1. Socio-economic Characteristics and Alternative Scenarios of Growth By the External Consultant D. Tsamboulas

2. Progress of WP3 Socio-economic characteristics are revised and analyzed (although the task is not completed yet), we will present Socio-economic indicators of today Changes from 2000 to 2003 Some conclusions Report on this task will be submitted next week Alternatives Scenarios of Growth There are ideas for forecasting but still in process

3. Table 1 Socio-economic Indicators for 2003

4. Table 2 Population Changes 2000-2003

5. Table 3 GDP Growth 2000-2003

6. Table 4 Foreign Trade Annual Change (Imports) 1998-2002

7. Table 5 Foreign Trade Annual Change (Exports) 1998-2002

8. Drawing some conclusions.. Situation differs from country to country respective potentials and historical development entered into the process of transition at different times and were not affected in the same way by recent political crisis in the region Low level of trade within the TEM and TER region may be easily explained by the remaining natural “hostility” between certain countries. Despite unfavourable external conditions, most economies in the TEM and TER region, managed to preserve some of their dynamism in 2003, but there was a general moderation of the pace of growth.

9. Alternative Scenarios of Growth – Ideas Due to the many countries affected by TEM and TER system the scenario would be global, though with major emphasis on the TEM and TER countries. Also the scenario assumptions would be as realistic as possible. For the scenario, 2000 was chosen as the base year and years 1995-2000, 2001, 2002 and 2004 were used for the forecasting. Trend forecasting (one scenario with several variants) of population, economy and trade started from this base line and has been prepared on a group-country level (and in each on a country level where possible) for 2020 projections. Where projections are available they will be used for the trend forecasting.

10. Outline of report “Alternative Scenarios of Growth” ( completed by 50% ) Scope Basic assumptions for the alternative scenarios Base Scenario Description Trend extrapolation Demographic indicators Economic Indicators Trade Indicators Traffic/ demand forecasting based on the forecasted indicators Demand Drivers Model Sensitivity Analysis Truck and Coaches specificities Conclusions