1. Drug Proliferation in Bulgaria 2002-2007 Center for the Study of Democracy June 2007

2. The survey, analysis and assessment of the problem Supply and demand survey Supply and demand survey First national representative population survey, December 2002 – January 2003 First national representative population survey, December 2002 – January 2003 Regular victimization surveys in 2005, 2006 and 2007 Regular victimization surveys in 2005, 2006 and 2007

3. Use by drug type 2002-2004 35,000 40,000 50,000 30,000 2,000 Amphetamines Pot Heroin 15,000 – 25,000 Cocaine “have used“ (lifetime prevalence) recreational drug use regular drug use 100,000 problem drug use

4. Drug dealing 2003 3 – 4 tiers of dealing 3 – 4 tiers of dealing

5. Territories covered by drug barons 2003

6. The post-2003 decline of the heroin market Survey among heroin addicts, 2003 and 2005 New heroin users Practical absence of heroin use up to 1990 Heroin use peak

7. Reasons for heroin use decline Society/children understand the risks Society/children understand the risks Demographic factors Demographic factors Many crime leaders have been pushed out of the market (assassinated, left the country, withdrew from business) Many crime leaders have been pushed out of the market (assassinated, left the country, withdrew from business)

8. Surviving and active drug barons

9. Reduction of street dealers Declining quality of heroin supplies Declining quality of heroin supplies Sharp increase in methadone programs enrollment after 2005 Sharp increase in methadone programs enrollment after 2005 Emergence of alternative treatments, e.g. Substitol and MST Emergence of alternative treatments, e.g. Substitol and MST Access to rehab communes abroad Access to rehab communes abroad Result – long-time heroin users no longer involved in street dealing, as they have easy access to their dose and the overall number of heroin users is small Result – long-time heroin users no longer involved in street dealing, as they have easy access to their dose and the overall number of heroin users is small

10. Proliferation 2006 Top-level barons have left Bulgaria Top-level barons have left Bulgaria The number of street dealers has fallen (about 10% of long-time heroin users take part in or help the dealing process) The number of street dealers has fallen (about 10% of long-time heroin users take part in or help the dealing process)

11. Decline of access to the four main drug types

12. Use by drug type 2007 40 000 60 000 70,000 30,000 10,000 Аmphetamines Pot Heroin 10,000 – 15,000 Cocaine 150,000 – 160,000 “have used” (lifetime prevalence) 60,000 recreational drug use regular drug use 2.5% as against 16% in the Czech Republic problem drug use

13. Increased number of users clashes with harder access Greater number of people who have used, recreational use growing Greater number of people who have used, recreational use growing Smaller number of heroin addicts work as dealers Smaller number of heroin addicts work as dealers Smaller number of night clubs used as dealing spots, as business concerns and competition grow Smaller number of night clubs used as dealing spots, as business concerns and competition grow

14. 4 types of dealing networks

15. New trends Local markets proliferation – Sofia, Varna, Plovdiv, Burgas and smaller towns Local markets proliferation – Sofia, Varna, Plovdiv, Burgas and smaller towns Growth in soft drugs use in 2003-2005 Growth in soft drugs use in 2003-2005 Growth in amphetamines used mostly in larger cities (led by Sofia and Burgas, later followed by Plovdiv, Blagoevgrad, Veliko Tarnovo) Growth in amphetamines used mostly in larger cities (led by Sofia and Burgas, later followed by Plovdiv, Blagoevgrad, Veliko Tarnovo) Growth in cocaine use (1%= 65,000) Growth in cocaine use (1%= 65,000)