1. 12-5-2016 | Paul Lucas 1 Future energy system challenges for Africa: Insights from Integrated Assessment Models 1 st Africa Sustainable Development Forum

2. Energy-system challenges in Africa  13% of global population; 2% of GDP; 6% of energy use  3% of global CO 2 emissions; 84% from North Africa and RSA  57% of population has no excess to electricity  Ongoing development increases demand for energy services  Large potential for fossil and renewable electricity production  Potential trade-offs with climate, air, land, water, health, etc.  Integrated Assessment Models can support decision making

3. IMAGE3.0: Integrated Assessment Model Strong earth system focus Describes HD and GEC and their interlinkages 1.Focus on integrated land and climate system 2.Impacts on HD, water, biodiversity, N cycle, etc. 3.Possible response strategies Used for many international scenario studies: IPCC, CBD, UNEP, OECD, … http://www.pbl.nl/IMAGE 1 2 3

4. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs)  Model different sub-systems and their interactions within a coherent framework  Link across issues, time and scale  Help to address feasibility, synergies and trade-offs, inertia and required effort of reaching multiple targets  Help to make goals and targets transparent and to track progress

5. ‘Future energy system challenges for Africa’  How does Africa’s energy system evolve under BAU assumptions and with a global C-tax to reach the 2 O C target?  Part of scoping for African scenario study (afternoon workshop)  Based on results from six global IAMs (not dedicated to Africa)  Focus on robust trends; not on individual model results  Assessed indicators –Energy use, energy mix, CO 2 emissions –International trade in energy resources –Household access to modern sources of energy Lucas, P.L. et al. (2015). Future energy system challenges for Africa: insights from Integrated Assessment Models. Energy Policy 86: 705–717

6. ‘Future energy system challenges for Africa’  How does Africa’s energy system evolve under BAU assumptions and with a global C-tax to reach the 2 O C target?  Part of scoping for African scenario study (afternoon workshop)  Based on results from six global IAMs (not dedicated to Africa)  Focus on robust trends; not on individual model results  Assessed indicators –Energy use, energy mix, CO 2 emissions –International trade in energy resources –Household access to modern sources of energy Lucas, P.L. et al. (2015). Future energy system challenges for Africa: insights from Integrated Assessment Models. Energy Policy 86: 705–717

7. Global Shares 201020502100 Population 13% [12%-15%]21% [18%-23%]28% [22%-33%] GDP 2% [1%-2%]4% [3%-6%]13% [5%-18%] Primary energy use 4% [3%-6%]8% [3%-10%]15% [3%-19%] CO2 emissions 3% [1%-4%]7% [2%-9%]12% [3%-23%] Energy use and CO 2 emissions: BAU scenarios  Models agree in trends; large absolute differences  Africa’s relevant on the long-term for reaching the 2 O C target

8. Trade in fossil fuels: BAU scenarios  Production of fossil fuels is projected to shifts from export driven to consumption driven

9. Energy use and CO 2 emissions: 2 O C scenarios  Potential for leap-frogging to low-carbon technologies  Rapid expansion requires mitigation action well before 2050

10. Conclusions  Policy conclusions –Africa’s share in global CO 2 emissions really significant after 2050 –Important to align the investment peak with climate policy –Transition from export driven to consumption driven fossil fuel use  Model conclusions –Agreement on overall trends; large quantitative differences –Differences in regional definitions, data sources, projections for key drivers and model dynamics –African issues are not always properly addressed in global models

11. Time for an African model intercomparison study  Modelled after the Energy Modelling Forum –Use multiple models to improve understanding of energy and associated environmental problems –US and Global studies, but recently also Asia and Latin America  Relevance for Africa –Strengthen modelling capacity and support energy planning –Improve African representation in global models –Exchange knowledge and data and guide model developments

12. Thanks for your attention http://www.pbl.nl/IMAGE Lucas, P.L. et al. (2015). Future energy system challenges for Africa: insights from Integrated Assessment Models. Energy Policy 86: 705–717 Van Vuuren, D.P. et al. (2015). Pathways to achieve a set of ambitious global sustainability objectives by 2050. Explorations using the IMAGE integrated assessment model. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 98: 303-323