1. RAPT 2002-1 EAK 6/18/2016 MIT Lincoln Laboratory Route Availability Planning Tool: A case study Rich DeLaura and Shawn Allan richd@ll.mit.edu sallan@ll.mit.edu MIT Lincoln Laboratory

2. ATM2003-2 SSA 6/18/2016M Outline Background Motivation: Departure delays – cost and opportunity Study goals and methods RAPT/eRapt description: Operational model Case study Improvements: RAPT 2003 Summary and future work

3. MIT Lincoln Laboratory ATM2003-3 SSA 6/18/2016M Background Prototype Integrated Terminal Weather System with 0-1 hour animated self scoring forecast Funded by Port Authority of NYNJ FAA users have driven ideas for development of new products including: Winter weather forecast Departure planning tool Ceiling and visibility prediction 10 % increase in dep capacity –8000 hrs delay saved Increased arr throughput –2000 hrs delay saved Sample of annual benefits

4. MIT Lincoln Laboratory ATM2003-4 SSA 6/18/2016M Why New York? CIWS Domain Air Traffic Density 09/12/02 1000 UTC – 09/13/02 1000 UTC # of aircraft

5. MIT Lincoln Laboratory ATM2003-5 SSA 6/18/2016M Air Traffic Impacts 2002 Storm Season 50 Delay < 1 hr Ground Stop Ground Delay Program 262923 10313250 23427 1 22 9 0 10 1 19 0 291722 1 12 7 7 5 Delay >1 hr O’Hare Cincinnati Detroit Pittsburgh Dulles Newark Boston # days with: May – August 2002

6. MIT Lincoln Laboratory ATM2003-6 SSA 6/18/2016M Current National Airspace Choke Points 1.Westgate Departures, NY TRACON 2.Northgate Departures, NY TRACON and ZNY 3.ZDC - Mid-Atlantic Sectors 4.Jet Route 547 Westbound 5.Great Lakes Corridor 6.High Altitude Holding for East Coast Arrival Streams 7.Departure Access to Overhead Streams Source: FAA Airport Capacity Enhancement plan www.faa.gov/ats/asc Impacts to New York Departure Flows

7. MIT Lincoln Laboratory ATM2003-7 SSA 6/18/2016M Benefits of Increased Departure Throughput Hours of delay saved 485 90130 135 +3 dep 335 6090 95 +2 dep 180 3050 +1 dep N90TEBJFKLGAEWR Throughput increase Increasing departure rate by 3 aircraft per hour cuts departure delay 25%

8. MIT Lincoln Laboratory ATM2003-8 SSA 6/18/2016M Study Goals and Methods Goals Using the Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT) can we: Identify missed opportunities to launch departures Assess the impact of the operations model on route selection guidance Method 19 April 2002 case study Determine route specific departure capacity Compare departure throughputs: –Actual –RAPT –eRAPT

9. MIT Lincoln Laboratory ATM2003-9 SSA 6/18/2016M Guidance for Route Selection Two factors affecting departure throughput Weather forecast 19 April 2002 case study –Eliminated component: “true” weather used to calculate route status –Routes lengthened to eliminate distant weather effects Model of operations 19 April 2002 case study of westbound departures –What blocks/impacts a route? –What are aircraft routing strategies?

10. MIT Lincoln Laboratory ATM2003-10 SSA 6/18/2016M 18301930 2030 2130 Identifying Departure Throughput Opportunities 19 April 2002

11. MIT Lincoln Laboratory ATM2003-11 SSA 6/18/2016M RAPT 2002 RAPT predicts which future departures will be: BLOCKED (red time blocks) IMPACTED (yellow time blocks) CLEAR (green time blocks) *Clicking on a block brings up a movie loop of the forecast and the selected departure. RAPT uses: Fixed departure routes Departure status uses level 3 VIL intersection

12. MIT Lincoln Laboratory ATM2003-12 SSA 6/18/2016M Calculating Departure Capacity Upper Bound Impact = Clear Lower bound Impact = Block Calculate capacity from max “fair weather rate” Block = zero rate, Clear = max rate Level 3 Level 2 CLEAR IMPACTEDBLOCKED Route status determination

13. MIT Lincoln Laboratory ATM2003-13 SSA 6/18/2016M What Blocks/Impacts a Route? Departures penetrate Level 3 VIL & Tops>24kft (RAPT BLOCKED) Departures avoid Level 2 VIL & Tops>24kft at leading edge of storm (RAPT CLEAR) Storm motion 1900-2000Z, April 19, 2002 (VIL, Echo Tops: 1930Z) Current metric: Level 3 VIL RAPT BLOCKED routes RAPT CLEAR routes

14. MIT Lincoln Laboratory ATM2003-14 SSA 6/18/2016M Full trajectory 0-20 min flight time RAPT Lev 3 VIL 24kf contour Hazard Lev 2 VIL Incorporating Echo Tops… eRAPT Incorporating Echo Tops… 20+ min flight time eRAPT Altitude (feet) Twenty minutes into flight, aircraft have reached 30,000 ft. Since we are using real weather and not a forecast for route status, echo tops can be incorporated in eRAPT. Real-time echo tops forecast does not yet exist.

