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Validation of the IPSL models used for Mediterranean climate studies Laurent Li Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace.

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Presentation on theme: "Validation of the IPSL models used for Mediterranean climate studies Laurent Li Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace."— Presentation transcript:

1 Validation of the IPSL models used for Mediterranean climate studies Laurent Li Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL) CNRS/UPMC, Paris, France Mediterranean climate modelling workshop, Trieste, Oct 2008

2 IPSL: a federation of 5 laboratories (700 persons) And several institutions Who we are IPSL/LMD

3 IPSL Earth system model Sol et végétation Circulation atmosphérique Physique Glace de mer LMDzORCHIDEE PISCES INCA STOMATE ORCALIM LMDzORCHIDEE PISCES INCA STOMATE ORCALIM C0 2 Carbone Biogéochimie continentale Biogéochimieet Biologie marine C0 2 Carbone Biogéochimie continentale Biogéochimieet Biologie marine Chimie Gaz & DMS Nutritifs Chimie CH4, COV Aérosols Chimie Gaz & Aérosols DMS Nutritifs Chimie CH4, COV Aérosols Circulation Océanique

4 Atmosphere: LMDZ-4 Land: ORCHIDEE Ocean: ORCA Sea-ice: LIM Coupler: OASIS-3 Medium resolution: LMDZ 96x71x19 - ORCALIM : 2° The IPSL-CM4 climate model

5 LMDZ-Med is a global atmospheric GCM with variable grid and a zoom over the Mediterranean basin. Local resolution: 30 km. It is run as a regional climate model, with nudging conditions (every 6 hours) from a global model (LMDZ-g, ERA40, IPCC, etc.) at low resolution outside the zoom. The model is free to have its own behaviours inside the zoom. LMDZ-Mediterranean model

6 IPCC-A2 scenarios regionally-enhanced with LMDZ-Med IPSLCNRMGFDL Middle of the 21st century End of the 21st century Middle of the 21st century End of the 21st century T P

7 Changes (2070/2099 minus present) of seasonal extreme precipitations (30-year return values, from GEV distribution). Units: mm/day

8 Two-way (self-) nesting between LMDZ-regional and LMDZ-global Global Regional

9 Global Regional Med Sea oceanic model (MED8) Global oceanic model (ORCA2) Schematic of the quartriple coupling in IPSL

10 SST from coupled model (MED8-LMDZr) Jan Apr Jul Oct

11 SST from coupled model (MED8-LMDZr-LMDZg) Jan Apr Jul Oct

12 Climatological SST (AMIP) JanApr JulOct

13 Simulations planned in CIRCE Regional O-A coupled model (MED8 + LMDZr) used for the scenario A1B from 1951 to 2050 (either IPSL or MPI-M global inputs). Quartriple coupled model (MED8 + LMDZr + LMDZg + ORCA2) used for the scenario A1B from 1951 to 2050.

14 Two configurations: LMDZ-regional forced by prescribed lateral boundary conditions; Two-way nesting system between LMDZ-regional and LMDZ-global. Two experiments (10 years for each simulation): ObsVeg: Observed Vegetation of present day, NatVeg: Natural vegetation in the Mediterranean basin – idealized situation without any anthropogenic land use (statistical model). An example of the two-way nesting atmospheric system

15 Difference (NatVeg – ObsVeg) 2-way 1-way PrecipitationT2m PrecipitationT2m

16 Difference (NatVeg – ObsVeg) Regional Global PrecipitationT2m PrecipitationT2m

17 An example of LMDZr and LMDZg two-way nesting system for climate change scenario (Yangtze River Basin)

18 Annual-mean rainfall (mm/d) (top), and its future variation (bottom: ) LMDZ-globalLMDZ-regionalLMDZ-sn

19 An example of LMDZr coupled to a 50-m constant-depth slab model of the Med Sea This study is designed to investigate how large-scale synoptic processes exert their influences on the Mediterranean regional climate. Some synoptic perturbations are artificially filtred out from the lateral boundary conditions of the LMDZ-mediterranean model.

20 Experimental design schematic CTRLNoSynExtra NoSynTropiNoSyn 6-hr varying BC climatological BC 6-hr varying BC climatological BC

21 January 2-m temperature (K) CTRL NoSynExtra - CTRL NoSynTropi - CTRLNoSyn - CTRL

22 January precipitation (mm/day) CTRL NoSynExtra - CTRL NoSynTropi - CTRLNoSyn - CTRL

23 Geopotential (NoSynExtra – CTRL) 500 mb300 mb 850 mb 1000 mb

24 Suppression of extratropical synoptic perturbations makes a negative-phase NAO situation, i.e. more precipitation and warmer temperature in the south, but reverse in the north. Suppression of tropical synoptic perturbations makes a more uniform cooling and drying (but weak) in the domain.

25 Perspectives more resolution at regional scale more interactivity in the system L.F. Richardsons view of numerical weather prediction (1920s) (painting: François Schuiten, 2000)


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