1. Voter ID Laws, Politics, and the Public Paul R. Brewer Director, Center for Political Communication University of Delaware

2. Research on Voter ID Laws Why do states pass (or not pass) voter ID laws, and which legislators vote for them? Why do members of the public support (or oppose) voter ID laws? Which members of the public do voter ID laws burden the most? What impact (if any) do voter ID laws have on voter turnout?

3. Why Do States Pass Voter ID? Bentele & O’Brien (2013): 2006-2011 data Which states propose voter ID laws? – Higher % of R legislators + electorally competitive – Higher % of African American voters and turnout Which states pass voter ID laws? – Higher % of R legislators + electorally competitive – Higher % of African American voters and turnout

4. Which Legislators Vote for Voter ID? Hicks et al. (2016): 2001-2012 data R legislators > D legislators …. especially African American and/or Southern Ds Legislators who face more electoral competition % of African American voters in legislative district – D legislators: Higher % = more likely to vote against – R legislators: Higher % = more likely to vote for

5. Public Opinion about Voter ID Research with David Wilson Study 1: A national telephone survey in 2012 Study 2: A national Internet survey in 2012 Study 3: Two Delaware surveys in 2013, 2014

6. Study 1: National Phone Survey N = 906 U.S. residents (Cell + landline) May/June 2012 Margin of error: +/- 3.9%

7. Familiarity with Voter ID Laws How familiar are you with the issue of voter ID laws? Are you … 2012 CPC National Agenda Poll

8. How Common is Voter Fraud “If you had to say, how common or rare is voting fraud during the typical election?” 2012 CPC National Agenda Poll 47% 42%

9. Who Is Most Likely To Perceive Fraud? Republicans, relative to Democrats Conservatives, relative to Liberals Whites who score high on racial resentment, relative to white who score low

10. Racial Resentment “I resent any special considerations that Africans Americans receive because it’s unfair to other Americans.” “Special considerations for African Americans place me at an unfair disadvantage because I have done nothing to harm them.” “African Americans bring up race only when they need to make an excuse for their failure.”

11. Perceptions of Fraud are Racialized

12. Support for Voter ID Laws “Voter ID laws require individuals to show a form of government issued identification when they attempt to vote … Do you strongly favor, favor, oppose, or strongly oppose voter ID laws?” 2012 CPC National Agenda Poll

13. Who Supports Voter ID Laws? African Americans are less likely to do so, BUT still a majority do. Liberals and Democrats are less likely to do so, BUT still a majority do. Whites who score low on racial resentment are less likely to do so, BUT still a majority do.

14. Information Effects on Support Familiarity with voter ID laws – Conservatives: More familiar = more supportive – Liberals: More familiar = less supportive – Suggests Americans follow party leaders Media use – Fox News viewers more supportive than others – No other forms of media use related to support

15. Framing Experiment 2012 CPC National Agenda Poll “What is your opinion? Do you strongly favor, favor, oppose, or strongly oppose voter ID laws?” Supporters of voter ID laws argue they are necessary to keep people who aren’t eligible to vote from voting. Supporters of voter ID laws argue they are necessary to keep people from voting multiple times. Opponents of voter ID laws argue they can actually prevent people who are eligible to vote from voting. Opponents of voter ID laws argue they are unnecessary because voter fraud is very rare. No Frame (Baseline)

16. (Some) Frames Matter “What is your opinion? Do you strongly favor, favor, oppose, or strongly oppose voter ID laws?” Baseline 2012 CPC National Agenda Poll

17. Public Reaction to the Study News media coverage—particularly of the link between racial attitudes and support for voter ID laws Potential criticism: Correlation doesn’t necessarily equal causation

18. Study 2: National Internet Survey N = 1,436 U.S. residents September 2012 Demographically representative of public

19. The Experiment Question about support for voter ID laws Random assignment to 1 of 3 conditions – Image of African American voter – Image of white voter – No image with question Analysis of 1,020 white respondents

21. Another Look at Framing

22. Study 3: Two Delaware Surveys N = 902 DE residents each (Cell + landline) September 2013 and September 2014 Margin of error: +/- 3.9%

23. The Experiment What is your opinion? Do you strongly favor, mostly favor, mostly oppose, or strongly oppose voter ID laws? Control Version Opponents of voter ID laws argue they will prevent people who are eligible to vote from voting. Framed Version Opponents of voter ID laws argue they will prevent people who are eligible to vote from voting, and that these laws will affect [elderly/college aged] voters particularly hard. Age Frame Opponents of voter ID laws argue they will prevent people who are eligible to vote from voting, and that these laws will affect [African American/Hispanic] voters particularly hard. Race/Ethnicity Frame

24. (Some) Frames and Groups Matter Wilson and Brewer (2016) “What is your opinion? Do you strongly favor, favor, oppose, or strongly oppose voter ID laws?” Baseline

25. Who Is Burdened by Voter ID? Less access to IDs among poor and non-white citizens (Barreto et al., 2009; Hershey, 2009; Sobel & Smith, 2009) Law applied disproportionately to African American and Hispanic voters (Atkeson et al., 2010; Cobb et al., 2012)

26. What Impact (If Any) on Turnout? No consistent evidence of overall or disproportionate effects on turnout (Alvarez et al., 2008; Erikson & Minnite, 2009; Hood & Bullock, 2012; Mycoff et al., 2009; Vercellotti & Anderson 2009) One potential explanation: Voter ID laws disenfranchise, but also mobilize by angering Democrats (Valentino & Neuner, 2016)

27. Conclusions Partisanship, race, and competition shape the introduction and passage of voter ID laws Partisanship/ideology, race, and information shape public opinion about voter ID laws The impact of voter ID laws is less clear