1. Frank Vitrano Associate Director for Decennial Census Programs United States Census Bureau Beyond 2011 Workshop & International Review Panel Titchfield, England May 21, 2014 2020 Census Research and Testing

2. Overview of the United States Census Envisioning the 2020 Census Cost-Saving Innovative Methodologies  Use of Administrative Records  Field Reengineering Key Milestones Outline 2

3. Overview of the United States Census

4. Decennial Census is the largest peacetime activity the United States Federal Government undertakes. The United States Constitution requires that a census be conducted every 10 years to apportion the United States House of Representatives. Census will count all persons living in the United States on April 1 of the year ending in “0”. Census data help ensure fair share of political representation. Starting with the 2010 Census, we use only a short-form. Long-form data are collected using the American Community Survey (ACS), a continuous measurement survey. Census results (including those from the ACS) directly affect how more than $400 billion per year in federal funding is allocated to state, local, and tribal governments – more than $4 trillion over the next decade. 4

5. 5 Cost Per Housing Unit (1970 -2020)

6. Cost Drivers of the United States Census Increased diversity of the population Demand for the Census Bureau to strive for improving accuracy over previous censuses Lack of full public participation in the self-response phase of the census, requiring hiring of a large field staff for nonresponse follow-up Challenges managing major acquisitions, schedule, and budget Substantial investments in major, national updating of the address list prior to enumeration 6

7. Envisioning the 2020 Census

8. Design and conduct a census that costs less per housing unit than the 2010 Census while maintaining high quality. Identify cost drivers and implement innovative enumeration methods aimed at reducing these costs. Focus early research and testing program on major innovations to the design of the census oriented around major cost drivers of the 2010 Census. 8

9. 9 Cost-Saving Innovative Methodologies Optimizing Self-Response Nonresponse Follow-up using Administrative Records Field Reengineering Targeted Address Canvassing

10. Conduct NRFUProcess, tabulate, and disseminate data Basic Approach for the United States Census 10

11. Conduct NRFU Process, tabulate, and disseminate data Area of Focus Today 11

12. 2010 Census by the Numbers NRFU Workload 12

13. 2010 Census Match Study Address Matches and Non-Matches 13 Administrative data include: Income tax reports Social security records Public health insurance enrollees Housing information Postal service records Public assistance data

14. 312 million administrative record persons ‒ 273.6 million administrative record persons matched to 2010 Census persons ‒ 38.8 million administrative record persons did not match 2010 Census persons 308 million people counted in the 2010 Census –5.5 million 2010 Census persons did not have a corresponding administrative record person 2010 Census Match Study Person Matches and Non-Matches 14

15. “The question of whether a complete administrative records census is possible… has too often been the beginning and the end of discussions… should be open to and use its matched records – census files, to explore the use of administrative data in a supplementary role to a wide variety of census operations. In particular, roles for administrative data as a supplementary resource to NRFU operations should be explored.” National Academy of Sciences (2011) Role of Administrative Records 15

16. Utilize administrative records to reduce NRFU workload and increase NRFU productivity. Administrative Records:  Reduce the number of cases that need to be resolved in NRFU to reduce cost while preserving data quality.  Determine the timing of removing cases. (e.g., Do we remove unoccupied housing units first, but try to make at least one visit for occupied housing units?)  Impute housing units that remain unresolved after field work.  Use administrative records to predict the best time to contact non-responding households.  Use 2010 Census data, as well as more up-to-date American Community Survey data, to develop rules on when to use records and what records to use. Use of Administrative Records during Nonresponse Follow-up (NRFU) 16

17. Initiatives underway to expand access to sources we currently acquire:  Internal Revenue Service Tax Returns  Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services Enrollment Database  Social Security Administration Initiatives to acquire new administrative records data that include nutritional social welfare programs and labor force databases:  Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program  Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children  National Directory of New Hires Currently seeking data on the foreign born, veterans, and active duty personnel. Sources of Administrative Records Data 17

18. Field Reengineering Reengineer the approach and management of field enumeration by streamlining and automating operations and more efficiently planning and controlling field activities. Manage cases with associated business rules and technology:  Create daily assignments based on:  Contact history and available administrative records,  Environment factors (e.g., likelihood of resident being home),  Respondent factors (e.g., language spoken by resident), and  Enumerator’s work schedule  Map out pre-determined travel routes for enumerators, thereby reducing time and distance traveled between cases. 18

19. Field Reengineering (continued) Determine the appropriate structure for field operations (e.g., number and size of office and work force). Determine the roles and responsibilities within the field structure. Consolidate field operations (e.g., combined/reconceptualized operations and staff activities). Effort to fundamentally reengineer the management of field work includes:  Fully utilize automation in case management.  Streamline, consolidate, and automate operations.  Develop a proof-of-concept system for testing in fiscal year 2015. 19