15. MIT Lincoln Laboratory ATM2003-15 SSA 6/18/2016M Impact of Echo Tops on Route Guidance LGA_ELIOT_J80 LGA_PARKE_J6 LGA_LANNA_J48 LGA_BIGGY_J75 LGA_LANNA_J48 LGA_PARKE_J6 LGA_ELIOT_J80 No echo top information Echo top (< 24 Kft.) fly-over permitted 20 minutes after departure Departure Time BLOCKEDIMPACTEDCLEAR eRAPT identifies 30 extra departure opportunities between 1800 and 2000.

16. MIT Lincoln Laboratory ATM2003-16 SSA 6/18/2016M eRAPT Capacity Bounds Actual vs Achievable New York Westbound Departures Assumes aircraft fly over storms

17. MIT Lincoln Laboratory ATM2003-17 SSA 6/18/2016M RAPT Capacity Bounds Actual vs Achievable New York Westbound Departures Assumes no aircraft fly over storms

18. MIT Lincoln Laboratory ATM2003-18 SSA 6/18/2016M Departure QueueaverageeRAPT average RAPT average maxeRAPT max RAPT max Actual 38 109 IMPACT=BLOCK 3068 173161 IMPACT=CLEAR 5 202671 eRAPT upper bound unrealistic RAPT lower bound unrealistic Conclusion: operational model needs refinement! Departure Queue

19. MIT Lincoln Laboratory ATM2003-19 SSA 6/18/2016M Route Merging 4 – as – 1 Four jet routes used as single stream of traffic – J6 in this case. RAPT route guidance does not reflect this fact. Status for static routes may not match operational needs J48BLOCKED J75BLOCKED J80BLOCKED J6IMPACTED J48,J75 J6, J80 25% Capacity measure may sometimes be more useful

20. MIT Lincoln Laboratory ATM2003-20 SSA 6/18/2016M Applying the results…

21. MIT Lincoln Laboratory ATM2003-21 SSA 6/18/2016M Blockage score (0-100) takes into account… –Strength of weather (includes contributions from levels 1-6) –Area & portion (center or edge) of path blocked –Percentage of route width blocked by level 3 or greater Departure status based on blockage score –CLEAR, PARTLY CLEAR, IMPACT, BLOCK Score indicates degree and severity of blockage, reduces ambiguity in route status Reducing the Ambiguous Range - RAPT 2003 Algorithm

22. MIT Lincoln Laboratory ATM2003-22 SSA 6/18/2016M RAPT 2003 Blockage Score Flight path segment divided into regions of higher and lower weather impact Direction of flight 8 km Medium Low High Medium Low CLEARPARTLY CLEAR IMPACTBLOCK Level 3 Level 2

23. MIT Lincoln Laboratory ATM2003-23 SSA 6/18/2016M Illustrating New Route Status 00 24 In previous algorithm each of these examples would have been assigned a status of yellow or “impacted”. 19 Old status New status

24. MIT Lincoln Laboratory ATM2003-24 SSA 6/18/2016M RAPT 2003 Display Departure route animation Blockage scores Animation of all routes & departures (for selected airport): Text is minute departure released Color is departure status Filled contours are forecast Forecast score in lower left Status colors: CLEAR, PTL CLEAR, IMPACT, BLOCK Route display selections: airport, jetway or fix Departure status timeline Display tools: (zoom, pan, feedback email, overlays) Display options J95 J36 J60 J80 J6 J48 J75 J209

25. MIT Lincoln Laboratory ATM2003-25 SSA 6/18/2016M Summary RAPT developed as result of departure flow bottlenecks in northeastern USA Proposed model for measuring lost opportunity –need to reduce ambiguity in route selection guidance –Aircraft altitude wrt to echo tops very important for assessing route availability Future work will focus on: –Developing and incorporating echo tops forecast –Coupling forecast uncertainty to route status –Integration with departure management systems DSP ASDE-X SMS –Integration with arrival management systems