1. U N I T E D S T A T E S D E P A R T M E N T O F C O M M E R C E N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N CPC Winter 2015-2016 Outlook Jon Gottschalck Chief, Operational Prediction Branch NOAA / NWS / Climate Prediction Center SECART Webinar November 19, 2015

2. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Outline Latest El Nino outlook Review of climate forecast tools and description of CPC winter outlook Other factors that may influence the winter 2015-2016 2

3. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Outline Latest El Nino outlook Review of climate forecast tools and description of CPC winter outlook Other factors that may influence the winter 2015-2016 3

4. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Sea Surface Temperatures Red: Warmer than normal Blue: Colder than normal 4

5. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Nino3.4 Model Forecasts 5

6. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N El Nino Outlook El Niño will likely peak during the winter 2015-16 A transition to ENSO-neutral is anticipated during the late spring or early summer 2016

7. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Outline Latest El Nino outlook Review of climate forecast tools and description of CPC winter outlook Other factors that may influence the winter 2015-2016 7

8. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N El Nino Temperatures 8 1982-19831997-1998 Dec-Jan-Feb Jan-Feb-Mar

9. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Constructed Analogue Temperature Objective combination of closely matching analogues based on global ocean surface temperature patterns 9 Red: Warmer than normal Blue: Colder than normal

10. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Computer Model Forecasts Objective combination of seven short term climate prediction models 10

11. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Dec-Jan-Feb Outlook Warmer than normal temperatures are favored for the lower Ohio Valley and southern mid-Atlantic. Below normal temperatures are favored for parts of Texas and western Gulf coast Odds are elevated for less frequent and shorter duration cold air outbreaks entering U.S. South Texas Below: 45% Near: 33% Above: 22% North Carolina Below: 30% Near: 33% Above: 37% Alabama Below: 33% Near: 33% Above: 33%

12. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Jan-Feb-Mar Outlook

13. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N El Nino Precipitation Variability Strong El Nino events since 1950 13

14. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Constructed Analogue Precipitation Objective combination of closely matching analogues based on global SST patterns 14 Green: Wetter than normal Yellow: Drier than normal

15. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Computer Model Forecasts Objective combination of seven short term climate prediction models 15

16. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Dec-Jan-Feb Outlook Above normal precipitation is favored for most of Southeast U.S. Odds are elevated for a southern shifted storm track, potential heavy precipitation events Elevated wintertime severe weather threat for Southeast Central Texas Below: 12% Near: 33% Above: 55% Arkansas Below: 33% Near: 33% Above: 33% N. Florida Below: 3% Near: 27% Above: 70%

17. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Jan-Feb-Mar Outlook

18. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Outline Latest El Nino outlook Review of climate forecast tools and description of CPC winter outlook Other factors that may influence the winter 2015-2016 18

19. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Other Factors Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation A major source of intraseasonal variability over the U. S., Atlantic and Europe during winter Modulates the circulation pattern over the high latitudes thereby regulating the number and intensity of significant weather events affecting the U.S., such as cold air outbreaks

20. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N El Nino and Potential Impacts El Niño changes the odds for certain impacts. The % shift tends to be larger for stronger El Niño events. but, impacts are never guaranteed in seasonal climate prediction because there are unpredictable elements that influence the result.

21. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Winter Outlook Summary 21 Strong El Nino in progress and is forecast to continue through winter Primary driver of the CPC 2015-16 winter outlook Winter potential impacts:  Warmer than normal temperatures on average across parts of the southern mid-Atlantic and northern Tennessee Valley  Colder than normal across Texas, western Gulf coast  Odds elevated for less frequent/shorter duration cold air outbreaks  Southern shifted storm track favors above normal precipitation with the potential for some strong storms  Elevated risk for severe weather across the Southeast

22. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Questions / Suggestions Thank you for your time and attention Feel free to contact me anytime via e-mail if you have questions Jon.Gottschalck@noaa.gov 22

23. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N El Nino Temperatures 23 Temperature anomalies for strong El Nino events (1981-2010 climatology)

24. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Computer Model Forecasts Temperature Anomalies Seven short term climate model predictions for Dec-Jan-Feb 24

25. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Computer Model Forecasts 25 Precipitation Anomalies Seven short term climate model predictions for Dec-Jan-Feb