1. A Methodology to Support Anticipatory Planning John M. D. Hill John R. “Buck” Surdu Udo W. Pooch

2. Texas A&M University - U.S. Army Agenda Motivation Anticipatory Planning A Methodology to Support Anticipatory Planning Conclusion

3. Texas A&M University - U.S. Army Motivation Traditional MDMP focuses on developing friendly COAs against “most-likely / most-dangerous” enemy COAs “No plan survives the first shot” This is another way of saying that a branch has occurred which was not included in the plan

4. Texas A&M University - U.S. Army Anticipatory Planning General (ret.) Wass de Czega has proposed an entirely new approach to military planning and execution This “Anticipatory Planning” process merges planning and execution As many branches as are reasonably possible are developed in the initial process As execution progresses the plan is continuously updated based on actual events Invalid branches are eliminated and new ones are developed

5. Texas A&M University - U.S. Army The Purpose: To maintain as many viable options in the plan as possible To focus planning effort where it will do the most good To help the commander and staff identify decisions that they { can | should | must } make NOW to ensure a desired option is available LATER

6. Texas A&M University - U.S. Army Planning Executive Anticipatory Planning Support System WorldView Plan Description World Integrator Execution Monitors Planners Data from the current, real operation (e.g., ABCS, GCCS, etc.) Real information plus “dead reckoned” information Plan Information Control Information Branches Generator Branch Evaluator

7. Texas A&M University - U.S. Army Plan Description Example Node with an Execution Monitor Actual State of the Operation Node with a Planned State

8. Texas A&M University - U.S. Army Invalidation of Branches Actual State of the Operation Invalidated Branch Node with a Planner

9. Texas A&M University - U.S. Army Re-Planning Actual State of the Operation Newly Generated Still Invalidated Newly Invalidated Re-Validated

10. Texas A&M University - U.S. Army Planning Frontier and Planning Space Actual State of the Operation Planning Space Planning Frontier

11. Texas A&M University - U.S. Army Conclusion The Anticipatory Planning process accounts for the chaotic nature of warfare in which possibilities appear and disappear With the advent of information age technologies, U. S. military planners should have the capability to plan faster and stay inside the enemy decision cycle The Anticipatory Planning process, aided by the automated support system, will provide a decisive advantage

12. Texas A&M University - U.S. Army Questions? If we have time … fire away! Otherwise: –http://www.cs.tamu.edu/people/ { hillj | carverc | surdu } –http://www.cs.tamu.edu/faculty/pooch –{ hillj | carverc | surdu | pooch }@cs.tamu.edu}@cs.tamu.edu

13. Texas A&M University - U.S. Army Tracking the Actual Operation World Integrator –Fusion of sensor data –Dead-reckoning World View –Actual State –Representation should be similar to Plan Description

14. Texas A&M University - U.S. Army Planning Executive Controls the overall operation of the Anticipatory Planning Support System (APSS) Monitors use of system resources Controls the instantiation and activities of Execution Monitors and Planners, constraining the Planning Space Determines the priority of planning (creating a Planning Frontier) Provides the interface to the user for initial plan conditions and instructions

15. Texas A&M University - U.S. Army Execution Monitor Monitors the Actual State of the operation (through a “subscribe and publish” methodology Conducts forward simulation to produce an Anticipated State at its monitored Node Compares the Anticipated State to the Planned State at that Node Determines the significance of any differences, and makes a recommendation to the Planning Executive if re-planning is appropriate

16. Texas A&M University - U.S. Army Planner Operates on the Planned State or an Anticipated State for a Node Invokes a Branches Generator to develop significant, representative Branches from that Node and the Planned State for the new Node at the end of the Branch Invokes a Branch Evaluator on each branch to determine a Viability Measure and a Likelihood Measure (for use by the Planning Executive in establishing priorities) If re-planning is conducted, revalidates or invalidates existing branches

17. Texas A&M University - U.S. Army Plan Description Representation of the possible ways the operation can proceed Nodes –Retain the Planned State Branches –Transitions –Retain pre-conditions for the Branch (used by Execution Monitors to subscribe to information updates) –Retain utility measures