1. G Glazebrook 1 Solutions for Sustainable Passenger Rail Transport Dr Garry Glazebrook Glazebrook and Associates AUSRAIL PLUS 2005 Sydney 22-24 November

2. G Glazebrook 2 Contents  What is sustainable?  The Role of Passenger Rail in Sydney  The Problem with CityRail  Making CityRail world class

3. G Glazebrook 3 1What is sustainable?  Sydney’s Public Transport scores well on environmental sustainability compared with cars Energy Intensiveness (MJ / Pass-km) by Mode and Time of Day 3.7 4.3 4.0 4.4 3.2 4.0 1.6 1.3 1.9 1.3 2.4 1.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 NightMorning peakDay off-peakAfternoon peakEveningAll Day Average Time of Day MJ per passenger-km Private Public

4. G Glazebrook 4 What is sustainable?  Cityrail is the cheapest form of public transport per passenger-kilometer in Sydney Cityrail STA Bus Private Bus Total Bus Annual Patronage (mill) 273198142340 Av Trip Length (km) 18.76.28.87.3 Total Pass- Km (billion) 5.111.231.252.48 Total Cost pa ($m) $1970$532$517$1049 Total Cost / pass-km 39c43c*41c*42c* * Does not include infrastructure

5. G Glazebrook 5 What is sustainable?  And has lower overall social costs than cars, when all externalities are included (accidents, pollution, congestion, space etc)

6. G Glazebrook 6 What is sustainable?  But financially public transport (and more particularly, Cityrail) is seen as a major drain on State revenues. Cityrail STA Bus Private Bus Total Bus Farebox Revenue $m $518$275$254$529 Farebox Rev / pass-km $0.10$0.22$0.20$0.21 Subsidy / pass-km $0.28$0.21$0.21$0.21 Cost / Trip $7.22$2.69$3.64$3.09 Revenue / Trip $1.90$1.39$1.79$1.56 Subsidy / Trip $5.32$1.30$1.85$1.53 Farebox Recovery % (Total Costs) 26%52%49%50%

7. G Glazebrook 7 How can rail become more (financially and politically) sustainable?  Improve overall cost recovery –Improve efficiency and productivity –Increase patronage (peak and off-peak) –Increase fares –Increase revenue from non-farebox sources  Improve customer satisfaction (reliability, speed, information etc) with the current “offer”  Extend its “value proposition” from merely running trains to providing high quality accessibility –Integrate with buses, taxis, park and ride –Widen scope to embrace light rail, and possibly metro and ultra light rail where appropriate  Improve understanding in the community and by decision- makers as to its role

8. G Glazebrook 8 2Role of Passenger Rail in Sydney  Passenger rail needs to be seen as part of a wider public transport – land use system  Specific modes should be chosen on a “horses for courses” basis.  All modes need to be fully integrated with multimodal information, fares, fare collection, marketing, service planning and funding.

9. G Glazebrook 9 Horses for Courses  Heavy rail for highest demand, med - longer distance corridors –Higher speed for longer distance corridors –Higher frequency for shorter distance corridors  Light rail on shorter distance, medium demand corridors into CBD and possibly Parramatta where capacity and environmental attributes valuable  Bus transitways linking low density suburban areas to secondary CBDs (Parramatta) – takes advantage of flexibility of bus-based transitways  Bus priority on medium distance, low demand cross-regional routes to provide reasonable speed and reliability  Conventional bus for short-med distance low demand routes  DRT buses and multihire taxis for lowest demand situations (evenings, low density areas and people with mobility handicap)  Specialised systems where their characteristics suit (eg universities, business parks, certain cross-suburb routes, new suburbs if built in from start etc)

10. G Glazebrook 10 Priorities for Passenger rail for Sydney  NW – SW Rail Link  Metro Rail  Light Rail  High Speed Rail  Ultra-light Rail

11. G Glazebrook 11 The NW-SW Line is the key priority for heavy rail for Sydney

12. G Glazebrook 12 This will extend high quality rail into Sydney’s key growth corridors, which currently have very poor public transport access Overall public transport access, 2001

13. G Glazebrook 13 It will also enable the rest of the rail network to be dramatically improved  Capacity  Reliability  Speed  Frequency  Connectivity However maximising these benefits will require a change of philosophy, as discussed later…

14. G Glazebrook 14 Metros for Sydney?  The Christie report recommended a network of metro-rail lines for Sydney. –Parramatta – CBD via Gladesville (River line) –CBD to Maroubra –CBD – F6 corridor (south) –CBD – Warringah  Additional options have also been discussed, specifically a route from the CBD under the Parramatta Rd Corridor to Homebush and on to Parramatta.

