on theme: "Economic value of sustainable fisheries"— Presentation transcript:
1 Economic value of sustainable fisheries Rupert Crillynef (the new economics foundation) and OCEAN2012
2 Overview Economic potential of fish stocks Report: Jobs Lost at SeaHow fish are caught matters:Report: Value Slipping through the NetConcluding remarksNB: All data presented are official or calculations based on official or academic data. Full explanations, lists of materials and methods, results and references can be found on the nef website.
3 We’ve all seen the graphs that look like this… Time trends of community biomass in oceanic (a–i) and shelf (j–m) ecosystems. Relative biomass estimates from the beginning of industrialized ﬁshing (solid points) are shown with superimposed ﬁtted curves from individual maximum-likelihood ﬁts (solid lines) and empirical Bayes predictions from a mixed-model ﬁt (dashed lines).Biomass of large predatory fish today is only about 10% of pre-industrial levelsMyers & Worm (2003), Nature
4 To the environment To people To the economy Costs of overfishing Ecosystems at risk (instability, collapse, etc)Irreversible loss (biodiversity)To peopleFood securityLivelihoods at riskTo the economyLoss of wealth (lost rents, jobs)Fishing industry at risk4
5 Overfishing is a bad economic deal FAO/World Bank estimate the annual cost of overfishing at US$50 billion, totalling US$2 trillion over the last three decades. UK catches for cod, whiting and haddock could be five, four and three times bigger if stocks were allowed to recover, with the potential to increase economic gains ten-fold to more than £500m.5
6 Overfishing and the jobs that never were Jobs Lost at Sea:Overfishing and the jobs that never wereOur report studied the productive potential of fish stocks, and compared this to their current performanceOverfishing is defined relative to MSYA stock can be sustainably fished but still be below MSY. This too is costly in production terms6
7 Overfishing and the jobs that never were Jobs Lost at Sea:Overfishing and the jobs that never wereOur report studied the productive potential of fish stocks, and compared this to their current performanceWhich fish stocks?43 spread across the North East Atlantic, including multiple cod, haddock, herring and sole stocks (note: excludes all Mediterranean stocks)There are more than 150 fish stocks in the EU7
8 Difference between current and potential landings for all stocks Estimating economic costs - 1Difference between current and potential landings for all stocksLandings in 2010 vs MSYResults:8
9 Value this difference Results: Estimating economic costs - 2 Using a price per tonne for each stock, on a regional basisResults:
10 Jobs supported per country Estimating economic costs - 3Jobs supported per countryFishingProcessingResults:
13 Rebuild stocks or depend on taxpayer subsidies?
14 Managing scarce resources Public ownership of the resource……means the public should gain from its exploitationFisheries management should seek to deliver positive net returns to societyBut how are the greatest benefits to be delivered?Broaden focus from economic performance to include social and environmental factors
15 How fish are caught matters In an era of scarce natural resources, the question of who exploits the resource for public benefit is crucial because this determines the future of the stockAccess criteria offer a viable solutionEnvironmental criteriaSelective gearMinimise bycatchMinimise ecosystem impactsSocial criteriaEmploymentImprove food securityEconomic criteriaLoss of wealth (lost rents, jobs)SubsidiesFishing industry resilienceNB all relative because this will promoteperpetual competition15
16 Case study of an overfished stock: North Sea Cod ICES areas 27.IVa-c
17 Compare gear type to see which have the highest net societal values ObjectivesCompare gear type to see which have the highest net societal valuesThere are many factors to consider, but we look at a sample:Economic: revenues, costs & subsidiesEnvironmental: discards & GHG emissionsSocial: employmentBut there are many others:CommunitiesHistoric and cultural valueStock sustainability (i.e. the impact of removing one tonne from the stock depends on the gear)
18 The main gears targeting cod in the North Sea are gillnets and trawls 18
19 Gear selectivity Proportion of catch (by numbers) Landings Discards In numbers, not tonnes
20 Results Specific to cod fishing, attributed proportionally Presented on a per tonne basisBy categories: Gillnets 0-12m, Trawls 0-12m, 12-24m, 24-40m, >40m
21 Fuel & direct subsidies Largest vessels receive most subsidies
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