1. The Arab Spring – Late modernization or something else?

2. - Muhammed Bouazizi 1984-2011 Ben Ali 1987-2011 Mubarak 1981-2011 Qadhafi 1969-2011 Saleh? (1978/1990- )

3. (Al-Jazeera) Morocco Mauretania Algeria Tunisia Libya Sudan Egypt Djibouti Somalia Yemen Oman Saudi Arabia UAE Qatar Bahrain Kuwait Iraq Palestine Jordan Syria Lebanon

4. FreePartly FreeNot Free (Israel)LebanonAlgeria Bahrain Egypt Iraq Jordan Oman Qatar UAE Yemen (Iran) West Bank/Gaza Tunisia Saudi Arabia Syria Libya Sudan (Freedom House 2011)

5. Expectations for a democratization of the Arab World in the 1990s: -The fall of the USSR - The democratization of eastern Europe (and Central Asia) - The Arab-Israeli peace process initiated in 1991 - New generation of leaders

6. 1 liberalization 2 transition 3 consolidation Phases of democratization  ”system maintenance” Tunisia 23 October Libya April 2012 Egypt November 2011 + March/April 2012

7. David Lerner (1958) The Passing of Traditional Society

8. What characterizes a ”modern society”? -value pluralism -welfare development -market economy -mass consumption -competitive democracy “Modernization is the internal achievement of a society” (Berger 1996)

9. Year198020101980201019802010 Algeria 68848447-77,659,667102,9 Egypt 2633584037,466,456,662,99,43,1 Libya -1699938,988,359,867,8132,2 Morocco 2528463830,358,257,764,1103,4 Tunisia 39168509-8062,168,613,34,3 GDP/capita adult literacy rate life expectancy unemploy- corruption US $ % years ment rate % score 10-1

10. Year198020101980201019802010 Iraq ---74,16168,5181,5 Jordan 4270570066,891,16273,111,94,7 Lebanon -13510-89,666,572,4102,5 West Bank/Gaza ---93,862,773,917 37 - Syria 3642485755,784,76374,69,22,5 GDP/capita adult literacy life expectancy unemploy- corruption US$rate % years rate score 10-1

11. Year198020101980201019802010 Bahrain 23 6112783669,890,067,476154,9 Kuwait 433525028467,594,570,377,91,54,5 Oman 1048426258-86,360,176,1155,3 Saudi A 3746124 208-86,76173,39,22,5 Qatar -77178-93,166,1760,57,7 UAE -5648553,59062,177,712,76,3 GDP/capita adult literacy life expectancy unemploy- corruption $ rate % years ment rate scale 10-1 Yemen-259547,763,246,754,435%2,2

13. 10 worst internet enemies 2010 1) Burma 2) China 3) Cuba 4) Iran 5) North Korea 6) Saudi Arabia 7) Syria 8) Turkmenistan 9) Uzbekistan 10) Vietnam (Reporters without borders)

21. PriorDuringAfter State monopoly on information broken Breaking of taboos Human rights abuses reported Online discussions, avoiding bans on assembly and organization + sharpening of arguments Campaigns for political prisoners, victims of police brutality etc Mobilization Witness reports Provide journalists with information Show that there is a critical mass Create solidarity Spread from one state to the other Online discussions Role of new media (satellite channels, internet & social media)