1. 1 Emission and Air Quality Trends Review 1999-2011 Wisconsin July 2013

2. 2 Project Objective  To develop and present publicly available information on trends in emissions and ambient air quality in the U.S. since 1999 in easy to understand visual and tabular formats

3. 3 Emission Trends  Study Team collected and processed U.S. EPA emission inventories for years within the study period of interest (1999-2011)  By pollutant and source category electric utility coal fuel combustion mobile sources industrial fuel combustion & industrial processes all other

4. 4 Emissions Data Summary  Data Obtained from EPA National Emission Inventory (NEI) and Trends Websites EPA’s Trends reports and emission comparisons include interpolations of all categories between key years (1999, 2002, 2005, 2008, 2011) at county-pollutant level Represented Pollutants: VOC, NOx, SO 2, and PM 2.5  Project Improvement The Study Team augmented above data with year specific CEM emissions (2002 through 2011)

5. 5 Emission Changes  The following slides also include the tonnage-based emissions change from 1999 to 2011 for each pollutant  Negative values indicate decrease in emissions, positive values indicate an increase

6. 6 Wisconsin Emission Trends (VOC) Annual Emissions (Tons) Source Category1999200120032005200620072008200920102011 Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion788768906638602599574486522622 Mobile Sources194,575180,602203,765198,540189,674180,808155,068149,685144,302135,697 Industrial Fuel Combustion & Processes225,681207,192236,827188,456186,866185,276183,686182,095180,505162,688 All Others286115287192179173155140128157 Total421,329388,677441,785387,826377,321366,854339,483332,406325,457299,164 Annual Emissions Change (Percent since 1999) Source Category1999200120032005200620072008200920102011 Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion0%-2%15%-19%-24% -27%-38%-34%-21% Mobile Sources0%-7%5%2%-3%-7%-20%-23%-26%-30% Industrial Fuel Combustion & Processes0%-8%5%-16%-17%-18%-19% -20%-28% All Others0%-60%0%-33%-37%-40%-46%-51%-55%-45% Total0%-8%5%-8%-10%-13%-19%-21%-23%-29%

7. 7 Wisconsin Emission Trends (VOC)

8. 8 Wisconsin Emission Trends (NOx) Annual Emissions (Tons) Source Category1999200120032005200620072008200920102011 Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion107,22199,92779,75166,29157,78350,42243,73030,77730,55030,049 Mobile Sources256,479241,300239,801266,646254,056241,466187,416184,676181,936173,514 Industrial Fuel Combustion & Processes68,41070,15461,28562,20161,79261,42661,06760,65260,31358,583 All Others5,4065,6784,1105,3784,3894,1893,9192,8462,4601,971 Total437,516417,059384,947400,516378,020357,504296,132278,952275,259264,117 Annual Emissions Change (Percent since 1999) Source Category1999200120032005200620072008200920102011 Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion0%-7%-26%-38%-46%-53%-59%-71%-72% Mobile Sources0%-6%-7%4%-1%-6%-27%-28%-29%-32% Industrial Fuel Combustion & Processes0%3%-10%-9%-10% -11% -12%-14% All Others0%5%-24%-1%-19%-23%-28%-47%-55%-64% Total0%-5%-12%-8%-14%-18%-32%-36%-37%-40%

9. 9 Wisconsin Emission Trends (NOx)

