1. Economic crises and labour market conundrums KEVIN DOOGAN UNIVERSITY OF BRISTOL

2.  Currently there are three competing narratives each of which points to labour market trends worthy of consideration

3. One account suggests that we are in the midst of a jobs boom  Unemployment is 7.7% which is remarkable given the decline in GDP  584000 jobs added last year  Current employment levels greater than before onset of crisis  The shape of the UK labour market is changing, led by professional occupations – including lawyers, accountants and management consultants

4. Jobs Boom?  Yet the employment rate is down, particularly for men (78.8% in 2007 to 76.3% 2012)  The contribution of part-time jobs to this employment growth (42%) is disproportionately high  ‘The hour glass economy’  ‘Growthless jobbification ’

5. Labour Market Flexibility?  A second narrative suggests that that labour market flexibility has resulted in a variety of trends from ‘labour hoarding’ to underemployment, both of which serve to maintain employment levels and depress the rate of unemployment.

6. Labour Market Flexibility?  Temporary employment rate in the UK is very low, approximately 6.6%, and has hardly altered as a consequence of the recession – unlike other European and US evidence  Arguably the salience of underemployment is rooted in some (macho) notion that part-time jobs are not ‘real jobs’, perhaps based in the notion of the secondary labour market or some overgeneralised notion of ‘the periphery’  The rise in involuntary part-time employment cannot explain the muted rise in unemployment since only 17.5% of part-time workers could not find a full-time job and 82.% did not want a full-time job.

7. Thirdly the radical novelty of the ‘Great Recession’  It is only partly expressed in job losses and unemployment  The weakness of the recovery and the protracted nature of the recession  Fiscal consolidation marks a radically different form of labour market adjustment compared to previous recessions

8. The Dynamics of Labour Market Change  There are two dynamics that operate in the sphere of production and reproduction  In the sphere or reproduction there are distinct systems of coordination finance and planning which confer a greater stability and orderliness to the labour market  The labour market acts as both conductor and insulator  It is not simply a question of consumer confidence and purchasing power, austerity chokes off job creation in key areas of the economy such as Health, Education and Social Services

9. Looking at the crisis in international and historical context  After 10 quarters the recovery in the OECD economies faltered especially in Europe  http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset- Management/oecd/employment/oecd-employment-outlook- 2012_empl_outlook-2012-en

10. Comparing previous crises in the UK the current lack of economic recovery is highly significant  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AonYZ s4MzlZbcGhOdG0zTG1EWkVPX1k1VWR6LTd1U3c#gid=9 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AonYZ s4MzlZbcGhOdG0zTG1EWkVPX1k1VWR6LTd1U3c#gid=9  In the UK there was significant increases in output per worker two years after the onset of the 1980 recession.  The 1980s recession witnessed the return of mass unemployment in the UK and took 10 years to clear

11. The impact of fiscal consolidation suggests  The duration rather than the depth of the crisis  There is no sign of economic rebound almost almost five years after the start of the recession

12. In the US there were 8% growth rates two years after the onset of 1980s recession

13. Prospects and Speculations  A protracted rather than a deep recession in relation to jobs  The recession is significantly expressed in wage suppression, occupational and welfare benefit changes, job grading, raising of retirement change and pension reform  Structural change in terms of industry, occupation and composition will be much less than the 1980s  There will be significant implications in terms of age at both ends of the spectrum  On current trends it is not unreasonable to project that a significantly lower rate of unemployment will take longer to clear than in the 1980s