15. G Glazebrook 15 But Sydney is only just at the density thresh-hold to justify metros, based on overseas experience

16. G Glazebrook 16 Metros  It is considered that a network of light rail lines in the inner suburbs would be more cost-effective than an extensive metro line network given the high cost of tunneling  This could be built up in the 2005-2020 period  However selected lines might be considered for the post 2020 period, when the next major enhancements to Cityrail should be completed.

17. G Glazebrook 17 Light Rail  50 studies so far have identified need for light rail in CBD and inner suburbs –7,400 State Transit buses along through the CBD each day – 9,000 by 2020 –Lack of capacity and poor environmental quality with current system –At least 25% more growth in CBD and inner suburbs –100 + cities world wide have adopted light rail for medium capacity, medium length applications where high quality and pedestrian amenity is important –City of Sydney and inner councils support this –Cross city tunnel was supposed to provide circuit breaker to enable this to happen

18. G Glazebrook 18 Light Rail for Inner Sydney

19. G Glazebrook 19 High Speed Rail  Various routes proposed including: –Sydney to Canberra and Melbourne Sydney – Parramatta (Western fast rail) –Sydney – Newcastle  Need for overall resolution of Sydney – Melbourne, Sydney-Brisbane transport options including freight  For example high speed line to Newcastle could free up existing line for more freight trains and eliminate need for duplicating Freeway  Probably all these options are now in the 2020+ period for implementation. But continued growth on the eastern seaboard will mean that the issues will not go away  Chinese and Japanese experience with mag lev should show if this is viable, or whether conventional high speed rail is more appropriate

20. G Glazebrook 20 Austrans and Specialist Systems  Morgantown system remains virtually the only PRT/GRT system actually in operation  Growing number of automated light rail / APM systems in airports, Singapore etc  Some specific niche applications in Sydney  Austrans has potential but needs investment to achieve commercial scale

21. G Glazebrook 21 3The Problem with Cityrail  Cityrail’s existing network is not that large by world standards –But it has too many junctions, especially flat junctions –There is not enough capacity at the core of the network to fully exploit the branches –The situation is confounded by Cityrail’s complex operating philosophy and timetable

22. G Glazebrook 22 The Cityrail network is not particularly complex..

23. G Glazebrook 23 Especially compared with something like Inner Tokyo

24. G Glazebrook 24 But Cityrail uses too many flat junctions

25. G Glazebrook 25 And has not enough tracks through the CBD

26. G Glazebrook 26 Complex timetables and routing lead to operational complexities and unreliability

27. G Glazebrook 27 Example: 16 trains arrive Central at P17 from 7:30 – 8:30am. Time arrive Central P17 FromVia Stopping pattern Approach Central 7:30amAshfield Inner West All stops West Local 7:33amCampbelltown Regents Park Semi Fast West Local 7:36amGlenfieldGranville Semi Fast West Local 7:39amCampbelltownGranville Semi Fast West Local 7:45amBankstownSydenham All Stops Illawarra Local 7:50amBankstown Regents Park All stops West local 7:53amCampbelltownGranville Semi Fast West Local 7:56amLidcombe Regents Park All Stops Illawarra Local 8:00amAshfield Inner West All stops West Local 8:03amLiverpool Regents Park Semi Fast West Local 8:06amGlenfieldGranville Semi Fast West Local 8:09amLiverpoolGranville Semi Fast West Local 8:17amStrathfieldSydenham All Stops Illawarra Local 8:20amBankstown Regents Park All Stops West Local 8:23amCampbelltownGranville Semi Fast West Local 8:26amStrathfieldSydenham All Stops Illawarra Local

28. G Glazebrook 28 Train arriving platform 17… These involve six quite different and interconnected routes –Liverpool / Campbelltown / Glenfield via Regents Park –Liverpool via Bankstown and Illawarra –Lidcombe / Strathfield via Bankstown and Illawarra –Bankstown via Strathfield and Inner West –Liverpool / Campbelltown via Granville and Inner West –Ashfield via Inner West  These merge and demerge at various points  They also share some tracks with other services  (eg Campbelltown via East Hills), which in turn interact with yet other services ( eg Campbelltown and East Hills via Airport services)

29. G Glazebrook 29 In the morning peak hour…  There are 102 Cityrail inbound services in Sydney  These utilise some 37 different routes (not counting different stopping patterns for the same route)  There are only 2.76 services using a given route per hour – once every 22 minutes on average  Because of the number of route possibilities, it is necessary to define many routes by which specific track they use for up to six different zones: –Far outer suburbs –Outer suburbs –Middle suburbs –Inner Suburbs –Close suburbs –Route through the CBD  In most cities, there is only one route for each starting point.