10. 10 Wisconsin Emission Trends (SO 2 ) Annual Emissions (Tons) Source Category1999200120032005200620072008200920102011 Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion209,008187,264188,197173,548158,573131,561121,92497,818103,82390,976 Mobile Sources13,85513,05714,77610,9319,5368,1415,0224,0783,1351,420 Industrial Fuel Combustion & Processes112,774118,24474,02475,47974,10472,79471,68170,31269,24457,575 All Others1,3751,2501,4341,3351,6021,5131,273757658673 Total337,011319,815278,431261,292243,816214,009199,900172,966176,860150,644 Annual Emissions Change (Percent since 1999) Source Category1999200120032005200620072008200920102011 Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion0%-10% -17%-24%-37%-42%-53%-50%-56% Mobile Sources0%-6%7%-21%-31%-41%-64%-71%-77%-90% Industrial Fuel Combustion & Processes0%5%-34%-33%-34%-35%-36%-38%-39%-49% All Others0%-9%4%-3%17%10%-7%-45%-52%-51% Total0%-5%-17%-22%-28%-36%-41%-49%-48%-55%

11. 11 Wisconsin Emission Trends (SO 2 )

12. 12 Wisconsin Emission Trends (PM 2.5 ) Annual Emissions (Tons) Source Category1999200120032005200620072008200920102011 Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion7,6776,2225,1954,2023,9993,9473,8703,1783,3151,986 Mobile Sources10,8069,8939,80811,57011,07810,58710,22710,0749,9239,516 Industrial Fuel Combustion & Processes32,02840,69032,05433,29433,16733,05132,94132,80932,69448,502 All Others62,18351,87230,76830,70630,71530,71630,71130,70230,69740,510 Total112,693108,67877,82479,77178,95978,30177,74876,76476,629100,514 Annual Emissions Change (Percent since 1999) Source Category1999200120032005200620072008200920102011 Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion0%-19%-32%-45%-48%-49%-50%-59%-57%-74% Mobile Sources0%-8%-9%7%3%-2%-5%-7%-8%-12% Industrial Fuel Combustion & Processes0%27%0%4% 3% 2% 51% All Others0%-17%-51% -35% Total0%-4%-31%-29%-30%-31% -32% -11%

13. 13 Wisconsin Emission Trends (PM 2.5 )

14. 14 Emission Trends Summary  All pollutants have decreased since 1999 in aggregate across Wisconsin  NOx and SO2 from Electric Utility Fuel Combustion sources show significant decrease over time as a result of Acid Rain Program, NOx Budget Trading Program and CAIR control implementation  Onroad emission step increase seen between 2004 and 2005 is the result of EPA’s method change and MOVES model integration for estimating onroad mobile source emissions

15. 15 Air Quality Design Values  Ozone Annual 4 th highest daily maximum 8-hour average averaged over three consecutive years Current standard = 0.075 ppm  PM 2.5 Annual Annual arithmetic mean of quarterly means averaged over three consecutive years Current standard = 12 ug/m 3  PM 2.5 24-Hour Annual 98 th percentile of daily averages averaged over three consecutive years Current standard = 35 ug/m 3

16. 16 State-Wide Design Value (DV) Trends  Trends in state-wide maximum DV and average DV Max DV: Maximum DVs over all valid trend monitoring sites in the state in each overlapping three year period Average DV: Average of DVs over all valid trend monitoring sites in the state in each overlapping three year period  Compute linear trend via least-squares regression

17. 17 Data Handling Procedures  O 3 design value (DV) for each overlapping three- year period starting with 1999-2001 and ending with 2009-2011 DV calculated using annual 4 th highest daily max 8-hr averages and percent of valid observations, based on EPA data handling conventions Data associated with exceptional events that have received EPA concurrence are omitted Selection of trend sites require valid DV in 9 out of 11 three-year periods between 1999 and 2011 Identification of nonattainment areas is with respect to the 2008 8-hour standard only

18. 18 Data Handling Procedures  Annual PM 2.5 DV and 24-hr PM 2.5 DV for each overlapping three-year period starting with 1999- 2001 and ending with 2009-2011 DV calculations based on EPA data handling conventions Data extracted from monitors that have a non- regulatory monitoring type are omitted Selection of trend sites require valid DV in 9 out of 11 three-year periods between 1999 and 2011

