1. UNCLASSIFIED 1 JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER LCDR Sarah Follett JTWC Operations Officer Mission Overview

2. UNCLASSIFIED 2 275 tropical cyclones in 10 years … A clear and present threat… Tropical Cyclone Tracks (2001-2010) WHY ARE WE HERE?

3. UNCLASSIFIED 3  Mission  Organization  Area of Responsibility  Satellite Recon  JTWC Products  2010 Cyclone Activity  Cyclone Tracks – Climatology  Error Statistics  Closing Thoughts  Questions OVERVIEW

4. UNCLASSIFIED 4 BACKGROUND  Established in 1959 to protect United States Department of Defense personnel and assets Operated from Nimitz Hill, Guam 1959-1999 BRAC decision moved JTWC to Pearl Harbor  Little ‘j’ organization – no joint billetts  United States Air Force provides reconnaissance and forecasters  United States Navy provides facility, equipment, and forecasters  2 person team standing 12 hour watches

5. UNCLASSIFIED 5 MISSION Provide tropical cyclone forecast and warning support for United States Department of Defense, United States Department of State and United States Government assets in the Pacific and Indian Oceans as established by Commander, United States Pacific Command Airmen from the 18th Aircraft Maintenance Squadron tow an F-15 Eagle into a protective aircraft shelter in preparation for Typhoon Man-Yi 12 Jul 07 at Kadena Air Base, Japan. (Source: U.S. Air Force/A1C Kasey Zickmund)

6. UNCLASSIFIED 6 ORGANIZATION Tech Services Tech USAF Civilian Chief, Technical Services USAF Civilian Director USAF Civilian Technical Advisor USN Civilian Typhoon Duty Officer USAF Civilian Operations Officer USN O-4 Typhoon Duty Officer USN O-2 Typhoon Duty Officer USAF Civilian Typhoon Duty Officer USAF Civilian Typhoon Duty Officer USN O-3 Typhoon Duty Officer USN O-3 Satellite Analyst USAF E-5 Satellite Analyst USAF Civilian Satellite Operations USAF O-3 SATOPS, NCOIC USAF E-7 Satellite Analyst USAF E-5 Satellite Analyst USAF Civilian Satellite Analyst USAF E-6 Satellite Analyst USAF E-6 CO, NMFC/JTWC Navy O-6 17 th OWS/CC USAF O-5

7. UNCLASSIFIED JTWC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY 33% 8% 11%13% 7% 1 7% RSMC Miami * Including WMO-sponsored Regional Specialized Meteorology Centers (RSMC) and percent of tropical cyclones by region

8. UNCLASSIFIED 8 SATELLITE RECONNAISSANCE Direct Readout Sites Lajes Field GOES-12 Sembach MET-7 Kadena FY-2D Andersen MTSAT Elmendorf GOES-11 Valley Forge GOES-12 TEST SITE NOT OPERATIONAL Hickam MTSAT METEOSAT-7 63 o E MTSAT-1R/2R 140 o E / 145 o E GOES-11 (W) 130 o W Fen-Yung 2D 105 o E GOES-12 (E) 75 o W METEOSAT-8 0 o

9. UNCLASSIFIED 9 SATELLITE RECONASIANCE USAF Polar Orbiting (LEO) Direct Readout Sites Andersen Current Polar Orbit (LEO) Footprint (~ 30 passes/day) Kadena Lajes Sembach Hickam Diego Garcia Learmouth Future Polar Orbit (LEO) Sites (~ 30 passes/day) Qatar

10. UNCLASSIFIED SATELLITE RECONNAISSANCE Fixes by Agency 113 343 86 94 41 93 42 (Total: 9,567) 2010 Station Fixes (All Agencies) 6,334 2,426 525

11. UNCLASSIFIED SATELLITE RECONNAISSANCE Fixes by JTWC (Total: 6,334) 2010 Station Fixes (JTWC only) 3,129 Microwave Fixes

12. UNCLASSIFIED Significant Tropical Weather Advisories (ABPW & ABIO) Tropical Cyclone Position/Intensity Fixes JTWC ANALYSIS PRODUCTS

13. UNCLASSIFIED SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY Low/Medium/High Areas - Issued daily @ 0600Z/1800Z - Contains info on: -- Tropical Cyclones in warning or TCFA status -- Disturbances or “Suspect Areas” being monitored for potential development

14. UNCLASSIFIED POSITION & INTENSITY FIXES - Infrared/Enhanced & Infrared/Visible imagery fixes issued every 3 hours -- Position and intensity 0530Z + every 6 hours -- Position only 0230Z + every 6 hours - Microwave imagery fixes as imagery is available

15. UNCLASSIFIED TROPICAL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS 00Z and 12Z analysis of surface and upper level streamlines https://17ows.hickam.af.mil/

16. UNCLASSIFIED JTWC FORECAST PRODUCTS Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert 3 Hourly Updates Tropical Cyclone Warning

