1. Presented at: The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 24 March 2011 Tunisia Predicted: Demography and the Probability of Liberal Democracy in the Greater Middle East Richard Cincotta Consultant on Political Demography, The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Demographer-in-residence The Stimson Center rcincotta@stimson.org

2. Thanks to: National Intelligence Council Long Range Analysis Unit Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Environmental Change & Security Program. The Stimson Center

3. Four democracy questions Why are some states seemingly “unready for liberal democracy”? Why are some groups of liberal democracies so stable? Why has there been a decade-long break in political liberalization? What are reasonable expectations for developing states in terms of democratization?

4. Data: UN Population Division, 2009

5. Year (5-yr period) Tunisia Egypt Syria Algeria Jordan

6. Transitional Population age structures 2005 Data: UN Population Division, 2009 Cincotta, 2009

7. DATA SOURCE: UN Population Division, 2009 Four categories: four individual countries

9. Hobbesian Bargain Hypothesis: Elites Citizenry Political rights Civil liberties Security Youth Bulge Hypothesis: Effort needed to recruit for political violence Low amount of effort needed High amount of effort needed

10. Median Age (Years) 1525354555 YouthfulIntermediateMaturePost-Mature AuthoritarianismLiberalization Net Benefits

11. Median Age (Years) 1525354555 Likelihood YouthfulIntermediateMaturePost-Mature Violent intra-state conflict Liberal democracy

12. Transitional Population age structures 2005 Data: UN Population Division, 2009 Zone of Vulnerability: high risk of political violence high risk of losing liberal democracy

13. Proportion Liberal democracies Proportion of liberal democracies in age-structural categories YouthfulIntermediateMaturePost-Mature Nil set

14. Cincotta & Doces, 2011 Liberal democracy and age-structural youthfulness in 5 world regions, 1975-2005 Data: UN Population Division, 2009

15. Youth bulges and the path to liberal democracy: 8 selected states Cincotta, 2009 Some anecdotal evidence of rises as youth bulge declines.

17. Four democracy questions Why are some states seemingly “unready for liberal democracy”? States with youthful populations have a lower probability of rising to and remaining a liberal democracy Why are some groups of liberal democracies so stable? States with mature populations typically have stable liberal democracies. Why has there been a decade-long break in political liberalization? Few developing countries are moving through the “sweet spot” of their age structural transition (median age ~26 to 35 years) What are reasonable expectations for developing states in terms of democratization? Don’t have high expectations for democracy when age structures are young.