30. G Glazebrook 30 Routes and Segments

31. G Glazebrook 31 Reliability, frequency and speeds are poor

32. G Glazebrook 32 The addition of the NW and SW lines could make this even more complex if the same philosophy is applied

33. G Glazebrook 33 4A New Approach To achieve the potential inherent in the Cityrail system: –More capacity is needed through the CBD, together with some limited additional quadruplication / duplication and turn backs –Network needs to be fully sectorised and the timetable simplified to increase core reliability –Services need to be more frequent, reducing waiting and interchange times –Pressure on Town Hall and Wynyard needs to be reduced – allowing faster load unload times –New rollingstock designs are needed for new lines to allow much accelerated services

34. G Glazebrook 34 The NW-SW line should be used to simplify the total network Remaining “flat” Junctions in regular use

35. G Glazebrook 35 Network design and operating approach  This can be achieved by: –Using the Airport line as part of the NW-SW line, and fully segregating this from the rest of the network –Running all trains from the northern line into Sydney Terminal –Using the West suburban lines between Central and Homebush exclusively for Western and Richmond services –Using the West Local lines between Central and Homebush exclusively for South line services  The only intermingling of services on a regular basis would be: –Newcastle (Northern) and C Coast / Berowra services north of Hornsby –Cumberland and Richmond line services between Blacktown and Westmead –Cumberland and South (Granville) services between Merrylands and Cabramatta Jcn.  There would only be four places remaining with “Flat Junctions” with opposing train movements in peak hours

36. G Glazebrook 36 Capacity, frequency and reliability CriteriaCurrentPotential% Change Total Inbound Peak Hour Services102160*57% Routes in peak hour3727-27% Services / Route / Hour2.85.9115% Av Wait Time between Services (Min)10.95.1-53% No of Flat Junctions104-60% * Ultimate capacity = 180 to 200 services

37. G Glazebrook 37 Service Design Parameters  Every station in the Sydney basin and major stations beyond to have direct services to at least one station in Sydney CBD without change  Possible to go from any station in Sydney to any CBD station, or to Parramatta, Chatswood, or Liverpool, with at most one change  Services to be speeded up on average by at least 10% on average compared with current timetable  All stations in Sydney to have at least five services per hour in the peak hour, four in off-peaks, and three in the evenings, in the dominant direction  Stations 15km or more from Central to have choice of express / semi fast services (possibly with change of service) in peak periods.

38. G Glazebrook 38 Productivity and Cost Recovery  New NW-SW Line could use single deck rollingstock: –Faster loading /unloading and acceleration / deceleration –Potential for automated or one-man operation –Potential for higher fares  South services could also use single deck rollingstock (these involve many all stations services and relatively short station spacing)  Remaining services should be accelerated by 10% cf current timetable by reducing excessive recovery time built into current timetable to achieve reliability. This would also improve productivity by 10%  Evening and weekend services should use 4-car sets to reduce energy consumption, maintenance costs. Automated coupling / uncoupling should be introduced.  Increase in patronage by up to 60%, and fares by 10 – 20% (coupled with improved service), plus cost savings of at least 10%, should dramatically improve cost recovery.

39. G Glazebrook 39 Potential Financial Situation Current Potential (2020) Patronage (Million)273409.550%Increase Average Fare$1.90$2.1815%Increase Farebox revenue (Million)$518$894 Cost Index Per Unit10090-10% system Size * Stations3003207%Increase Rollingstock1600215034%Increase Cost $ million 2004$1,970$2,055 Farebox Cost recovery26%43%

40. G Glazebrook 40 Conclusions  Making Passenger rail in Sydney more financially, and hence politically, sustainable, requires a re-think of the current network and how it is operated  The NW-SW line provides the opportunity to do this  Light rail in the inner suburbs makes sense now  Longer term there are potential opportunities for metro rail and possibly specialised systems such as Austrans  Rail in itself will always be a “station – station” rather than a door to door option. Full integration with other modes and land uses is a must.