1. The 21 st Century Wildland Firefighting Triangle

2. What is this triangle? A look at the changing fire environment for today’s wildland firefighters A tool to stimulate a discussion on firefighter’s adaptations to a new set of conditions An addition to existing triangle

3. ??? LET’S START CONSTRUCTION I’ve got a feeling I’m not going to like this…

4. INCREASED FUEL LOADING

5. A BRIEF HISTORY ON HUMAN TINKERING 1911 - "Weeks Act" provides western states with funding for widespread wildfire suppression [1] 1935 - the Forest Service adopted the policy of “all fires out by 10 AM” the morning after detection [2] 1998 – increasingly significant wildfires ignite a major review of wildfire suppression policies Current – attempts to return to a natural fire cycle through wildland fire use and prescribed burning techniques [1] U.S. Forest Service History, The Weeks Act, Forest History Society, 6/8/2011 [2] Pyne, S. Fire in America: A Cultural History of Wildland and Rural Fire

6. TOUGH TO FIX OVERNIGHT Approximately 80,000 wildfires each year, roughly 265 are allowed to burn as wildland fire use [1] 1998-2008 Wildfire Use – average 187,416 acres per year [2] 2015 Wildfires –10,125,149 acres [2] Overgrown forests commonly consist of 100 to 200 trees per acre, compared to a healthy forest of 40 to 60 trees per acre [3] Ponderosa Pine forest should have low intensity fires - 5 to 25 years [4] [1] Rocky Barker, American Forests, Surviving Wildfire [2] National Interagency Fire Statistics Report [3] San Bernardino County, Health Forest Initiative Program [4] Idaho Forest Products Commission

7. SOMETHING’S DIFFERENT… 1899 1994

8. Increased Fuel Loading ?? ONE SIDE IN - TWO TO GO What could be next?

9. HIGHER TEMPERATURES

10. IT’S GETTING HOT IN HERE Summertime temps in western North America are projected to be 3.6 F to 9 F degrees higher by mid-century [1] Snowpack melting 1 to 4 weeks earlier than it did 50 years ago [1] By the end of this century, once-in-20-year extreme heat days are projected to occur every two or three years [2] [1] National Wildlife Federation -Threats-to-Wildlife/Global Warming and Wildfire [2] NASA - climate.nasa.gov/effects/

11. Annual Max Temp in Colorado from 1895-2015 NOAA - National Climate Data Center Graph

12. Summer Max Temp in Colorado from 1895-2015 NOAA - National Climate Data Center Graph -Situational awareness

13. Increased Fuel Loading ? Higher Temperatures THE BUILD CONTINUES What to add to hotter overgrown forests?

14. MORE VALUES AT RISK!

15. National Wildland Urban Interface 4.5 million homes at high or extreme risk from wildfire [1] Since 1990, 60% of home construction has occurred in the WUI [2] 2 million acres a year are added to WUI classification [2] [1] Insurance Journal Report 06/10/2015 [2] www.whitehouse.gov/pressrelease/11/09/2015

16. Colorado Wildfire Exposure $ In Billions…with a B Low Risk – $18.63 Moderate Risk – $11.53 High Risk – $14.58 Extreme Risk – $13.91 Ranks 2 nd in the US with 16.9% of total homes at high or extreme risk [1] [1] Insurance Information Institute www.iii.org/factsheet

17. BOULDER COUNTY WUI Study based on number of acres existing in the Wildland Urban Interface -ranked as the county with the highest wildfire risk in Colorado [1] -ranked the 10th highest risk county in the United States [1] [1] Understanding change: Wildfire in Boulder County, Colorado. Res. RMRS-RN-57. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service 10/2013

18. 2010 Wildland Urban Interface Map ecowest.org/2013/06/20/mapping- the-wildland-urban-interface Dark Green – no housing Light Green – very low density housing Yellow - housing and vegetation intermingle Red - housing in the vicinity of contiguous wildland vegetation

19. Increased Fuel Loading More Values at Risk Higher Temperatures THE 21 st CENTURY TRIANGLE IS COMPLETE Hmm…I knew I wasn’t going to like this presentation

20. COLORADO WILDFIRE TRENDS 2002 – Hayman - 137,760 acres, 5 deaths, 133 homes lost - 1 st largest fire by acreage 2010 – Four Mile – 6,181, 169 homes lost - 4 th most destructive fire 2012 – High Park – 87,284 acres, 1 death, 248 homes lost - 3 rd most destructive fire 2012 – Waldo Canyon – 18,247 acres, 2 deaths, 346 homes lost - 2 nd most destructive fire 2013 – Black Forest – 14,280 acres, 2 deaths, 511 homes lost - 1 st most destructive fire 2013 – West Fork Fire – 110,405 acres – 2 nd largest fire by acreage

21. NOT ALL BAD NEWS! Reducing the Fuel Loading -Wildfire mitigation becoming more prevalent Returning Wildfire to the Environment -Number of Prescribed Fires in 1999 - 4,277 -Number of Prescribed Fires in 2015 – 37,263 [1] Improvement in WUI building codes and community planning for wildfire events [1] National Interagency Report

22. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR YOU? The wildland fire situation is changing – let’s change with it Time to revisit our wildland firefighting concepts -Situational awareness -Trigger points -Review of strategies and tactics