19. 19 Trend Calculation  Trends based on linear least squares fit to rolling three year design values (DVs)  Negative trend indicates improving air quality  DVs based on each 3-year period: 1999-2001, 2000- 2002, … 2009-2011  Notes On plots, DVs are for three year period ending in year shown (i.e., 2009-2011 DV plotted as 2011 value) Ozone trend values expressed as ppb/year (1,000 ppb = 1 ppm); DVs are plotted as ppm Scale in units of ppm Trend in units of ppb/year

20. 20 Max/Ave O 3 DVs and Trend

21. 21 Ozone Trends by Site in Wisconsin Note: Only monitoring sites meeting data completeness criteria listed Monitoring SitesCounty 2009-2011 DV [ppm] Trend [ppm/yr] 5500900264420101Brown, WI0.065-1.83 5502100154420101Columbia, WI0.064-1.53 5502500414420101Dane, WI0.063-1.55 5502700074420101Dodge, WIN/A-1.82 5502900044420101Door, WI0.074-2.10 5503700014420101Florence, WIN/A-1.18 5503900064420101Fond du Lac, WI0.067-1.61 5505500024420101Jefferson, WI0.067-1.96 5505900194420101Kenosha, WI0.077-2.75 5506100024420101Kewaunee, WI0.073-2.14

22. 22 Ozone Trends by Site in Wisconsin Note: Only monitoring sites meeting data completeness criteria listed Monitoring SitesCounty 2009-2011 DV [ppm] Trend [ppm/yr] 5507100074420101Manitowoc, WI0.077-1.79 5507300124420101Marathon, WI0.061-1.35 5507900264420101Milwaukee, WIN/A-1.58 5507900414420101Milwaukee, WIN/A-1.73 5507900854420101Milwaukee, WIN/A-2.25 5508500044420101Oneida, WIN/A-0.62 5508700094420101Outagamie, WI0.066-1.46 5508900084420101Ozaukee, WI0.072-2.38 5508900094420101Ozaukee, WI0.073-2.78 5510100174420101Racine, WI0.075-2.30

23. 23 Ozone Trends by Site in Wisconsin Note: Only monitoring sites meeting data completeness criteria listed Monitoring SitesCounty 2009-2011 DV [ppm] Trend [ppm/yr] 5510500244420101Rock, WI0.067-2.12 5510910024420101St. Croix, WIN/A-0.98 5511100074420101Sauk, WI0.062-1.46 5511700064420101Sheboygan, WI0.081-2.15 5512300084420101Vernon, WIN/A-0.87 5512500014420101Vilas, WIN/A-0.48 5512700054420101Walworth, WI0.067-1.92 5513100094420101Washington, WIN/A-2.49

24. 24 Max/Ave PM 2.5 Annual DVs and Trend

25. 25 Max/Ave PM 2.5 24-Hour DVs and Trend

26. 26 PM 2.5 Trends by Site in Wisconsin Note: Only monitoring sites meeting data completeness criteria listed 2009-2011 DV [ug/m 3 ] Trend [ug/m 3 per year] Monitoring SiteCountyAnnual24-HrAnnual DV24-Hr DV 550090005Brown10.433-0.050.25 550250047Dane10.629-0.15-0.40 550270007DodgeN/A -0.08-0.75 550430009Grant10.729-0.030.01 550590019Kenosha9.728-0.10-0.16 550710007ManitowocN/A 0.030.02 550790010Milwaukee11.132-0.17-0.35 550790026Milwaukee10.831-0.09 550790099MilwaukeeN/A 0.00-0.03 550870009Outagamie9.831-0.060.16 551250001Vilas6.1210.000.99 551330027Waukesha11.731-0.12-0.43

27. 27 Air Quality Trends Summary  Average O 3 design values have decreased since 1999 in Wisconsin, but average PM 2.5 design values have remained steady since 1999 in Wisconsin  O 3 and PM 2.5 design values have decreased since 1999 in all currently designated O 3 and PM 2.5 non-attainment areas