1. Polar bears Al Gore Apocalypse Junk Science Greenhouse gases Glaciers Kyoto Decision-making Disaster IPCC Tradeoffs Human dimensions Policy implementation Human behavior Public perceptions Mitigation Heresy Communication Adaptation Scenarios Social Sciences Climate models Biodiversity chicanery Conspiracy Understanding and Communicating Scientific Uncertainty Dave MacNeill, Great Lakes Fisheries Specialist NY Sea Grant Extension, SUNY Oswego dbm4@cornell.edu dbm4@cornell.edu

2. Those nagging questions Convincing evidence Contentious points + What should we do? Why do scientists change their minds? Why do scientists disagree? Is climate change real?

3. Climate change is multifaceted…. defining issue for the future of mankind. defining issue for the future of mankind. research and outreach priority. research and outreach priority. necessitates integrative approach for communication, problem solving and decision-making. necessitates integrative approach for communication, problem solving and decision-making. science model. science model.

4. My favorite perspective on uncertainty: “As we know, there are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns. That is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don't know we don't know.” — Donald Rumsfeldt, Feb. 12, 2002, Department of Defense news briefing

5. Understanding the concepts of risk and uncertainty with a deck of cards?? Understanding the concepts of risk and uncertainty with a deck of cards?? The uncertainty: What poker hand will I draw next? The risk: What is the probability of drawing this hand? (<1%) The Dead Man’s Hand: unlucky for Wild Bill Hickok?

6. But, the card deck changes unexpectedly…… The Risk ? Death cards Other cards

7. Cascading Uncertainties in Climate Science Emission scenarios Carbon cycle response Global climate sensitivity Regional climate change scenarios Range of possible impacts Adapted from Schneider 1983

8. Stochastic (Surprises) Science Nature Knowledge Human reflexive (volition) Epistemic (Unknowns) Non-Scientists Mac’s Uncertainty Concept Model Decisions Knowledge Scientists communication (translation)

9. Uncertainty Scientist Non-scientist “You just don’t understand because our work is too complicated. We know what is best because science provides the best information for solving problems, but it is not our job to explain it to you”. We’re scientists, not interpreters”. “Our models and statistics predict that change is occurring and we need to take action to reduce risks.” “You don’t understand it either, because science is sloppy and a collection of useless facts. We have our own ideas that make perfect sense to us. You’re arrogant, out-of touch and have impractical ideas”. “Prove it, your models and statistics have been wrong before and it makes no sense to take any action to prevent something that you can’t prove”. An exaggerated view…..

10. Science: God-like, Evil or Golem? Science: God-like, Evil or Golem? Mythical, unapproachable crusader Mythical, unapproachable crusader Ultimate source of knowledge/wisdom Ultimate source of knowledge/wisdom Operates in unencumbered, controlled environment Operates in unencumbered, controlled environment Strives for perfection Strives for perfection Accountable, held to high standard Accountable, held to high standard Misanthropic (justification), self-serving Misanthropic (justification), self-serving Seeks power, fame and fortune Seeks power, fame and fortune Unbridled, dangerous, rogue element Unbridled, dangerous, rogue element Truth Increasingly powerful, a creature of our own design. Increasingly powerful, a creature of our own design. Neither good or bad, protective, follows orders Neither good or bad, protective, follows orders Clumsy/dangerous, must be controlled Clumsy/dangerous, must be controlled Fallible = low expectations, Fallible = low expectations, Can’t be blamed for mistakes if it is trying Can’t be blamed for mistakes if it is trying

11. A systematic process for understanding Application of knowledge for problem solving A carefully collected, compiled and scrutinized body of knowledge A tool for understanding the natural world and improving the human condition. Science

12. Stochastic (Surprises) Science Nature Knowledge Human reflexive (volition) Epistemic (Unknowns) Non-Scientists Decisions Knowledge Scientists communication (translation) “To comprehend science as a responsible citizen…both content and reasoning are essential. The absence of one or the other may produce laughter, but not good science.” Dr. Paul Gross. Learning Science: Content with Reason. American Educator Fall 2009: 35-40 Content Reasoning

13. The Climate Uncertainty “Toolbox” Permutation tests Bootstrapping Resampling Stochastic models Monte Carlo Bayesian statistics Jackknife Deterministic models Neural networks Fisherian statistics Climate models Likelihood-based approaches Scenario analysis Ensemble models Forecasts Parameterization Climate proxies Probability density functions projections

14. Communicating Uncertainty: Examples from Weather Forecasts Numerical probabilities: Numerical probabilities: –A 30 % chance of rain. Qualitative or categorical forecasts: Qualitative or categorical forecasts: –Today’s weather will be “fine”. Handmer et al. 2007

15. “We have to deal with this new type of threat [terrorism] in a new way we haven’t yet defined.. With a low-probability, high impact event like this.. if there is a 1% chance that Pakistani nuclear scientists are helping Al Qaeda build or develop a nuclear weapon, we have to treat it as a certainty in terms of our response” -- Dick Cheney, Former Vice-President “Climate change is the most severe problem we are facing today - more serious than the threat from terrorism” – Sir David King Director, Smith School of Environment, Oxford; Research Director, Dept. of Physical Chemistry, Cambridge; Former Chief Scientific Advisor to Blair Administration. An Interesting Expert Opinion: An Essay: Divergent American Reactions to Terrorism and Climate Change Cass Sustein 2007: Columbia Law Review 107: 503-557

16. Climate Change – Global Warming Scenarios

17. And now, the punch line(s)…… Climate change uncertainties: research and outreach challenges Climate change uncertainties: research and outreach challenges Uncertainties are cumulative: science to policy Uncertainties are cumulative: science to policy Integrative natural and social science approach to decision- making. Integrative natural and social science approach to decision- making. Scenarios: address insurmountable uncertainties. Scenarios: address insurmountable uncertainties. Outreach: Outreach: –sources of uncertainty –science mechanics –restore faith in science –assess/understand heuristics –facilitate improved decision-making –craft a responsible, informative and useful message

18. “Any philosophy that in its quest for certainty ignores the reality of the uncertain in the ongoing processes of nature, denies the conditions out of which it arises.” John Dewey, The Quest for Certainty, 1929 Epilogue