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September 4, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 1 Forecast Verification.

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Presentation on theme: "September 4, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 1 Forecast Verification."— Presentation transcript:

1 September 4, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 1 Forecast Verification

2 September 4, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 2 Spatial pentad mean pattern

3 23 June 2016SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 3 Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 31July-4 August, 2013 CFS GFSbc P4-lead, IC 15 July P3-lead, IC 20 July P2-lead, IC 25 July P1-lead, IC 30 July ActualAnomaly Forecast valid for Period 31July-4Aug

4 23 June 2016SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 4 Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 5-9 August, 2013 CFS GFSbc P4-lead, IC 20 July P3-lead, IC 25 July P2-lead, IC 30 July P1-lead, IC 4 Aug ActualAnomaly Forecast valid for Period 5-9Aug

5 23 June 2016SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 5 Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 10-14 August, 2013 CFS GFSbc P4-lead, IC 25 July P3-lead, IC 30 July P2-lead, IC 4 Aug P1-lead, IC 9 Aug ActualAnomaly Forecast valid for Period 10-14Aug

6 23 June 2016SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 6 Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 15-19 August, 2013 CFS GFSbc P4-lead, IC 30 July P3-lead, IC 4 Aug P2-lead, IC 9 Aug P1-lead, IC 14 Aug ActualAnomaly Forecast valid for Period 15-19Aug

7 23 June 2016SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 7 Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 20-24 August, 2013 CFS GFSbc P4-lead, IC 4 Aug P3-lead, IC 9 Aug P2-lead, IC 14 Aug P1-lead, IC 19 Aug ActualAnomaly Forecast valid for Period 20-24Aug

8 23 June 2016SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 8 Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 25-29 August, 2013 CFS GFSbc P4-lead, IC 9 Aug P3-lead, IC 14 Aug P2-lead, IC 19 Aug P1-lead, IC 24 Aug ActualAnomaly Forecast valid for Period 25-29Aug

9 23 June 2016SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 9 Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 30 Aug-4 Sep, 2013 CFS GFSbc P4-lead, IC 14 Aug P3-lead, IC 19 Aug P2-lead, IC 24 Aug P1-lead, IC 29 Aug Actual Forecast valid for Period 30 Aug-3 Sep Anomaly

10 23 June 2016SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 10 Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 4 - 8 Sep, 2013 P4-lead, IC 19 Aug P3-lead, IC 24 Aug P2-lead, IC 29 Aug P1-lead, IC 3 Sep Actual Forecast valid for Period 4 -8 Sep Anomaly CFS GFSbc

11 23 June 2016SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 11 CFS-GFS Forecast Verification Over Homogenous Regions MZI, CEI, NEI, NWI & SPI

12 CFS, CEI

13 GFSbc, CEI

14 CFS, MZI

15 GFSbc, MZI

16 CFS, NEI

17 GFSbc, NEI

18 CFS, NWI

19 GFSbc, NWI

20 CFS, SPI

21 GFSbc, SPI

22 4 Aug IC MISO F/C verification For 25 Days 9 Aug IC

23 14 Aug IC MISO F/C verification For 25 Days 19 Aug IC Observation is for 20 Days


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