1. DEMAND FORCASTING

2. Introduction: Demand forecasting means expectation about the future course of the market demand for a product. Demand forecasting is based on the statistical data about past behaviors and empirical relationships of the demand determinants. Demand forecasting gives a reliable approximation regarding the possible outcome,with a reasonable accuracy. It is based on the mathematical laws of probability

3. SO WHAT “ IS ” DEMAND F ORECASTING?

4. What is Demand Forecasting? Demand forecasting is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that consumers will purchase. Demand forecasting involves techniques including both informal methods, such as educated guesses, and quantitative methods, such as the use of historical sales data or current data from test markets.

5. LEVELS OF DEMAND FORECASTIONING MICRO LEVEL: It refers to the demand forecasting by the individual business firm for estimating the demand for its products. INDUSTRY LEVEL: It refers to demand estimate for the product of the industry as the whole. It relates to the market demand as a whole. MACRO LEVEL: It refers to the aggregate demand for the industrial output by the nation as the whole.

6. THE SIGNIFICANCE OF DEMAND FORECASTING  PRODUCTION PLANNING  SALES FORECASTING  CONTROL OF BUSINESS  INVENTORY CONTROL  GROWTH AND LONG TERM INVESTMENT PROGRAMS  STABILITY  ECONOMIC PLANNING AND POLICY MAKING

7. TYPES OF DEMAND FORECASTING SHORT TERM FORECASTING  Relate to a period not exceeding a year.  Usually day to day information's which are concerned with tactical decisions under the given resource constraints ; as in the short run, the available resource scale of operations,etc, are fixed or unalterable, by and large.  In short term forecasting a firm is primarily concerned with the optimum utilization of its existing production capacity.

8. SHORT TERM FORECASTING SERVE THE FOLLOWING PURPOSE  EVOLVING SALES POLICY  DETERMING PRICE POLICY  EVOLVING A PURCHACE POLICY  FIXATION OF SALES  TARGETS  DETERTERMING SHORT-TERM FINANCIAL PLANNING

9. TYPES OF DEMAND FORECASTING LONG TERM FORECASTING  Refers to the forecasts prepared for long period during which the firm’s scale of operations or the production capacity may be expanded or reduced.  Long term forecasting permit alternatives in the scale of production differ from industry to industry and firm to firm.  Relates to in formations which are vital for undertaking strategic decisions of the business pertaining to its expansion or contradiction over a period of time.

10. LONG TERM FORCASTING SERVE THE PURPOSE  BUSINESS PLANNING:- Long demand potential will provide the required guidelines for Planning of a new business unit or for the expansion or Of the exiting one. Capital budgeting by a firm is based on the long term demand forecasting.  MANPOWER PLANNING:- It is essential to determine long-term sales forecast for an appropriate manpower planning by the firm in view of its long –term growth and progress of the business.  LONG-TERM FINANCIAL PLANNING: In the view of the long and sales forecasting and the production planning, it becomes easier for the firm to determine its long-term financial planning and programmers for raising the funds from the capital market.

11. Washington Policy and Analysis with the support of the American Gas Foundation conducted the study "Fueling the Future: Natural Gas & New Technologies for a Cleaner 21st Century" In 2020, emissions of carbon dioxide, the primary "greenhouse" gas, would be reduced by an estimated 930 million tons annually if the increased use of natural gas projected in this study is achieved. The use of natural gas would also reduce the United States' dependence on imported oil by an estimated 2.6 million barrels per day Further, due to the high quality of the natural gas system and natural gas appliances, energy consumption is 6 percent lower in the accelerated scenario than in the current scenario

12. FORECASTING METHODS SURVEY METHODS STATISTICAL METHODS Customer survey method Collective opinion method Reasoned opinion method Market experiments method Time series analysis Regression analysis Graphical method Semi- average method Moving average method Least square method

13. DEMAND FORCASTING IN E-BUSINESS In the economy of fierce competition on a global basis., The consumer or any potential buyer has access to information any time of the day and more product choices than ever. IBM has recently announced the next phase of adopting today's computing resources and Global connectivity technologies to run an e-business on demand: An on-demand e-business is embodied with end-to-end integrated processes across the entire company as well as with key partners, suppliers and customers such that the value chain as a whole can quickly respond to changes in demand, supply, customer preferences, market opportunity and competition-business technology to derive a number of benefits — new revenue sources, better delivery of products, and significant cost savings.

14. New Opportunities and Challenges in Demand Forecasting To exploit an opportunity, we need to be aware of the value of the different types of information and the subsequent exploration of it. 1) Information on demand throughput. 2) Information on selling price and product promotion. Changes in the selling price and the presence of product promotions are known to have a significant effect on demand in many industries. 3). Information on product life cycle 4) Information on the marketplace 5) Information on consumers