1. The WCRP strategic framework 2005-2015: Coordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth System (COPES) Peter Lemke (AWI), David Carson (WMO) and members of JSC for WCRP (presented by Sergey Gulev, IORAS)

2. WCRP Domains ACSYS SPARC GEWEX TOGA WOCE

3. WCRP Domains CliC SPARC GEWEX CLIVAR AOPC OOPC WGNE WGSF WGCM

4. COPE – Climate System Observation and Prediction Experiment COPS – Climate Observation and Prediction Strategy COPES – Coordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth System PROBES – Prediction and Observation of the Earth System.......................... r e j e c t e d

5. COPES Where is the COPES in WCRP?

6. WCRP COPES (2005-2020) Coordinated Observation and Prediction of Climate System Problems of predictability Initial state – quantitative, adequate description in terms of statistical moments Long-term predictability of the relatively short-term predictability skills – observing the state of the system for “good” and “bad” periods Predictability of PDFs - PDFs themselves should be known on a quantitative level Reasonable ranges for the analysis of ensemble forecasts

7. AIM of COPES To facilitate analysis & prediction of Earth system variability & change for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit & value to society ORGANIZATION of COPES Limited time task forces strongly connected to the long-term WCRP programmes

8. Task Force on Seasonal Prediction (TFSP): Recognizing the importance of seasonal prediction as a specific objective under COPES, the JSC established a limited-term Task Force on Seasonal Prediction. This task force draws on expertise in all WCRP core projects (CLIVAR, GEWEX, CliC and SPARC), WGNE and WGCM.CLIVARGEWEXCliCSPARCWGNEWGCM Terms of Reference: Determine the extent to which seasonal prediction of the global climate system is possible and useful in all regions of the globe with currently available models and data. This activity necessarily includes assessing predictability at the appropriate temporal and spatial scales, and how climate change might affect seasonal predictability and actual prediction; Identify the current limitations of climate system models and observational data sets used to determine seasonal predictability and to produce useful seasonal forecasts. Such an assessment should also identify the current observational and modelling barriers to producing seamless weekly to decadal predictions; Develop a coordinated plan for pan-WCRP climate-system, retrospective, seasonal- forecasting experiments.

9. Monsoons Challenge: The monsoon systems are manifested as land-atmosphere- ocean coupled systems, and they exhibit a variety of time and space scales that are governed by complex physical processes and their interactions. Given the importance of the monsoons in driving the energy and water cycle, improving model physics in monsoon regions will result in better models for other applications such as global change, and water resource assessments. Background in WCRP: Under WCRP, CLIVAR has conducted studies on seasonal, inter-annual and decadal variability of the monsoons, and mainly focusing on their atmosphere-ocean interactions. Alternatively, GEWEX has promoted regional and continental-scale monsoon studies as part of the continental-scale energy and water cycle experiments (CSEs), which mainly focus on land-atmosphere interactions. WCRPCLIVARGEWEX

10. Understanding Sea-level Rise and Variability The JSC at its meeting in 2005, agreed to hold a sea level as the COPES activity to bring together all relevant WCRP science with a view to identifying uncertainties and research and observational activities for narrowing these uncertainties. The activity will include contributions from CLIVAR (ocean thermal expansion), CliC (glacier and ice sheet contributions), GEWEX (terrestrial water storage) and WGCM (coupled climate modelling). JSCCLIVARCliCGEWEX WGCM Proposed Objectives: Given the present and projected future rates of global sea-level rise, and the associated variability ranging from long timescales ( i.e., decades to centuries, e.g., due to climate change) to short timescales ( i.e., hourly to daily, e.g., due to storm surges): Identify the factors contributing to the observed sea level rise and variability. Organize a systematic attack on the error budget. Identify the major sources of uncertainty for each and what can be done to reduce these uncertainties?

11. FAQs: Whether COPES is going to replace WCRP? No, COPES is not a programme, but a strategic framework for WCRP programmes, the planning instrument Why WCRP core-programmes and WGs cannot serve effectively without COPES? COPES will identify multiprogram targets on which they can concentrate, and, thus, will provide effective feedbacks between WCRP CPs and WGs

12. Historical marine climate data and COPES SEASONAL PREDICTIONS – high quality SST on different space-time resolutions, error assessment in different gridded products MONSOONs – regional products, precipitation over sea, SST SEA LEVEL – T,S (subsurface), SST, SLP, winds, fluxes, E-P, long time scales, identification of time-dependent biases Proposals for future COPES consolidated activities

13. Potentially most valuable contributions of MARCDAT community to COPES  ICOADS….. ICOADS  VOS flux climatologies updates, new parameters, E-P of a particular value  Blended SST products  Long-term times series of daily SLP  High resolution winds, e.g. FSU  Buoy time series

14. WCRP / COPES Support Unit IPSL Université Pierre et Marie Curie Tour 46, Office n° 2 Case 101, 4 Place Jussieu 75252 Paris Cedex 05 – France Tel.: +33 (0)1 44 27 21 82 Fax: +33 (0)1 44 27 21 81 E-mail: copes@ipsl.jussieu.fr Web: http://copes.ipsl.jussieu.fr