20. 2010 Approach Establish cut-off date for self- response. Produce NRFU universe. Create geographic assignment areas, each one averaging about 40 cases. 2020 Approach Keep accepting responses after self- response cut-off date. Produce NRFU universe. Create daily assignments based on: –Enumerator’s work schedule –Contact history –Availability of administrative records –Environment factors (e.g., likelihood of resident being home) –Respondent factors (e.g., language) 2010 vs. 2020 Approaches to Field Work 20

21. 2010 Approach Establish cut-off date for self- response. Produce NRFU universe. Create geographic assignment areas, each one averaging about 40 cases. 2020 Approach Keep accepting responses after self- response cut-off date. Produce NRFU universe. Create daily assignments based on: –Enumerator’s work schedule –Contact history –Availability of administrative records –Environment factors (e.g., likelihood of resident being home) –Respondent factors (e.g., language) 21 2010 vs. 2020 Approaches (cont.)

22. 2010 Approach Establish cut-off date for self- response. Produce NRFU universe. Create geographic assignment areas, each one averaging about 40 cases. 2020 Approach Keep accepting responses after self- response cut-off date. Produce NRFU universe. Create daily assignments based on: –Enumerator’s work schedule –Contact history –Availability of administrative records –Environment factors (e.g., likelihood of resident being home) –Respondent factors (e.g., language) 22 2010 vs. 2020 Approaches (cont.)

23. 2010 Approach Have enumerators make up to 6 contact attempts (at different times of the day and different days of the week). Have enumerators plan own travel route. Assign more work once enumerators complete an assignment area. Have enumerators meet face-to-face with supervisor daily to go over progress and hand in payroll information. 2020 Approach Base number of contacts on availability of administrative records (fewer visits if records are available). Map out travel route for each enumerator. Update case load daily. Daily face-to-face meeting with supervisor not necessary; coaching and supervision are still needed. 2010 vs. 2020 Approaches (cont.) 23

24. 2010 Approach Have enumerators make up to 6 contact attempts (at different times of the day and different days of the week). Have enumerators plan own travel route. Assign more work once enumerators complete an assignment area. Have enumerators meet face-to-face with supervisor daily to go over progress and hand in payroll information. 2020 Approach Base number of contacts on availability of administrative records (fewer visits if records are available). Map out travel route for each enumerator. Update case load daily. Daily face-to-face meeting with supervisor not necessary; coaching and supervision are still needed. 2010 vs. 2020 Approaches (cont.) 24

25. 2010 Approach Have enumerators make up to 6 contact attempts (at different times of the day and different days of the week). Have enumerators plan own travel route. Assign more work once enumerators complete an assignment area. Have enumerators meet face-to-face with supervisor daily to go over progress and hand in payroll information. 2020 Approach Base number of contacts on availability of administrative records (fewer visits if records are available). Map out travel route for each enumerator. Update case load daily. Daily face-to-face meeting with supervisor not necessary; coaching and supervision are still needed. 2010 vs. 2020 Approaches (cont.) 25

26. 2010 Approach Have enumerators make up to 6 contact attempts (at different times of the day and different days of the week). Have enumerators plan own travel route. Assign more work once enumerators complete an assignment area. Have enumerators meet face-to-face with supervisor daily to go over progress and hand in payroll information. 2020 Approach Base number of contacts on availability of administrative records (fewer visits if records are available). Map out travel route for each enumerator. Update case load daily. Daily face-to-face meeting with supervisor not necessary; coaching and supervision are still needed. 2010 vs. 2020 Approaches (cont.) 26

27. Preview: Day of an Enumerator Dynamic Case Assignment At the end of each day, the operational control system: Tracks completed cases (including late self- response cases) Updates contact strategies, respondent/ environment information 27

28. Intended Outcomes Fewer census offices Less staff Increased productivity Leveraging off-the-shelf technology More staff redirected to hard-to-count populations 28

29. Key Milestones 2,141 Days until Census Day!

30. Key Milestones Next Steps: Toward Preliminary Design Decisions Results of the testing activities in fiscal years 2014 – 2015 will be critical in making preliminary design decisions by end of 2015. Research and testing will continue to focus on field reengineering; nonresponse followup using administrative records and adaptive design; targeted address canvassing; and optimizing self-response. Preliminary design decisions will drive additional testing beyond fiscal year 2015 and ultimately lead to the final 2020 design decisions. 30

31. Key Milestones Steps Towards 2020 Census 31

32. Questions