17. UNCLASSIFIED TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (Pre-Warning) - Issued as required - Used to advise expected TC formation within 12-24 hours - Provides preliminary expected movement -- Circle  nearly stationary -- Box  movement along centerline of box

18. UNCLASSIFIED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING - Issued 4 times per day NLT 03/09/15/21Z - 120 hour (5-day) forecast - Contains track, 34/50/64 knot wind radii, area of 34 knot wind potential (hatched area), closest points of approach, and bearing/distance

19. UNCLASSIFIED 19 TC PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE - Issued for Western Pacific cyclones - Issued every 12 hours -- 0300Z and 1500Z -- Not issued for a final warning - Intended for METOC personnel - Standard format -- Analysis -- Significant changes -- Short and medium range forcast -- Long range forecast (if applicable) -- Model analysis/discussion - Contains more detailed info on TC analysis, forecast reasoning, model guidance assessment, confidence, or alternate scenario

20. UNCLASSIFIED 3 HOUR JT- UPDATED POSITION (JTUP) - Created when a storm is 180nm from: -- Sasebo -- Kanto Plain -- Okinawa -- Misawa -- Cheju Island -- Guam - Created when above areas are at TCCOR II or higher. - Analysis for 03Z, 09Z, 15Z and 21Z positions between warning times.

21. UNCLASSIFIED 21 DCO CONFERENCE CALL - Available to operational forecasters via DCO at 2130Z when the JTWC 72-hr 35kt wind radii area falls on major DoD concentration areas. -- https://www.dco.dod.mil/https://www.dco.dod.mil/ - Discussion covers synoptic picture, storm analysis, forecast track, forecast intensity, track uncertainty, etc. - Discussion does not cover TCCOR - JTWC provides conference call room: -- https://connect.dco.dod.mil/jtwchttps://connect.dco.dod.mil/jtwc - Participation is highly encouraged

22. UNCLASSIFIED 22 TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY NW Pacific NW Pacific 2006: 26 2006: 26 2007: 27 2007: 27 2008: 27 2008: 27 2009: 28 2009: 28 2010: 19 2010: 19 25 Yr avg: 31 S. Indian Ocean & W. Australia Region 2006: 15 2007: 14 2008: 21 2009: 18 2010: 14 25 Yr avg: 18 South Pacific & E. Australia Region 2006: 8 2007: 10 2008: 8 2009: 9 2010: 10 25 Yr avg: 10 C Pacific C Pacific 2006: 1 2006: 1 2007: 0 2007: 0 2008: 1 2008: 1 2009: 3 2009: 3 2010: 1 2010: 1 25 Yr avg: 2 25 Yr avg: 2 NE Pacific NE Pacific 2006: 21 2006: 21 2007: 15 2007: 15 2008: 18 2008: 18 2009: 20 2009: 20 2010: 13 2010: 13 25 Yr avg: 18 Arabian Sea & Bay of Bengal 2006: 5 2006: 5 2007: 6 2007: 6 2008: 7 2008: 7 2009: 5 2009: 5 2010: 5 2010: 5 25 Yr avg: 5 25 Yr avg: 5

23. UNCLASSIFIED Developing cyclone Weak cyclones hard to locate TD to TS intensity TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGES Formation Guam (Micronesia)

24. UNCLASSIFIED Near Okinawa, Taiwan, Luzon At or near maximum intensity Super Typhoon area Recurvature and/or erratic motion area (slow motion) TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGES Maturation

25. UNCLASSIFIED North of Okinawa TC Weakening Acceleration: stronger winds on right side Extratropical transition can also occur TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGES Dissipation

26. UNCLASSIFIED JTWC TRACK ERRORS (WESTPAC - 24-72 Hours) 24 Hr 48 Hr 72 Hr 2006 64 106 151 2007 61 100 147 2008 66120 198 2009 66123 183 2010 59101 160 Goal 50 100 150

27. UNCLASSIFIED JTWC TRACK ERRORS (WESTPAC - 96-120 Hours) 96 Hr 120 Hr 2006 216 309 2007 187 214 2008 301447 2009 258 296 2010 223279 Goal 200 250

28. UNCLASSIFIED JTWC INTENSITY ERRORS (WESTPAC 24 - 120 Hours)

29. UNCLASSIFIED 29 2011 HIGHLIGHTS Research & Development Operations Continuity of Operations Capability (COOP) Low/Medium/High Suspect Area Designation Process Improvement w/input from Field Units ATCF Version Update 2012 Tropical Cyclone Conference Research & Science Intensity Model(s) Improvements Impact of Typhoons on the Oceans in the Pacific/Tropical Cyclone Structure 2010 (TCS-10) Data Collection

30. UNCLASSIFIED 30 CONTACT INFORMATION Director: robert.falvey@navy.mil (808) 474-5301 Technical Advisor edward.fukada@navy.mil (808) 474-5304 JT Ops Officer (JTOPS) sarah.follett@navy.mil (808) 471-4597

31. UNCLASSIFIED 31 Questions? THANK YOU!