1. THE SPIRAL OF SILENCE AND THE ASYLUM CRISIS IN EUROPE BENGT JOHANSSON & TOMAS ODÉN

3. The asylum crisis in the Swedish context Sweden have (had) a generous asylum regime – “open-door policy” Swedes are more positive to immigrants and welcoming refugees compared to citizens in the rest of Europe 10 000 refugees arrived every week to Sweden in the fall of 2015 Official estimates claimed 190 000 would seek asylum in Sweden 2015 Estimates are (Migration Agency) somewhere between 70 000 and 140 000 asylum seekers in 2016

4. The rise of the Swedish Democratic Party

5. Survey LORE (Laboratory of Opinion Research, University of Gothenburg) Citizen Panel (60 000 respondents) Web questionnaires November 2015 Questions about the asylum crisis: evaluation of the news media coverage and government actions, opinions about the asylum crisis, and personal experience of the asylum crisis.

6. The Spiral of Silence Elisabeth Noelle-Neuman The theory asserts that a person is less likely to voice and opinion on a topic of morality if one feels that one is in the minority for fear of reprisal or isolation from the majority

7. Example of spiral of silence syndroms Willingness to speak out Silence Prevailing public opinion

8. ARE PEOPLE AFRAID OF EXPRESSING OPINIONS ABOUT THE ASYLUM CRISIS?

9. Can you talk honestly about the asylum crisis?

10. Are everyone quiet? AGE Personal experience Percieved public opinion Education Political ideology Gender

11. …family & friends Age Gender Education Leftist Personal experience Positive evaluation of media coverage Speak honestly among…….

12. …work- & school- mates Age Gender High education Leftist Personal experience Positive evaluation of media coverage Speak honestly among…….

13. …strangers Young Gender High education Leftist Personal experience Positive evaluation of media coverage Speak honestly among…….

14. What have we learned? We are generally afraid of being social isolated and suppress our attitudes, especially when we talk to people we don’t know so well. Young people and highly educated are more willing to express their opinions when they are in a conversation with people outside family and friends. Regardless everything else – people with leftist opinions tend are more willing to speak out their opinion Regardless everything else – people who with a positive evaluation of the media coverage of the asylum crisis are more willing to speak out their opinion

15. The perception of what is believed to be the majority opinion of the asylum crisis leads to strong fear of expressing opinions independent who you talk to.

16. Changed policy Identity checks would be imposed on all modes of transport, and the right to bring families to Sweden would be severely restricted

17. APRIL 2016!

18. Thank you! Bengt Johansson Professor in Journalism and Mass Communication University of Gothenburg bengt.johansson@jmg.gu.se Bengt Johansson Professor in Journalism and Mass Communication University of Gothenburg bengt.johansson@jmg.gu.se