1. The Economic Outlook & the Global Financial Crisis Tasmanian Economic Forum Tony McDonald 4 December 2009

2. 2 Outline Pre-crisis Economic & Financial Market Conditions The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis The Policy Response to the Financial Crisis The Economic Outlook Tasmania and the Crisis Medium term challenges and pressures

3. 3 Chart 1: World Economic Growth Source: IMF and Treasury.

4. 4 Chart 2: Merchandise World Trade Source: World Trade Organization (WTO)

5. 5 Chart 3: US & Australia Stock Prices Source: Thomson Reuters

6. 6 Chart 4: Corporate Bond Spreads Note: Find data that shows narrowing of spread, then widening, and then gradual reduction. Source: Bloomberg.

7. 7 Chart 5: Commodity Price Index Note: To be changed to RBA Commodity Price Index Source: Reserve Bank of Australia.

8. 8 Chart 6: Terms of Trade Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5302.0 and Treasury. Note: Only latest forecast needed

9. 9 Chart 7: Industrial Production Note: Other East Asia* excludes Vietnam, Hong Kong, China and Japan. Source: Relevant National Statistical Agencies and Treasury calculations. United Stateseuro area China Other East Asia and Japan

10. 10 Chart 8: IMF 2009 GDP Growth Advanced World Source: International Monetary Fund.

11. 11 Chart 9: IMF research on dynamics of recession and recovery Source: International Monetary Fund. Duration Amplitude

12. 12 Chart 10: Official Cash Rate Source: Reserve Bank of Australia and Treasury.

13. 13 Chart 11: Interest Rates Source: Reserve Bank of Australia and Treasury.

14. 14 Chart 12: Exchange Rates Source: Reserve Bank of Australia.

15. 15 Chart 13: Composition of stimulus Source: Treasury.

16. 16 Chart 14: Estimated Impact of Stimulus: GDP Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5206.0 and Treasury. Forecasts

17. 17 Chart 15: Estimated Impact of Stimulus: unemployment rate Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202.0 and Treasury. Forecasts

18. 18 Chart 16: Contribution of fiscal stimulus to GDP Growth Source: Treasury.

19. 19 Chart 17: International Comparison of GDP growth (year to June 2009) Source: International Monetary Fund.

20. 20 Chart 18: Unemployment rate Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202.0, Thomson Reuters and Treasury. Note: Need to include OECD average

21. 21 Chart 19: Confidence BusinessesConsumers Source: Westpac-Melbourne Institute, National Australia Bank, DX and OECD.

22. 22 Chart 20: Retail Trade in Australia and major advanced economies Source: ABS Catalogue Number 8501.0 and Thomson Reuters.

23. 23 Chart 21: Australian Retail Trade Source: ABS Catalogue Number 8501.0.

24. 24 Chart 22: Construction Work Done Source: ABS Catalogue Number 8755.0.

25. 25 Chart 23: China GDP Source: CEIC China database and Treasury..

26. 26 Chart 24: GDP growth Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5206.0 and Treasury.

27. 27 Chart 25: Domestic Final Demand Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5206.0 and Treasury.

28. 28 Chart 26: Unemployment rate Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202.0.

29. 29 Chart 27: Trend Unemployment Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202.0.

30. 30 Chart 28: Gross Household disposable income per capita (current prices) Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5220.0.

31. 31 Chart 29: Employment to Population Ratio Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202.0.

32. 32 Chart 30: Full Time Employment to Population Ratio Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202.0.

33. 33 Chart 31: Observed Changes in Rainfall Reliability Source: Bureau of Rural Sciences.

34. 34 Chart 32: Population settlement patterns Source: Center for International Earth Science Information Network 2005, Columbia University;and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT). Gridded Population of the World,Version 3. Palisades, NY: CIESIN, Columbia University.

35. 35 Chart 33: China, India Convergence Source: The Conference Board Total Economy Database, IMF and Treasury.

36. The Economic Outlook & the Global Financial Crisis Tasmanian Economic Forum Tony McDonald 4 December 2009